Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams | 4 | 18 | 55% | -2.9% | medium |
| Vince Williams Jr. | 3 | 14 | 50% | -10.9% | medium |
| Collin Gillespie | 3 | 13 | 61% | -4.0% | medium |
| Anthony Edwards | 3 | 12 | 67% |
De'Aaron Fox is averaging 18.9 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 3.8 RPG on the season, with his last 10 up at 20.4 PPG and 6.6 APG despite the overall trend marked down. He’s been better at home, posting 20.8 PPG and 6.5 APG in 10 home games, which fits tonight’s spot in San Antonio. Indiana’s defense context is workable, but the combination of season baseline and recent production still points more toward a modest scoring bump than a big assist spike. With no major teammate usage boost beyond Harrison Ingram’s minimal absence, the cleanest angle is Fox’s points over the listed low number, while assists are closer to fair value.
Indiana’s defense context is not especially restrictive, with a 120.24 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Fox also has a solid head-to-head profile at 21.857142857142858 PPG and 5.285714285714286 APG in 7 games. There is specific defender matchup data available, but the names listed have limited minutes against him, so the edge is more about team context than one isolated defender.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Points | 17.5 | OVER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 14 | ✗ |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Assists | 6.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 7 | ✗ |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 3 | ✗ |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 2 | ✓ |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
This is the strongest combination of price, baseline, and recent form: Fox averages 18.85 PPG on the season and 20.4 over the last 10, plus the value props data shows an 18.0% edge at DraftKings. Even with some regression caution, the line is well below both his season and recent scoring levels.
| medium |
| Cason Wallace | 5 | 12 | 69% | +13.1% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | 2 | 6 | 11 | 100% | 133% |
| Aaron Nesmith | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Pascal Siakam | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
| T.J. McConnell | 2 | 3 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Ben Sheppard | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 18.85 PPG and his last 10 is 20.4 PPG, both above 17.5. The value data also shows a strong OVER edge at this line, including a 18.0% best edge at DraftKings.
Fox is at 6.27 APG for the season and 6.6 over the last 10, but the last 5 has dipped to 5.6 and his home mean is 6.62, making 6.5 close to fair. The value data leans UNDER at 6.5, and his 2.56 season standard deviation suggests moderate volatility.
He’s averaging 3.78 RPG on the season and 4.1 over the last 10, with 4.8 over the last 5. The home/away split is not a concern here because his season profile sits right above the line and the value data shows a strong OVER edge.
Fox averages 1.83 threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, which is above 1.5. Confidence stays moderate because the prop has higher variance, but the recent and season rates support the OVER.
His season stocks average is 1.48 and recent mean is 1.4, both just below 1.5. With a season standard deviation of 1.19, this is volatile, but the baseline favors the UNDER.