AI Model:

Julian Champagnie▲

SAS · PF

PPG

11.1

RPG

5.8

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

11.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.1

11.1

11.0

RPG-1.4

5.8

4.4

APG-0.1

1.5

1.4

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 16 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 20 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 8 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 7 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 17 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 14 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

59%

OVER 1.5

54%

PRA

UNDER 18

56%

P+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

55%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.9

11.2

RPG

5.1

4.6

APG

1.5

1.7

vs IND (H2H)4 games

PPG

5.8

RPG

4.0

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	14	63%	+6.5%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	14	40%	-13.5%	medium
Jake LaRavia	4	13	50%	-3.5%	medium
Desmond Bane	2	11	54%

Champagnie’s scoring floor is steady, but rebound and combo props look fragile

Julian Champagnie is holding a consistent role at 27.7 MPG this season with 11.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 1.5 APG, and his last 10 games are right in line at 11.2/5.5/1.5. The recent form is stable rather than explosive, and his vs-opponent sample is notably weak at 5.75 PPG and 17.5 MPG across 4 games. With Indiana’s listed team absences and a fast 100 pace, there is some room for counting stats, but his season numbers and recent output still point to more modest production than the market may imply.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.0(→ from 11.1)

RPG

4.4(↓ from 5.8)

APG

1.4(→ from 1.5)

3PM

2.4(→ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

Indiana’s opponent defense data shows a 120.24 defensive rating and 100 pace, which supports opportunity, but Champagnie’s own head-to-head sample is weak at 5.75 PPG, 4 RPG, and 0.5 APG across 4 games. There is no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Julian Champagnie▼	Points	10.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	7	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	PRA	18	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	19	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	P+A	10.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	12	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A12.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+R16.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Julian Champagnie

Points OVER 10.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest plus-EV angle in the data, with a 5.6% edge at DraftKings and a season scoring average of 11.1 PPG. His last 10 games sit at 11.2 PPG, so the line is slightly below his baseline even after accounting for normal variance.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pascal Siakam	2	6	12	71%	71%
Aaron Nesmith	2	3	2	33%	33%
Andrew Nembhard	2	2	5	0%	0%
Bennedict Mathurin	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jarace Walker	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 10.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.1 PPG and the prop sits at 10.5, while his last 10 is 11.2 and last 5 is 11.0. The value data shows a 5.6% edge on OVER at DraftKings, which clears the +EV threshold.

reboundsUNDER 5.557%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 RPG for the season, but the last 5 drops to 4.4 RPG and last 20 is 4.8 RPG, which is below this line. The market pricing is very tight, so the slight recent downtrend supports the under.

assistsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

Champagnie’s season mean is 1.48 APG and recent mean is 1.5, which is basically in line with the 1.5 line. With low assist volume and no clear statistical edge, the under is the safer side.

threesOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.42 made threes per game and 2.5 over the last 10, so this is close to his core output. The value sheet shows a 6.2% edge on the OVER at DraftKings.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 SPG on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is well within his normal range. The probability of at least one steal is solid even with volatility.

blocksUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season block rate is only 0.4 BPG, below the 0.5 line. Even though the last 5 shows 0.8, the longer sample still points to a lower baseline.

stocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.23 stocks for the season and 1.1 over the last 10, both below 1.5. This combo-style prop has added variance, so the under is preferred.

turnoversOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

His last 5 turnover average is 1.4 and last 10 is 1.1, but the season profile is still around a low-usage role with enough touches to flirt with 2. This is a low-confidence over and should be played cautiously.

praUNDER 1856%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, 11.1 points + 5.8 rebounds + 1.5 assists equals 18.4, but his recent rebound dip pulls the projection closer to the line. Because combo props are high-variance, the under gets the edge in a tighter read.

paOVER 10.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists average is 12.58, and the recent mix remains around 12.7 based on 11.2 PPG and 1.5 APG. The line is modestly below his typical output, but combo volatility keeps confidence moderate.

prUNDER 14.557%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds average 16.88, but the last 5 rebounds decline to 4.4 makes the true median a little less robust. Since the line is elevated, the under is the safer position.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS