AI Model:

Aaron Nesmith▼

IND · SG

PPG

13.6

RPG

4.2

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

20.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.8

13.6

20.4

RPG-1.8

4.2

2.4

APG-0.6

2.0

1.4

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

NYK

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs NYK: 11 pts

WAS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs WAS: 3 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 2 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 7 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 29 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 32 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 14 pts

POR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs POR: 15 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 2.5

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

P+R

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

P+A

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.5

12.4

RPG

3.3

3.4

APG

1.8

1.9

vs SAS (H2H)10 games

PPG

7.0

RPG

2.9

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	2	11	38%	-8.1%	low
Luka Dončić	2	10	43%	-8.1%	low
Jalen Brunson	2	10	44%	-3.9%	low
Amen Thompson	2	9	0%	-41.4%

Nesmith’s scoring upside is real, but the market still leans to the under

Aaron Nesmith’s season line sits at 13.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 29.4 MPG, but his last-10 scoring is basically in line at 13.4 PPG and the trend is down. The recent 20.4 PPG burst over the last 5 is a clear spike above his season norm, so regression is a real concern rather than a stable new baseline. He does get a usage boost from teammate absences, but the matchup data shows San Antonio has allowed only 7.0 PPG to him across 10 games, and the provided point props are shaded toward the under at multiple books. With a questionable right ankle tag and no blowout-friendly edge in the data, his projection is more restrained than the recent hot streak suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.4(↓ from 13.6)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 4.2)

APG

1.4(↓ from 2.0)

3PM

1.8(↓ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

He has specific defender matchup data available, with Devin Vassell listed for 4.9 minutes and 2 points allowed, Stephon Castle for 2.6 minutes and 0 points allowed, and De'Aaron Fox for 1.2 minutes and 5 points allowed. The head-to-head sample is not friendly overall, as he has averaged 7.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 1.3 APG across 10 games versus this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Aaron Nesmith▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	0	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	60%	0	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	7	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

PTS14UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

REB2OVER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

PRA18.5UNDER20%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER55%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x5/2025%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

AST1UNDER10%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM2UNDER26%gbt_three_pmAvoid (5/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER29%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Nesmith

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board because the value props show a 5.3% edge with 10.73 EV per 100 at William Hill, and other books also favor the under. His season and last-10 scoring both sit around 13.5, while the last-5 spike to 20.4 looks like a likely regression spot rather than a new normal.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Julian Champagnie	2	6	2	0%	0%
Keldon Johnson	2	4	3	50%	75%
Dylan Harper	2	3	10	67%	75%
De'Aaron Fox	2	3	7	50%	58%
Stephon Castle	1	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.6 PPG and last-10 is 13.4, while the last-5 spike to 20.4 PPG looks regression-prone. Value data also flags UNDER at 13.5 with a 5.3% edge and 10.73 EV per 100.

reboundsUNDER 3.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.2 rebounds, but the recent mean is only 2.9 and the last-5 is 2.4. The rebound market shown is not strong enough to justify an over given the recent dip.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 assists on the season and just 1.3 over the last 10, so 2.5 is above his usual production. The season_std of 1.75 also shows variance, but the baseline still points under.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.27 made threes, but the last-10 is 1.8 and the opponent data includes a negative three suppression indicator. The recent dip makes the under the safer side at this number.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

Season blocks are 0.5 and recent blocks are 0.4 to 0.6 range, which does not support a strong over. With a standard low-volume block profile, the under is the cleaner play.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.12 and recent is 0.9, both below a 1.5 threshold. This is a volume-sensitive combo that doesn’t project well for an over.

prUNDER 19.557%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds season baseline is 17.82 using the provided means, while recent scoring and rebounding are both down. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is preferred.

paUNDER 16.555%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 15.6, and recent assist production is only 1.3 over the last 10. This leaves some room for minutes-based upside, but not enough to make the over compelling.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS