AI Model:

Draymond Green▼

GSW · C

PPG

8.5

RPG

5.6

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

7.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.3

8.5

7.2

RPG-0.2

5.6

5.4

APG+1.3

5.3

6.6

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 11 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 7 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 16 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 0 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

OVER 5.5FANDUEL

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

STL

UNDER 1.5

68%

BLK

OVER 0.5

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2

71%

P+A

OVER 13.5STAKE

57%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

58%

R+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

63%

UNDER 0.5

78%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.0

7.0

RPG

5.8

4.7

APG

4.9

6.0

vs ATL (H2H)10 games

PPG

6.2

RPG

6.7

APG

7.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Victor Wembanyama	4	25	53%	+6.4%	medium
Nikola Jokić	3	16	58%	+7.8%	medium
Zion Williamson	2	12	42%	-0.1%	low
Alperen Sengun	2	11	47%

Draymond’s assist volume is steady, but the scoring floor looks fragile

Draymond Green is producing 8.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 5.3 APG on the season, with his last-5 assist mark up to 6.6 while points have slipped to 7.2. The trend is still labeled down, and his recent game log includes a 0-point outing, which reinforces the low-scoring floor. He also has a strong turnover presence at 2.3 per game recently, and his rebounding has been a little softer in the last 10 and last 20 than his season average. With both teams on a back-to-back, the minutes context matters, but the cleanest angle still comes from fading his points rather than chasing a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.2(↓ from 8.5)

RPG

5.4(→ from 5.6)

APG

6.6(↑ from 5.3)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Atlanta’s opponent defense data shows a 116.61 defensive rating and 100 pace, with no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Draymond’s vs-opponent history is 6.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 7.3 APG over 10 games, which leans more toward facilitation than scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Draymond Green▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	50%	13	✗
Draymond Green▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	6	✗
Draymond Green▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✗
Draymond Green▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	2	✓
Draymond Green▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Draymond Green▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Draymond Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Draymond Green▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	71%HIGH	—	50%	2	✗
Draymond Green▼	P+A	13.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	17	✓
Draymond Green▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	19	✗
Draymond Green▼	R+A	10.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✗
Draymond Green▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5OVER8%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.070; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

REB5.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%+8.3% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.228; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

PRA22.5OVER3%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R14.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST6.5OVER20%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM1.5OVER0%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Draymond Green

Points UNDER 8.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board: DraftKings shows the under as the best side with a 12.7% edge, and the model gives the under a 62.2% probability. His season scoring is 8.5, but the last-5 is only 7.2 and he recently posted a 0-point game, so the under matches both form and value.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Onyeka Okongwu	2	6	4	25%	25%
Dyson Daniels	2	4	8	80%	80%
Mouhamed Gueye	2	3	3	50%	75%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	2	2	0%	0%
Jock Landale	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 8.582%HIGH

The value data shows the UNDER as the best side with a 12.7% edge at DraftKings, and his season mean is 8.67 points versus just 7.2 over the last 5. He also has a recent 0-point game, which supports the lower end of the range.

reboundsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

His season rebound mean is 5.6, but the recent mean is 4.8 and the last-20 is 5.2, so the under is slightly better supported than the over. The edge is small, so confidence stays modest.

assistsOVER 5.556%MEDIUM

His last-5 assist average is 6.6 and last-10 is 6.4, both above the 5.5 line. However, the season mean is 5.33 and the line market is tightly priced, so this is only a slight lean.

threesOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.58 threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 5, which clears 1.5 by a narrow margin. The projection is basically fair, so this is not a strong edge.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He is at 0.8 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, still below a 1.5 line. Because the line is well above his normal level, the under is the safer side.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, which is enough to justify a slight over lean. The margin is thin, so confidence stays low-to-medium.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.4, but the last-5 is 1.6 and last-10 is 1.4, placing him close to the line. This is a volatile combo, so only a small lean is warranted.

turnoversOVER 271%HIGH

He is at 2.3 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 2.4 over the last 5 and last 10, so this line is consistently low relative to his profile. That makes the over the stronger side.

paOVER 13.557%MEDIUM

His points plus assists profile is supported by 8.5 PPG and 5.3 APG on the season, and the last-5 assist surge helps this combo. Still, combo props carry more variance, so the confidence remains moderate.

prUNDER 13.558%MEDIUM

Season points and rebounds sum to 14.1, but the recent scoring drop and 4.8 recent rebound mean make this less comfortable on the over. With combo volatility, the under is the more conservative side.

raOVER 10.563%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists total is 10.9, and his last-5 total is 12.0. The assist trend is carrying this prop, even though the combo nature keeps confidence from getting too high.

double_doubleUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He is not close to double-double territory in the scoring/rebounding categories, with season averages of 8.5 points and 5.6 rebounds. This is the safer side by a wide margin.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS