AI Model:

Gui Santos▼

GSW · PF

PPG

8.3

RPG

3.8

APG

2.2

L5 PPG

16.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.9

8.3

16.2

RPG+1.0

3.8

4.8

APG+2.8

2.2

5.0

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 5 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 14 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 15 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 17 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 17 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 13 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

90%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

PRA

UNDER 23.5

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.9

16.4

RPG

5.3

6.6

APG

3.8

4.5

vs ATL (H2H)5 games

PPG

1.4

RPG

1.2

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Julius Randle	4	8	46%	-7.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	6	50%	-0.6%	low
Rudy Gobert	4	6	80%	+29.4%	medium
Naz Reid	4	6	75%

Gui Santos’ surge looks real, but the market still leans too high on his scoring

Gui Santos has been far more productive lately, averaging 15.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in his last 5, with minutes jumping to 33 per game from a 19.2 season average. That said, his season baseline is much lower at 8.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, and the recent scoring spike is likely to cool toward a blend of those levels. The matchup data is not especially encouraging for a scoring overs stance: Atlanta owns a 116.61 defensive rating, and Santos has been held to just 1.4 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 1.2 assists across 5 games vs this opponent. With both teams on a back-to-back, minutes can be volatile, so the safer angles are the lower lines that still sit above his season norms.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.2(↓ from 8.3)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 3.8)

APG

5.0(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Atlanta’s listed defensive rating is 116.61, and Santos’ head-to-head production vs this opponent is only 1.4 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 1.2 assists across 5 games. Key defender data is available, but the sample is too limited to rely on a single defender angle as the main thesis.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Gui Santos▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	90%HIGH	2/2	40%	2	✓
Gui Santos▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	50%	2	✓
Gui Santos▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	40%	6	✗
Gui Santos▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✓
Gui Santos▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Gui Santos▼	PRA	23.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER2%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

STL1.5UNDER34%gbt_stealsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA26.5UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA5UNDER20%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTA4UNDER22%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A20UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST4OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PM1.5OVER1%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2.5UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

REB5UNDER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Gui Santos

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data because his season scoring average is 8.3, far below the 14.5 line. Even though his last 5 is 16.2, the value table shows a strong under edge at multiple books, and his vs-opponent scoring history is only 1.4 PPG across 5 games.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Mouhamed Gueye	2	4	4	100%	100%
Jonathan Kuminga	1	2	0	0%	0%
Dyson Daniels	2	2	5	100%	125%
Onyeka Okongwu	2	1	3	100%	150%
Corey Kispert	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.590%HIGH

He is averaging 8.3 PPG for the season, well below 14.5, and the last 5 at 16.2 is a clear spike that has already been priced in. The value data also strongly supports the under at this number.

reboundsUNDER 5.578%HIGH

His season rebounding average is 3.8, and even with recent increased minutes his last 5 is 4.8. The 5.5 line sits above both his season rate and recent output.

assistsUNDER 3.571%HIGH

Season assists are 2.2, and his recent 4.0 average is boosted by a much larger role than his season baseline. With a 2.18 season standard deviation, this is still a high-variance lane, but the under remains the better side.

threesUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.11 made threes on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, so this is closer than the other unders, but the lower season rate still favors the under. The recent surge does not fully erase the season-long baseline.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.18, and the recent 1.4 is not enough to justify a confident over. With only 0.8 stocks over the last 5, this stays slightly under the threshold.

praUNDER 23.567%MEDIUM

His recent usage has lifted PRA, but the season profile is still much lower and combo props are more volatile. Given the regression risk from 15.5 points and 33 recent MPG, the under is the safer lean.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS