AI Model:

Pascal Siakam▼

IND · PF

PPG

24.0

RPG

6.7

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

27.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.4

24.0

27.4

RPG-0.7

6.7

6.0

APG-0.7

3.9

3.2

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

OVER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

CHI

2026-01-28

2026-01-28 vs CHI: 20 pts

ATL

2026-01-31

2026-01-31 vs ATL: 25 pts

HOU

2026-02-02

2026-02-02 vs HOU: 27 pts

MIL

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs MIL: 19 pts

TOR

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs TOR: 18 pts

NYK

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs NYK: 30 pts

DAL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DAL: 30 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 29 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 26 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 22 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 24.5STAKE

66%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

68%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5STAKE

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

71%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

67%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2

61%

PRA

UNDER 32.5STAKE

59%

P+A

OVER 27.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.2

25.2

RPG

6.2

7.0

APG

4.1

3.9

vs SAS (H2H)11 games

PPG

20.5

RPG

9.5

APG

5.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	4	25	50%	+1.6%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	19	41%	-7.5%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	18	29%	-19.8%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	16	63%

Siakam's role stays heavy, but the current number still looks reachable

Pascal Siakam is producing 24.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 3.9 APG on the season, with his last 10 at 24.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 3.3 APG. The recent scoring bump to 27.4 PPG over the last 5 is real, but it comes with a slight minutes dip to 31.4 MPG and his overall trend is marked down, so regression risk is still in play. His matchup history against San Antonio is solid on the glass and playmaking side at 20.545454545454547 PPG, 9.454545454545455 RPG, and 5.454545454545454 APG across 11 games, while the Spurs' opponent defense shows a 111.59 defensive rating and 100 pace. With Bennedict Mathurin and Johnny Furphy out, Siakam should keep a strong usage floor, but his questionable right knee tag adds some uncertainty.

Stat Trends

PPG

27.4(↑ from 24.0)

RPG

6.0(↓ from 6.7)

APG

3.2(↓ from 3.9)

Stocks

1.4(→ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. San Antonio's team defense shows a 111.59 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.859, while Victor Wembanyama is the only notable defender listed with 6.5 minutes and 14 points allowed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Pascal Siakam▼	Points	24.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	14	✗
Pascal Siakam▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	2	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	0	✗
Pascal Siakam▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	60%	1	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Pascal Siakam▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	21	✓
Pascal Siakam▼	P+A	27.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R30.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A28OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

PTS25.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

REB6UNDER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST4UNDER25%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA4UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTA6.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA34UNDER29%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER17%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

FTM4UNDER22%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Pascal Siakam

Points OVER 24.5MEDIUM

His season average is 23.96 points, last 10 is 24.6, and his recent 5-game scoring climbs to 27.4, so 24.5 is a fair number rather than a cheap one. The matchup and teammate absences support his usage, but the questionable knee tag and regression risk keep this below high confidence.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Harrison Barnes	2	8	0	0%	0%
Keldon Johnson	2	4	7	75%	88%
Victor Wembanyama	1	3	6	60%	60%
Julian Champagnie	2	2	4	40%	40%
De'Aaron Fox	2	2	7	43%	50%

pointsOVER 24.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 23.96 and last 10 is 24.6, so 24.5 is close but attainable, especially with teammate absences keeping his role elevated. The recent 27.4 PPG surge supports the over, though the questionable knee and under-friendly over-bias keep confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 7.568%MEDIUM

He is averaging 6.7 rebounds on the season and only 5.3 over the last 10, which sits below 7.5. His head-to-head rebound average versus San Antonio is strong at 9.454545454545455, but that is the main reason this stays closer to moderate confidence rather than a stronger under.

assistsOVER 3.563%MEDIUM

Siakam's season assist mean is 3.87 and his home mean is 4.0, both right above 3.5. His vs-opponent assist average of 5.454545454545454 also supports the over, but the recent 3.3 last-10 mark keeps it from being a high-confidence play.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.75 threes per game this season and 1.2 over the last 5, so the season baseline still points to 2+ makes often enough. Recent form is a little softer, so this is playable but not aggressive.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

His season steals average is 1.1 and last 10 is also 1.1, both below 1.5. Even with recent games showing some 2-steal performances, the baseline does not justify the over.

blocksUNDER 0.567%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season and only 0.2 over the last 10. That makes 0.5 a tougher threshold unless the game script gives him unusually strong rim chances.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.53, but the last 10 is 1.3 and the last 20 is 1.2, so the recent trend sits below this area. Because the combo is volatile, confidence stays capped.

turnoversOVER 261%MEDIUM

He is at 2.3 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 2.5 over the last 20, which supports at least 2.0. The elevated usage from injuries can keep turnovers on the higher side.

praUNDER 32.559%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 34.7, but the recent scoring is balanced by weaker rebounds and assists, and combo props are higher variance. This line is close enough that the under is the safer side given the caution around combo markets.

paOVER 27.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 27.9 using 23.96 PPG and 3.87 APG, which is right on the number. The assistant workload plus scoring role make this viable, but not a premium edge.

timelineOVER 24.5 PTS