Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes | 4 | 25 | 50% | +1.6% | medium |
| Paolo Banchero | 3 | 19 | 41% | -7.5% | medium |
| Evan Mobley | 3 | 18 | 29% | -19.8% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 2 | 16 | 63% |
Pascal Siakam is producing 24.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 3.9 APG on the season, with his last 10 at 24.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 3.3 APG. The recent scoring bump to 27.4 PPG over the last 5 is real, but it comes with a slight minutes dip to 31.4 MPG and his overall trend is marked down, so regression risk is still in play. His matchup history against San Antonio is solid on the glass and playmaking side at 20.545454545454547 PPG, 9.454545454545455 RPG, and 5.454545454545454 APG across 11 games, while the Spurs' opponent defense shows a 111.59 defensive rating and 100 pace. With Bennedict Mathurin and Johnny Furphy out, Siakam should keep a strong usage floor, but his questionable right knee tag adds some uncertainty.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. San Antonio's team defense shows a 111.59 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.859, while Victor Wembanyama is the only notable defender listed with 6.5 minutes and 14 points allowed.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pascal Siakam▼ | Points | 24.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 14 | ✗ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 5 | ✓ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | — | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 1 | ✗ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | PRA | 32.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 21 | ✓ |
Pascal Siakam▼ | P+A | 27.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 19 | ✗ |
His season average is 23.96 points, last 10 is 24.6, and his recent 5-game scoring climbs to 27.4, so 24.5 is a fair number rather than a cheap one. The matchup and teammate absences support his usage, but the questionable knee tag and regression risk keep this below high confidence.
| low |
| Chet Holmgren | 2 | 12 | 50% | +1.6% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Barnes | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Keldon Johnson | 2 | 4 | 7 | 75% | 88% |
| Victor Wembanyama | 1 | 3 | 6 | 60% | 60% |
| Julian Champagnie | 2 | 2 | 4 | 40% | 40% |
| De'Aaron Fox | 2 | 2 | 7 | 43% | 50% |
His season mean is 23.96 and last 10 is 24.6, so 24.5 is close but attainable, especially with teammate absences keeping his role elevated. The recent 27.4 PPG surge supports the over, though the questionable knee and under-friendly over-bias keep confidence moderate.
He is averaging 6.7 rebounds on the season and only 5.3 over the last 10, which sits below 7.5. His head-to-head rebound average versus San Antonio is strong at 9.454545454545455, but that is the main reason this stays closer to moderate confidence rather than a stronger under.
Siakam's season assist mean is 3.87 and his home mean is 4.0, both right above 3.5. His vs-opponent assist average of 5.454545454545454 also supports the over, but the recent 3.3 last-10 mark keeps it from being a high-confidence play.
He averages 1.75 threes per game this season and 1.2 over the last 5, so the season baseline still points to 2+ makes often enough. Recent form is a little softer, so this is playable but not aggressive.
His season steals average is 1.1 and last 10 is also 1.1, both below 1.5. Even with recent games showing some 2-steal performances, the baseline does not justify the over.
He averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season and only 0.2 over the last 10. That makes 0.5 a tougher threshold unless the game script gives him unusually strong rim chances.
His season stocks average is 1.53, but the last 10 is 1.3 and the last 20 is 1.2, so the recent trend sits below this area. Because the combo is volatile, confidence stays capped.
He is at 2.3 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 2.5 over the last 20, which supports at least 2.0. The elevated usage from injuries can keep turnovers on the higher side.
His season PRA is 34.7, but the recent scoring is balanced by weaker rebounds and assists, and combo props are higher variance. This line is close enough that the under is the safer side given the caution around combo markets.
His season points-plus-assists profile is 27.9 using 23.96 PPG and 3.87 APG, which is right on the number. The assistant workload plus scoring role make this viable, but not a premium edge.