AI Model:

Devin Vassell—

SAS · SF

PPG

14.3

RPG

3.8

APG

2.5

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

14.3

14.6

RPG-1.2

3.8

2.6

APG+0.3

2.5

2.8

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 14 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 12 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.8

16.9

RPG

3.1

4.7

APG

2.7

2.8

vs IND (H2H)9 games

PPG

14.2

RPG

4.1

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	18	58%	+6.2%	medium
Devin Booker	4	13	58%	+6.2%	medium
Christian Braun	2	12	38%	-18.8%	low
Derrick Jones Jr.	3	12	67%

Vassell’s scoring is playable, but the split data points to a quieter night at home

Devin Vassell is holding a stable scoring profile with 14.3 PPG on the season and 13.7 PPG over his last 10, while his last 5 sits at 14.6. The bigger red flag is the home split: 10.8 PPG at home versus 16.9 PPG away, which matters here because he’s in San Antonio. Indiana’s defense has a 120.24 rating and a 100 pace, but no specific defender matchup data should be assumed beyond the listed usage and minutes; the key context is that Vassell’s recent production is solid but not explosive. With the market offering 13.5 on points and his home baseline lagging his season average, the clearest lean is toward the under on points, while threes remain the most viable over look.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(→ from 14.3)

RPG

2.6(↓ from 3.8)

APG

2.8(→ from 2.5)

3PM

2.6(→ from 2.5)

Key Matchup

Indiana’s defense sits at a 120.24 defensive rating with a 100 pace, so the environment is workable but not especially soft. There is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond the listed defender table, so the read is driven more by team context, home/away splits, and Vassell’s recent production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Devin Vassell▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Devin Vassell▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Devin Vassell▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Devin Vassell▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Devin Vassell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%
Devin Vassell▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	20%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS14UNDER16%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

3PA6.5UNDER28%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

PRA19.5UNDER15%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

REB4.5UNDER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

AST3UNDER10%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2.5UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM1UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R18OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Devin Vassell

Points UNDER 13.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of the data: his season scoring is 14.3, but his home split falls sharply to 10.8 PPG and his last 10 is only 13.7. The line is right near his seasonal range, and with the general under lean in prop modeling, the under gets the edge.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 13.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 14.3, but the home split drops to 10.8 PPG and his last 10 is 13.7. With the line at 13.5 and the over bias warning, the under is the safer side despite solid recent minutes.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.52 made threes on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, so the line is right around his true mean. The away split is stronger at 3.4 FG3M, but since this is a home game the confidence stays moderate.

assistsUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.46 and recent mean is 2.7, but the market line of 2.5 is still slightly above the season baseline. The under is reinforced by the relatively low-variance role and the fact that combo props are more volatile.

reboundsOVER 3.554%MEDIUM

Vassell averages 3.8 rebounds on the season and 3.7 over the last 10, so 3.5 is a manageable number. The home split is lower at 3.1, which keeps this from being a high-confidence play.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.21 and recent mean is 1.1, both below the 1.5 threshold. The last 10 and last 20 confirm he’s been closer to 1 than 2, making the under the cleaner side.

prUNDER 13.556%MEDIUM

His points plus rebounds season average is roughly 18.1 using the provided means, but the available book line is much lower than that context suggests and the home scoring split is weak. Because combo props are high-variance, this stays a cautious lean rather than a strong play.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS