AI Model:

De'Aaron Fox▼

SAS · PG

PPG

18.9

RPG

3.8

APG

6.3

L5 PPG

20.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.1

18.9

20.0

RPG+1.0

3.8

4.8

APG-0.7

6.3

5.6

SPG-0.2

1.2

1.0

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 29 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 20 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 25 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 27 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 18 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 23 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.8

14.7

RPG

3.5

3.1

APG

6.5

6.0

vs IND (H2H)7 games

PPG

21.9

RPG

4.9

APG

5.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Williams	4	18	55%	-2.9%	medium
Vince Williams Jr.	3	14	50%	-10.9%	medium
Collin Gillespie	3	13	61%	-4.0%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	12	67%

Fox’s scoring props look live, but assists lean a bit more conservative

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 18.9 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 3.8 RPG on the season, with his last 10 up at 20.4 PPG and 6.6 APG despite the overall trend marked down. He’s been better at home, posting 20.8 PPG and 6.5 APG in 10 home games, which fits tonight’s spot in San Antonio. Indiana’s defense context is workable, but the combination of season baseline and recent production still points more toward a modest scoring bump than a big assist spike. With no major teammate usage boost beyond Harrison Ingram’s minimal absence, the cleanest angle is Fox’s points over the listed low number, while assists are closer to fair value.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.0(↑ from 18.9)

APG

5.6(↓ from 6.3)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 3.8)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Indiana’s defense context is not especially restrictive, with a 120.24 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Fox also has a solid head-to-head profile at 21.857142857142858 PPG and 5.285714285714286 APG in 7 games. There is specific defender matchup data available, but the names listed have limited minutes against him, so the edge is more about team context than one isolated defender.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Aaron Fox▼	Points	17.5	OVER	78%HIGH	2/2	70%	14	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	7	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25UNDER8%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS14.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST6UNDER23%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER38%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

FTM1UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

REB3UNDER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER43%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

De'Aaron Fox

Points OVER 17.5HIGH

This is the strongest combination of price, baseline, and recent form: Fox averages 18.85 PPG on the season and 20.4 over the last 10, plus the value props data shows an 18.0% edge at DraftKings. Even with some regression caution, the line is well below both his season and recent scoring levels.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Andrew Nembhard	2	6	11	100%	133%
Aaron Nesmith	2	3	0	0%	0%
Pascal Siakam	2	3	2	25%	25%
T.J. McConnell	2	3	2	50%	50%
Ben Sheppard	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 17.578%HIGH

His season mean is 18.85 PPG and his last 10 is 20.4 PPG, both above 17.5. The value data also shows a strong OVER edge at this line, including a 18.0% best edge at DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 6.559%MEDIUM

Fox is at 6.27 APG for the season and 6.6 over the last 10, but the last 5 has dipped to 5.6 and his home mean is 6.62, making 6.5 close to fair. The value data leans UNDER at 6.5, and his 2.56 season standard deviation suggests moderate volatility.

reboundsOVER 3.567%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 3.78 RPG on the season and 4.1 over the last 10, with 4.8 over the last 5. The home/away split is not a concern here because his season profile sits right above the line and the value data shows a strong OVER edge.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

Fox averages 1.83 threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, which is above 1.5. Confidence stays moderate because the prop has higher variance, but the recent and season rates support the OVER.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.48 and recent mean is 1.4, both just below 1.5. With a season standard deviation of 1.19, this is volatile, but the baseline favors the UNDER.

timelineOVER 17.5 PTS