AI Model:

Will Richard▲

GSW · SF

PPG

6.9

RPG

2.6

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

4.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.3

6.9

4.6

RPG0.0

2.6

APG-0.4

1.4

1.0

SPG+0.4

1.2

1.6

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

DEN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 0 pts

MEM

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MEM: 21 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 4 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 5 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 0 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 7 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 11 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

65%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

PRA

UNDER 19

60%

P+A

UNDER 8.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.1

7.1

RPG

2.8

2.5

APG

1.0

1.9

vs ATL (H2H)1 games

PPG

0.0

RPG

1.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Stephon Castle	3	8	33%	-14.2%	medium
Anthony Edwards	2	7	79%	+19.2%	low
Josh Giddey	2	6	64%	+9.6%	low
Payton Pritchard	2	6	50%

Minutes are up, but scoring efficiency still points to an under

Will Richard has seen his role tick up recently, with 25.3 minutes over his last 10 and 28.6 over his last 5, but the production has not fully followed. His season scoring average is 6.9 PPG, while the last 5 have dipped to 4.6 PPG, suggesting the recent minutes boost has not translated into a reliable scoring ceiling. The matchup profile is not especially favorable for a big scoring spike either, with Atlanta carrying a 116.61 defensive rating and a 0.29 scoring suppression mark, while Richard’s 7.5-point market sits above both his season mean and recent form. The best statistical case is for conservative unders on points and rebounds, with steals remaining his most volatile swing category.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.6(↓ from 6.9)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.6)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.4)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Atlanta’s team defense context shows a 116.61 defensive rating and 0.29 scoring suppression, which does not point to an obvious boost for his scoring prop.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Will Richard▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	60%	9	✗
Will Richard▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Will Richard▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Will Richard▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	90%	1	✓
Will Richard▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	1	✓
Will Richard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Will Richard▼	PRA	19	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	15	✓
Will Richard▼	P+A	8.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✗

ML Scout Analysis

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/1844%▼

P+R9.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x8/1844%▼

P+A8OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1850%▼

Featured Pick

Will Richard

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the strongest edge on the board from the provided value data, with the under projected at a 15.0% edge and 29.12 EV per 100 at DraftKings. His season 6.9 PPG and last-5 4.6 PPG are both below the line, so the under aligns with both form and model support.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
CJ McCollum	2	5	10	44%	50%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	3	5	100%	125%
Jonathan Kuminga	1	1	0	0%	0%
Zaccharie Risacher	1	1	0	0%	0%
Keaton Wallace	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.582%HIGH

His season mean is 6.9 PPG and his last 5 are down at 4.6 PPG, below the 7.5 line. The value data also shows a 15.0% edge on the under with strong EV.

reboundsUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 RPG on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, which is right on the line but not a strong over case. The under is supported by his modest rebound profile and the higher-variance nature of a 2.5 line.

assistsUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.4 APG and recent form is 1.0 APG over the last 5. That makes the under the more conservative side versus a 1.5 assist threshold.

threesUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He is at 1.07 threes per game for the season and only 0.8 over the last 5. The current 1.5 line is above both his season and recent production.

stealsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.2 and he has 1.6 steals over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. This is his clearest over-style category based on the data.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He combines 1.2 steals and 0.1 blocks per game for a 1.34 season stocks average, with 1.6 over the last 5. The floor is decent, but the standard deviation profile keeps confidence only moderate.

praUNDER 1960%MEDIUM

Using season means, his projection is 6.9 points + 2.6 rebounds + 1.4 assists = 10.9 PRA, well below a typical 19.0 projection. Combo props are high variance, so the under is the safer read.

paUNDER 8.567%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists is 8.3, which sits just under the line, and his last 5 are even lower at 5.6 PA. That makes the under the more logical side.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS