AI Model:

De'Anthony Melton▼

GSW · SG

PPG

12.9

RPG

3.1

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

16.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.1

12.9

16.0

RPG+0.7

3.1

3.8

APG-0.1

2.3

2.2

SPG-0.3

1.5

1.2

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

DEN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DEN: 20 pts

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 28 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 23 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 27 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 5 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 14 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

90%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

81%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

73%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

70%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

76%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

64%

OVER 2

61%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

68%

P+R

UNDER 15.5STAKE

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.8

16.5

RPG

3.4

APG

3.5

2.1

vs ATL (H2H)8 games

PPG

9.5

RPG

4.3

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	8	33%	-6.6%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	7	71%	+17.2%	low
Brandon Williams	2	7	43%	+3.0%	low
Collin Gillespie	3	6	0%

Melton’s scoring role is elevated, but the market still leans UNDER

De'Anthony Melton is producing 12.9 PPG on the season, with his last-5 jumping to 16.0 PPG and last-10 at 16.8 PPG, but that sits above his season baseline and is a spot to be cautious on for overs. His assists and rebounds remain modest at 2.3 APG and 3.1 RPG, and his recent game log has been volatile with outputs ranging from 5 to 27 points. This is a back-to-back for both teams, and his opponent history is only 9.5 PPG across 8 games, which supports a conservative projection. With multiple books pricing his points under market, the cleanest edge is on the downside rather than chasing the hotter recent stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.0(↑ from 12.9)

RPG

3.8(↑ from 3.1)

APG

2.2(→ from 2.3)

STL+BLK

1.8(→ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 116.61 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.29, which points to a more controlled scoring environment rather than a smash spot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Anthony Melton▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	90%HIGH	1/2	50%	20	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	1/2	60%	4	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	30%	2	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	30%	2	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	50%	0	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	24	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST2.5OVER41%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PA6UNDER65%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 5x4/2020%▼

PRA20.5UNDER34%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R17OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1.5OVER11%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

FTM2UNDER45%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER9%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

De'Anthony Melton

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the strongest angle because the season mean is 12.89 PPG, the head-to-head average is 9.5 PPG over 8 games, and the value data flags a 37.4% edge on the UNDER at multiple books. The recent scoring spike is real, but it sits above his baseline and is not enough to override the market and matchup context.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dyson Daniels	2	4	4	67%	67%
CJ McCollum	2	4	7	50%	58%
Zaccharie Risacher	1	2	0	0%	0%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	2	2	33%	33%
Corey Kispert	2	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 15.590%HIGH

His season scoring mean is 12.89, below 15.5, and his vs-opponent scoring is 9.5 PPG across 8 games. The value data shows a 37.4% edge to the UNDER and strong EV, which outweighs the recent 16.0 PPG last-5.

assistsUNDER 2.581%HIGH

He averages 2.41 assists per season and 2.5 recently, so this is right around the threshold with no real cushion for the over. The season std is 1.53, which adds volatility, but the value props still favor the UNDER.

reboundsUNDER 3.578%HIGH

His season rebound mean is 3.03 and his recent mean is 3.7, so 3.5 is not a comfortable over given his baseline. The under is supported by the book pricing and his modest season role on the glass.

threesUNDER 1.573%HIGH

He averages 1.51 made threes on the season, but the recent mean is 1.8 and the standard deviation is 1.43, so this is volatile. With the market still shading the under and his season average only barely above the line, the under is the safer side.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

He averages 1.5 steals on the season, but the data does not give enough cushion to trust the over at 1.5. Given the variance and the under-leaning market, the under is the more conservative choice.

blocksUNDER 0.576%HIGH

His season block average is 0.4, which is below the 0.5 line. Even with recent 0.6 blocks over the last-5, the season baseline keeps this under favored.

stocksOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.97 stocks on the season and 2.1 over the last-10, so 1.5 is below his typical combined defensive production. This is one of the cleaner over candidates, though the confidence is only moderate because stocks can swing game to game.

turnoversOVER 261%MEDIUM

His recent logs show 2.2 turnovers per game in both the last-5 and last-20 samples, and he has hit 3-plus turnovers several times. With his usage uptick, 2.0 is reachable.

paUNDER 15.568%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is not strong enough to justify an over at 15.5 given 12.9 PPG and 2.41 APG. The combo prop also carries extra variance, so the under is preferred.

prUNDER 15.570%HIGH

He averages 12.89 points and 3.03 rebounds, putting his season PR around the line but not clearly above it. Because combo props are high-variance, the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS