Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | 4 | 25 | 65% | +17.1% | medium |
| Nikola Vučević | 3 | 19 | 71% | +18.8% | medium |
| Moussa Diabaté | 3 | 19 | 75% | +27.1% | medium |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 2 | 18 | 93% |
Okongwu’s season line is strong at 15.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 31.3 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 10.0 PPG over the last 5 and 13.4 over the last 10. Rebounds and assists have held up better than points, and his home splits are solid at 14.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 3.4 APG in 13 games. The matchup data does not show a specific defender matchup, but his 10-game history vs this opponent is only 12.1 PPG and 1.8 APG, which points to more caution on scoring than on boards. With a B2B on both sides and moderate variance in his prop metrics, the cleaner angle is the rebound/assist support rather than chasing an inflated points ceiling.
No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent profile shows a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a -0.55 three suppression, while his 10-game history vs this opponent is 12.1 PPG and 1.8 APG, which leans against a big scoring spike.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | Points | 15.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 6 | ✓ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | Rebounds | 8.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 5 | ✓ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 5 | ✓ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | P+R | 24.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 11 | ✓ |
Onyeka Okongwu▼ | P+A | 18.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 11 | ✗ |
This is the clearest value on the board with a 10.6% edge at DraftKings and 11.0% at betonlineag, both comfortably above the +5% threshold. He is averaging 2.03 threes per game this season and 2.0 over the last 5, so the line is below his normal output despite the recent variance.
| +30.7% |
| low |
| Nic Claxton | 3 | 17 | 47% | -0.8% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinten Post | 2 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 58% |
| Draymond Green | 2 | 6 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Al Horford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| De'Anthony Melton | 2 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
| Gary Payton II | 1 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
His last 5 are only 10.0 PPG and his 10-game vs-opponent average is 12.1 PPG, both below this line. The season mean is 15.6, but recent scoring is well under that and the variance is high.
He averages 7.8 RPG on the season and 8.3 over the last 5, which sits just below this number. This is close, but the overall season baseline and moderate variance make the under slightly safer.
He has 3.2 APG on the season and 3.0 APG over the last 5, both above the line. Home production is also 3.4 APG, which supports a modest over.
He averages 2.03 threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, with a 1.5 line carrying positive edge in the value data. The recent sample is volatile, but the volume is comfortably above the threshold.
He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, both above a 0.5 line. The floor is supported by steady defensive activity.
He averages 1.1 blocks per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, which is well above 0.5. This remains one of his most reliable categories.
His season average is 2.2 stocks and his last 5 are 2.2, so 1.5 is below his normal range. That combination gives this prop a strong floor.
His season PR is 23.4 based on 15.6 points and 7.8 rebounds, which is already below this line. Recent scoring weakness makes the under slightly more appealing.
He combines 15.6 points with 3.2 assists for a season PA of 18.8, and his recent APG remains stable. The line is right around his season production, so the edge is modest.