AI Model:

Jalen Johnson▼

ATL · PF

PPG

22.7

RPG

10.4

APG

8.0

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

22.7

19.8

RPG-0.4

10.4

10.0

APG+1.2

8.0

9.2

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

OVER 7.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 0 ast

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 8 ast

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 9 ast

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 7 ast

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 8 ast

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 9 ast

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 12 ast

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 13 ast

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 9 ast

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 3 ast

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

OVER 9.5STAKE

66%

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

P+R

OVER 32.5STAKE

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.1

22.9

RPG

10.2

10.0

APG

8.4

7.9

vs GSW (H2H)4 games

PPG

20.0

RPG

11.8

APG

6.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dominick Barlow	4	36	33%	-15.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	29	40%	-9.2%	medium
OG Anunoby	3	24	40%	-15.9%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	22	46%

Jalen Johnson’s rebounding and playmaking remain the best angles, but points are priced fairly

Johnson is still producing elite all-around numbers on the season with 22.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, and 8.0 APG across 35.3 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 19.8 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10. His assists and rebounds remain steadier than his points, and his recent game log shows multiple high-usage triple-category outings even while the scoring has dipped. This is a back-to-back spot for both teams, and Johnson’s b2b splits are strong at 25.13 points, 11.75 rebounds, and 10.25 assists, which supports his peripheral stats more than his scoring. With no positive edge on the points market and stronger value elsewhere, the best look is on his assists or threes.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.8(↓ from 22.7)

RPG

10.0(→ from 10.4)

APG

9.2(↑ from 8.0)

Key Matchup

Against Golden State, his listed defender data does include Draymond Green with 8.4 minutes and 2 points allowed, but overall there is no single full-time defender profile here. The opponent context shows a 114.35 defensive rating and -0.227 scoring suppression, which does not strongly discourage production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jalen Johnson▼	Assists	7.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	70%
Jalen Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%
Jalen Johnson▼	Rebounds	9.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Jalen Johnson▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Jalen Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%
Jalen Johnson▼	P+R	32.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	40%

ML Scout Analysis

3PM2UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)4/1921%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER34%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x7/1937%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PRA41UNDER15%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/1942%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R32UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

P+A30UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

PTS21UNDER17%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB10UNDER29%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)OVER 4x8/1942%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST8UNDER9%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%▼

STL1UNDER14%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 8x5/1926%Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

FTM3UNDER20%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%▼

FTA4UNDER16%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Johnson

Assists OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest combination of role, form, and pricing: 8.13 season assists, 7.9 last 5, and 8.53 at home. The DraftKings value data shows a 11.9% edge and positive EV, which is better than the nearby rebound and points markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jimmy Butler III	1	7	2	25%	25%
Gui Santos	1	2	0	0%	0%
Stephen Curry	1	1	7	75%	88%
Al Horford	1	1	0	0%	0%
Quinten Post	1	1	0	0%	0%

assistsOVER 7.578%HIGH

He averages 8.13 assists on the season, 7.9 over the last 5, and 8.53 at home, all above the 7.5 line. Value data shows a 11.9% edge at DraftKings with positive EV, which outweighs the recent scoring dip.

threesOVER 1.572%HIGH

Johnson averages 1.61 made threes on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, so 1.5 is a workable number. The value table shows a 10.8% edge at DraftKings, making this a stronger market than his points prop.

reboundsOVER 9.566%MEDIUM

His season rebound mean is 10.45 and his last 5 is 10.0, so he is right in the range to clear 9.5. The edge is smaller than assists, but it still profiles better than fading his board production at this line.

pointsUNDER 22.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 22.87, but the last 5 has fallen to 19.8 and the last 10 to 19.4, signaling downward scoring momentum. The market is basically aligned with season form, and the value data is negative on the over at DraftKings.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.79 stocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so this is a live category if the line lands around 1.5. Variance is meaningful here, so confidence stays moderate.

prOVER 32.554%MEDIUM

His season averages of 22.7 points and 10.4 rebounds sum to 33.1, just above the 32.5 line. This is a higher-variance combo prop, so confidence should stay modest.

timelineOVER 7.5 AST