Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Barlow | 4 | 36 | 33% | -15.9% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 3 | 29 | 40% | -9.2% | medium |
| OG Anunoby | 3 | 24 | 40% | -15.9% | medium |
| Tobias Harris | 3 | 22 | 46% |
Johnson is still producing elite all-around numbers on the season with 22.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, and 8.0 APG across 35.3 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 19.8 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10. His assists and rebounds remain steadier than his points, and his recent game log shows multiple high-usage triple-category outings even while the scoring has dipped. This is a back-to-back spot for both teams, and Johnson’s b2b splits are strong at 25.13 points, 11.75 rebounds, and 10.25 assists, which supports his peripheral stats more than his scoring. With no positive edge on the points market and stronger value elsewhere, the best look is on his assists or threes.
Against Golden State, his listed defender data does include Draymond Green with 8.4 minutes and 2 points allowed, but overall there is no single full-time defender profile here. The opponent context shows a 114.35 defensive rating and -0.227 scoring suppression, which does not strongly discourage production.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Johnson▼ | Assists | 7.5 | OVER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% |
Jalen Johnson▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% |
Jalen Johnson▼ | Rebounds | 9.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% |
Jalen Johnson▼ | Points | 22.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
Jalen Johnson▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 60% |
Jalen Johnson▼ | P+R | 32.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% |
This is the cleanest combination of role, form, and pricing: 8.13 season assists, 7.9 last 5, and 8.53 at home. The DraftKings value data shows a 11.9% edge and positive EV, which is better than the nearby rebound and points markets.
| medium |
| Scottie Barnes | 4 | 20 | 33% | -15.9% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler III | 1 | 7 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
| Gui Santos | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Stephen Curry | 1 | 1 | 7 | 75% | 88% |
| Al Horford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Quinten Post | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
He averages 8.13 assists on the season, 7.9 over the last 5, and 8.53 at home, all above the 7.5 line. Value data shows a 11.9% edge at DraftKings with positive EV, which outweighs the recent scoring dip.
Johnson averages 1.61 made threes on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, so 1.5 is a workable number. The value table shows a 10.8% edge at DraftKings, making this a stronger market than his points prop.
His season rebound mean is 10.45 and his last 5 is 10.0, so he is right in the range to clear 9.5. The edge is smaller than assists, but it still profiles better than fading his board production at this line.
His season mean is 22.87, but the last 5 has fallen to 19.8 and the last 10 to 19.4, signaling downward scoring momentum. The market is basically aligned with season form, and the value data is negative on the over at DraftKings.
He averages 1.79 stocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so this is a live category if the line lands around 1.5. Variance is meaningful here, so confidence stays moderate.
His season averages of 22.7 points and 10.4 rebounds sum to 33.1, just above the 32.5 line. This is a higher-variance combo prop, so confidence should stay modest.