AI Model:

Dyson Daniels—

ATL · SF

PPG

11.5

RPG

6.6

APG

6.0

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

11.5

11.8

RPG+0.4

6.6

7.0

APG-1.6

6.0

4.4

SPG+0.3

1.9

2.2

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 6 pts

WAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs WAS: 13 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 14 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 8 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 3 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 5.5BOVADA

71%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

74%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

83%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

67%

UNDER 2

68%

P+A

UNDER 17.5STAKE

60%

R+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.0

12.1

RPG

7.3

5.5

APG

6.1

4.4

vs GSW (H2H)9 games

PPG

7.4

RPG

5.3

APG

3.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	3	25	50%	-3.3%	medium
Cade Cunningham	3	21	38%	-14.2%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	2	20	50%	-7.3%	low
Brandon Ingram	4	18	83%

Dyson Daniels’ stocks remain elite, but scoring is the tougher angle

Daniels is producing a stable all-around line with season averages of 11.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.9 steals across 33.2 minutes. His recent form is consistent in defensive counting stats, but his last 5 scoring at 11.8 and assists at 4.4 are not strong enough to justify aggressive overs, especially with several combo props sitting near fair value or worse. The home split is modestly better for rebounds, assists, and stocks, but his head-to-head output vs Golden State is lower at 7.44 points, 5.33 rebounds, and 3.89 assists over 9 games. With both teams on a back-to-back, minutes should be watched, but his steal volume still stands out as the most reliable path.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(→ from 11.5)

RPG

7.0(↑ from 6.6)

APG

4.4(↓ from 6.0)

SPG

2.2(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

His vs-opponent history is lower than his season baseline at 7.44 points, 5.33 rebounds, and 3.89 assists over 9 games. The provided matchup data also shows no specific defender matchup data, so the main edge comes from the opponent context and his own split profile rather than a named defender.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Dyson Daniels▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	28	✗
Dyson Daniels▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	71%HIGH	2/2	40%	6	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	80%	4	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	50%	4	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	34	✗
Dyson Daniels▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA26.5UNDER23%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS12.5UNDER21%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB7OVER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

3PA2UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)5/2025%▼

FTA0.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

R+A13UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

AST4UNDER9%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

STL2UNDER35%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Dyson Daniels

Assists OVER 5.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board, with a 16.1% edge and an expected value of 42.61 per 100 at Bovada. He averages 6.05 assists on the season and 6.31 at home, so the line sits below his normal production even with recent game-to-game volatility.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Draymond Green	2	7	2	33%	33%
De'Anthony Melton	2	5	0	0%	0%
Brandin Podziemski	2	4	0	0%	0%
Stephen Curry	1	3	9	44%	44%
Pat Spencer	1	2	6	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 11.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.63 and the last 20 is 10.8, while his vs-opponent scoring is only 7.44 across 9 games. The market under is already supported by the data, and the under is the more conservative side.

reboundsOVER 6.556%MEDIUM

He averages 6.6 rebounds on the season, 6.69 in the prop metrics, and 7.3 at home. The edge is thin, so this is a mild lean only.

assistsOVER 5.571%HIGH

Value data shows a 16.1% edge on the over with our projected 53.8% hit rate. His season assist mean is 6.05 and home mean is 6.31, which supports the over despite a softer last 5.

stealsOVER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 1.9 steals on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, with 2.4 stocks at home. This is his most consistent high-volume category and the line is below his season production.

blocksUNDER 0.583%HIGH

His season block average is only 0.4 and the last 5 is 0.2. With low baseline volume, the under is the safer side.

stocksOVER 2.567%MEDIUM

He averages 2.32 stocks on the season and 2.9 over the last 10, with 2.4 over the last 5. That is enough defensive activity to make an over on a 2.5-type line playable.

turnoversUNDER 268%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are modest at 1.1 over the last 10 and 1.2 over the last 20. He has only 1.0 turnover per game at home, which points to the under.

paUNDER 17.560%MEDIUM

His recent assist trend is down to 4.4 over the last 5, and his season P+A profile does not clear this line cleanly. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is preferred.

raOVER 12.558%MEDIUM

He averages 13.2 rebounds plus assists on the season and 12.9 over the last 20. The line is close, but his home split and all-around role give a slight over lean.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Dyson Daniels’ stocks remain elite, but scoring is the tougher angle

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 11.5 PTS