AI Model:

Jarace Walker▼

IND · SF

PPG

11.3

RPG

5.2

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

14.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.7

11.3

14.0

RPG+1.8

5.2

7.0

APG+1.2

2.4

3.6

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

MEM

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MEM: 21 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 8 pts

PHX

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHX: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 14 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs POR: 10 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

REB

UNDER 6.5BETRIVERS

74%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

69%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

PRA

UNDER 28

60%

P+R

UNDER 16.5STAKE

63%

P+A

UNDER 14.5

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.4

14.6

RPG

6.7

7.7

APG

3.0

3.9

vs SAS (H2H)4 games

PPG

4.5

RPG

0.5

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Brandon Ingram	4	14	59%	+14.2%	medium
Khris Middleton	2	11	64%	+15.0%	low
Bilal Coulibaly	3	8	50%	+7.9%	medium
Tristan da Silva	3	7	20%

Walker’s role is up, but the market still leans to the under

Jarace Walker has been trending heavier lately, with his last 5 games at 14.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 3.6 APG in 31.8 MPG, all above his season marks of 11.3/5.2/2.4. The added opportunity is real with Bennedict Mathurin (18.5 PPG, 31.2 MPG) out, but his game log also shows volatility, including 10 points on 33 minutes and 16 points with 5 turnovers in the last two outings. San Antonio’s team defensive profile is not extreme, but the posted lines and value data still favor caution, especially with his vs opponent sample sitting at just 4.5 PPG and 9.25 MPG across 4 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.0(↑ from 11.3)

RPG

7.0(↑ from 5.2)

APG

3.6(↑ from 2.4)

Stocks

1.0(→ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key_defenders, which are too limited to identify a true on-ball matchup. San Antonio’s opponent defense shows a 111.59 defensive rating with pace of 100 and no major scoring-suppression spike, but the head-to-head sample is weak for Walker at 4.5 PPG in 4 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jarace Walker▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%	21	✗
Jarace Walker▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	50%	4	✓
Jarace Walker▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✗
Jarace Walker▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✓
Jarace Walker▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Jarace Walker▼	PRA	28	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	29	✗
Jarace Walker▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	0%	25	✗
Jarace Walker▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	25	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

REB5.5OVER41%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)12/1963%▼

PRA25.5UNDER17%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)11/1958%▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/1942%▼

P+A19OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)10/1953%▼

AST3.5UNDER19%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)10/1953%▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmAvoid (6/20)OVER 7x13/1968%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)UNDER 5x7/1937%▼

3PA5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

FTM2UNDER26%gbtAvoid (5/20)7/1937%▼

FTA3UNDER20%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Jarace Walker

Rebounds UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board with a 20.9% edge and 42.16 EV per 100 at Betrivers. Walker’s season rebound average is 5.2, and even his recent 6.4 over the last 10 sits right at the line, making the under the most defensible play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Harrison Barnes	1	3	3	50%	75%
Keldon Johnson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Carter Bryant	2	2	0	0%	0%
Lindy Waters III	2	2	0	0%	0%
Julian Champagnie	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.571%HIGH

Value data shows the best side is UNDER with a 18.3% edge and our_prob_under of 0.741. His season mean is 11.3 PPG, and even with the recent bump to 14.0 PPG, his recent average is still below a 14.5 line.

reboundsUNDER 6.574%HIGH

The best side is UNDER with a 20.9% edge and strong EV of 42.16 per 100. His season rebound average is 5.2 and his recent 6.4 is only slightly above the line, so this stays a stronger under than over.

assistsUNDER 3.569%MEDIUM

The value card points to UNDER with a 14.2% edge and our_prob_under of 0.687. He is averaging 2.4 assists on the season and 3.3 over the last 10, which is better but still not enough to justify the higher line with confidence.

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.67 made threes on the season and 1.9 over his last 10, so the over is supported by volume. This is still a lower-confidence play because his three-point market is close and the value data does not give a positive edge here.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.17 and last 5 is 1.0, both below a 1.5 threshold. The recent spike in minutes has not translated into consistent multi-category defensive production, so the under is the safer side.

praUNDER 2860%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, a projected PRA around 18.9 is well below a line in the high 20s. Combo props carry higher variance, and his recent uptick is not enough to make an over attractive without stronger value support.

prUNDER 16.563%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 16.5 exactly from 11.3 PPG and 5.2 RPG, but recent form is the main reason this is close. Given the book pricing and the general under bias, the under is the cleaner side.

paUNDER 14.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists is 13.7, below a projected 14.5 line, even though recent minutes have pushed his scoring and playmaking upward. This is a volatile combo, so the under is preferred unless the line drops.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS