Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White | 2 | 11 | 38% | -8.1% | low |
| Luka Dončić | 2 | 10 | 43% | -8.1% | low |
| Jalen Brunson | 2 | 10 | 44% | -3.9% | low |
| Amen Thompson | 2 | 9 | 0% | -41.4% |
Aaron Nesmith’s season line sits at 13.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 29.4 MPG, but his last-10 scoring is basically in line at 13.4 PPG and the trend is down. The recent 20.4 PPG burst over the last 5 is a clear spike above his season norm, so regression is a real concern rather than a stable new baseline. He does get a usage boost from teammate absences, but the matchup data shows San Antonio has allowed only 7.0 PPG to him across 10 games, and the provided point props are shaded toward the under at multiple books. With a questionable right ankle tag and no blowout-friendly edge in the data, his projection is more restrained than the recent hot streak suggests.
He has specific defender matchup data available, with Devin Vassell listed for 4.9 minutes and 2 points allowed, Stephon Castle for 2.6 minutes and 0 points allowed, and De'Aaron Fox for 1.2 minutes and 5 points allowed. The head-to-head sample is not friendly overall, as he has averaged 7.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 1.3 APG across 10 games versus this opponent.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nesmith▼ | Points | 13.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 5 | ✓ |
Aaron Nesmith▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
Aaron Nesmith▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Aaron Nesmith▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Aaron Nesmith▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Aaron Nesmith▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Aaron Nesmith▼ | P+R | 19.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 7 | ✓ |
Aaron Nesmith▼ | P+A | 16.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest value on the board because the value props show a 5.3% edge with 10.73 EV per 100 at William Hill, and other books also favor the under. His season and last-10 scoring both sit around 13.5, while the last-5 spike to 20.4 looks like a likely regression spot rather than a new normal.
| low |
| AJ Green | 3 | 9 | 60% | -1.4% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Champagnie | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Keldon Johnson | 2 | 4 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Dylan Harper | 2 | 3 | 10 | 67% | 75% |
| De'Aaron Fox | 2 | 3 | 7 | 50% | 58% |
| Stephon Castle | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 13.6 PPG and last-10 is 13.4, while the last-5 spike to 20.4 PPG looks regression-prone. Value data also flags UNDER at 13.5 with a 5.3% edge and 10.73 EV per 100.
His season average is 4.2 rebounds, but the recent mean is only 2.9 and the last-5 is 2.4. The rebound market shown is not strong enough to justify an over given the recent dip.
He averages 2.0 assists on the season and just 1.3 over the last 10, so 2.5 is above his usual production. The season_std of 1.75 also shows variance, but the baseline still points under.
He averages 2.27 made threes, but the last-10 is 1.8 and the opponent data includes a negative three suppression indicator. The recent dip makes the under the safer side at this number.
Season blocks are 0.5 and recent blocks are 0.4 to 0.6 range, which does not support a strong over. With a standard low-volume block profile, the under is the cleaner play.
His season stocks average is 1.12 and recent is 0.9, both below a 1.5 threshold. This is a volume-sensitive combo that doesn’t project well for an over.
Points plus rebounds season baseline is 17.82 using the provided means, while recent scoring and rebounding are both down. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is preferred.
His season points-plus-assists baseline is 15.6, and recent assist production is only 1.3 over the last 10. This leaves some room for minutes-based upside, but not enough to make the over compelling.