AI Model:

Andrew Nembhard▲

IND · PG

PPG

17.0

RPG

2.8

APG

7.3

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.6

17.0

13.4

RPG-0.2

2.8

2.6

APG-1.1

7.3

6.2

SPG+0.5

0.9

1.4

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

NYK

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs NYK: 24 pts

WAS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs WAS: 5 pts

DAL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DAL: 22 pts

PHI

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs PHI: 23 pts

CHA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs CHA: 20 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 5 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 17 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 14 pts

PHX

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHX: 23 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 8 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5STAKE

66%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

63%

AST

OVER 6.5BOVADA

74%

3PM

OVER 1.5BETONLINEAG

57%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

OVER 2.5

58%

PRA

UNDER 30.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.4

14.9

RPG

2.9

3.3

APG

7.4

7.6

vs SAS (H2H)7 games

PPG

10.9

RPG

4.0

APG

5.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	3	21	56%	+5.8%	medium
Payton Pritchard	4	19	38%	-6.7%	medium
Jalen Brunson	3	17	63%	+14.1%	medium
Jaylen Brown	3	15	53%

Nembhard’s assist role is strong, but scoring looks capped

Andrew Nembhard enters this matchup with a season line of 17.0 PPG and 7.3 APG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 13.4 PPG over the last 5 while his minutes have dipped to 26.4. The absence of Bennedict Mathurin should keep ball-handling and creation responsibility elevated, and his value-prop data shows strong assist upside with a 14.5% edge at 6.5 assists. However, his head-to-head scoring vs this opponent is only 10.857142857142858 PPG across 7 games, and the opponent profile suggests some scoring suppression, so the safer angle is leaning away from points overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↓ from 17.0)

APG

6.2(↓ from 7.3)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data to target. The Spurs’ opponent profile shows a 111.59 defensive rating with scoring suppression of -0.859, which leans slightly against efficient scoring outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Andrew Nembhard▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	25	✗
Andrew Nembhard▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%	7	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Andrew Nembhard▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Andrew Nembhard▼	PRA	30.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	33	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A24.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)13/2065%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Andrew Nembhard

Assists OVER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value spot because the edge data is strongest here at 14.5% with positive EV. His season average is 7.25 assists, and the absence of Bennedict Mathurin should preserve a strong playmaking role even if his scoring stays modest.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
De'Aaron Fox	2	9	13	67%	72%
Dylan Harper	2	6	4	50%	50%
Julian Champagnie	2	2	2	50%	50%
Harrison Barnes	2	2	3	50%	75%
Keldon Johnson	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 18.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.04 and last 5 is only 13.4, below this 18.5 line. He also averages just 10.857142857142858 PPG in 7 games vs this opponent, which supports the under.

reboundsUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.81 rebounds per game for the season and 2.3 over the last 5, both below 3.5. His recent minutes are down at 27.8, which limits rebound volume.

assistsOVER 6.574%HIGH

Teammate absences should keep his on-ball creation high, and the value data shows a 14.5% edge with +EV on the over. He has a season mean of 7.25 assists and 7.4 away assists, both above 6.5.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.88 made threes on the season and 1.9 over the last 5, with a home mean of 2.07. The line is modest at 1.5, though the recent sample is not strong enough for high confidence.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is plausible. Still, steals are volatile and confidence should stay modest.

turnoversOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He has been at 2.6 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.9 over the last 20, with added creation responsibilities likely keeping turnover chances elevated. This is a reasonable over if the line is 2.5.

praUNDER 30.562%MEDIUM

His season baseline projects closer to the high-20s than a 30.5 combo mark when weighted against recent minutes and scoring dip. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS