AI Model:

Onyeka Okongwu—

ATL · C

PPG

15.6

RPG

7.8

APG

3.2

L5 PPG

10.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.6

15.6

10.0

RPG-0.4

7.8

7.4

APG-0.2

3.2

3.0

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

WAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs WAS: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 25 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 21 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 10 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 18 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 4 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 12 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 6 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5STAKE

62%

REB

UNDER 8.5STAKE

57%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

65%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5

66%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

68%

P+R

UNDER 24.5STAKE

58%

P+A

OVER 18.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.8

13.7

RPG

7.8

7.0

APG

3.4

2.3

vs GSW (H2H)10 games

PPG

12.1

RPG

8.6

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Duren	4	25	65%	+17.1%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	19	71%	+18.8%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	3	19	75%	+27.1%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	18	93%

Strong multi-category profile, but scoring volatility keeps points in check

Okongwu’s season line is strong at 15.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 31.3 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 10.0 PPG over the last 5 and 13.4 over the last 10. Rebounds and assists have held up better than points, and his home splits are solid at 14.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 3.4 APG in 13 games. The matchup data does not show a specific defender matchup, but his 10-game history vs this opponent is only 12.1 PPG and 1.8 APG, which points to more caution on scoring than on boards. With a B2B on both sides and moderate variance in his prop metrics, the cleaner angle is the rebound/assist support rather than chasing an inflated points ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.0(↓ from 15.6)

RPG

7.4(→ from 7.8)

APG

3.0(→ from 3.2)

Stocks

2.2(→ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent profile shows a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a -0.55 three suppression, while his 10-game history vs this opponent is 12.1 PPG and 1.8 APG, which leans against a big scoring spike.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	0	✗
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Onyeka Okongwu▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	11	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	P+A	18.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	11	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R21UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Onyeka Okongwu

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board with a 10.6% edge at DraftKings and 11.0% at betonlineag, both comfortably above the +5% threshold. He is averaging 2.03 threes per game this season and 2.0 over the last 5, so the line is below his normal output despite the recent variance.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Quinten Post	2	7	7	50%	58%
Draymond Green	2	6	5	67%	83%
Al Horford	1	2	0	0%	0%
De'Anthony Melton	2	2	5	100%	125%
Gary Payton II	1	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 15.562%MEDIUM

His last 5 are only 10.0 PPG and his 10-game vs-opponent average is 12.1 PPG, both below this line. The season mean is 15.6, but recent scoring is well under that and the variance is high.

reboundsUNDER 8.557%MEDIUM

He averages 7.8 RPG on the season and 8.3 over the last 5, which sits just below this number. This is close, but the overall season baseline and moderate variance make the under slightly safer.

assistsOVER 2.565%MEDIUM

He has 3.2 APG on the season and 3.0 APG over the last 5, both above the line. Home production is also 3.4 APG, which supports a modest over.

threesOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.03 threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, with a 1.5 line carrying positive edge in the value data. The recent sample is volatile, but the volume is comfortably above the threshold.

stealsOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, both above a 0.5 line. The floor is supported by steady defensive activity.

blocksOVER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 blocks per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, which is well above 0.5. This remains one of his most reliable categories.

stocksOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.2 stocks and his last 5 are 2.2, so 1.5 is below his normal range. That combination gives this prop a strong floor.

prUNDER 24.558%MEDIUM

His season PR is 23.4 based on 15.6 points and 7.8 rebounds, which is already below this line. Recent scoring weakness makes the under slightly more appealing.

paOVER 18.561%MEDIUM

He combines 15.6 points with 3.2 assists for a season PA of 18.8, and his recent APG remains stable. The line is right around his season production, so the edge is modest.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS