AI Model:

Jay Huff▼

IND · C

PPG

9.4

RPG

3.8

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

10.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.0

9.4

10.4

RPG-1.8

3.8

2.0

APG-0.7

1.3

0.6

SPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

BPG-0.3

1.9

1.6

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

MEM

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MEM: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 16 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHX: 10 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 16 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 6 pts

POR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs POR: 11 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

BLK

UNDER 2.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3.5

59%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

13.5

RPG

3.4

4.2

APG

1.5

1.6

vs SAS (H2H)8 games

PPG

2.4

RPG

0.9

APG

0.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Moussa Diabaté	3	21	36%	-10.8%	medium
Neemias Queta	4	19	62%	+14.3%	medium
Jaxson Hayes	2	17	50%	+2.8%	low
Maxime Raynaud	2	15	57%

Huff’s blocks stay appealing, but rebounds are the cleaner edge

Jay Huff is coming in with a season line of 9.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 1.9 BPG, and his recent scoring has been stronger at 10.4 PPG over the last 5 and 12.8 over the last 10. The minutes trend is solid too, with 23.3 MPG over the last 10 versus 20.7 for the season, but his last-5 rebounds have dipped to 2.0, which is below both his season mark and his recent 3.8 rebound average over the last 10. Against San Antonio, the matchup profile is mixed: the opponent pace is 100 with a 111.59 defensive rating, and Huff’s own history vs this opponent is very small at 2.375 PPG and 0.875 RPG in 8 games, so the current role and line value matter more than prior head-to-head. With both Bennedict Mathurin and Johnny Furphy out, his scoring usage has some support, but the best price still looks to be on the rebound under at the available number.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.4(↑ from 9.4)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 3.8)

APG

0.6(↓ from 1.3)

BPG

1.6(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent shows a 111.59 defensive rating with 100 pace. Huff’s prior results vs this opponent are low at 2.375 PPG and 0.875 RPG across 8 games, so the matchup data does not strongly support a ceiling outcome.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jay Huff▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	6	✓
Jay Huff▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Jay Huff▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	4	✗
Jay Huff▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✓
Jay Huff▼	Blocks	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✓
Jay Huff▼	STL+BLK	3.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Jay Huff▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R14.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

REB4UNDER15%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER50%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+A12.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST1.5OVER18%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER34%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

FTA0.5UNDER10%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

PRA14UNDER19%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

BLK1UNDER39%gbt_blocksAvoid (6/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Jay Huff

Rebounds UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the best blend of price, form, and value. The market data shows a 7.8% edge on the under at DraftKings with positive EV, and Huff’s last-5 rebound average is only 2.0 compared to his 3.8 season mean, making 3.5 a favorable threshold to fade.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Luke Kornet	2	5	2	100%	100%
Victor Wembanyama	1	2	7	38%	44%
Kelly Olynyk	1	2	2	100%	100%
Dylan Harper	2	1	10	80%	80%
Harrison Barnes	1	1	3	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 9.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.44 PPG and the book line is 9.5, which makes this essentially a coin flip with slight lean under. Recent scoring is higher, but the over-bias warning and a 5.82 season standard deviation argue for caution rather than chasing the last-10 uptick.

reboundsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

This is the clearest value on the card: the value data shows a 7.8% edge on UNDER with expected value of 17.19 per 100 at DraftKings. He has averaged 3.8 RPG for the season but only 2.0 RPG over the last 5, and his recent role has not translated into steady boards.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages just 1.3 APG on the season and 1.0 APG over the last 10, well below 2.5. The high standard deviation relative to his mean keeps confidence capped, but the under is still the more supported side.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

Huff averages 1.43 threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, so the volume is there. Confidence stays moderate because the line sits right near his baseline and three-point production can swing quickly.

blocksUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He is a strong shot-blocker at 1.9 BPG season-long, but 2.5 is a steep number and the last-5 mark is 1.6. That makes the under the safer side despite his overall blocks upside.

stocksUNDER 3.559%MEDIUM

His combined season average is 2.44 stocks and the last 10 sits at 2.3, both below 3.5. Because stocks are high-variance, this is not a high-confidence play, but the under is still the more conservative projection.

prUNDER 13.557%MEDIUM

His season sums to 13.2 PR using 9.4 points and 3.8 rebounds, which is just under the line, and his recent rebound dip reduces the path to the over. Combo props are volatile, so confidence stays modest.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS