AI Model:

Stephon Castle▼

SAS · SG

PPG

16.4

RPG

5.0

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

17.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.4

16.4

17.8

RPG+2.0

5.0

7.0

APG+2.1

7.1

9.2

SPG-0.8

1.2

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 13 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 30 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 15 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 23 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 3 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

57%

AST

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

67%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

63%

OVER 2.5

55%

P+A

OVER 23.5STAKE

54%

R+A

OVER 11.5STAKE

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.5

12.9

RPG

6.4

3.7

APG

7.4

7.2

vs IND (H2H)3 games

PPG

15.0

RPG

4.7

APG

5.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	22	59%	-2.0%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	4	21	34%	-15.9%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	20	43%	-9.4%	medium
Cade Cunningham	2	17	30%

Castle’s playmaking remains the strongest angle, but scoring is more volatile

Stephon Castle is producing 16.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 7.1 APG on the season, with his last 5 jumping to 17.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 9.2 APG. The passing surge is real, but his recent scoring trend is mixed and his overall trend is marked down, while his status is questionable with a right hip issue. At home he has been better than away, averaging 19.5 PPG and 7.4 APG in home games, but the opponent profile is still a bit suppressive and his head-to-head line against this matchup is only 15.0 PPG and 5.7 APG across 3 games. The cleanest angle is assists, but combo props carry extra variance and should be treated conservatively.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.8(↑ from 16.4)

APG

9.2(↑ from 7.1)

RPG

7.0(↑ from 5.0)

Stocks

0.6(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data, so no specific defender matchup data. The opponent context is mixed: Indiana’s defense is allowing a 120.24 rating, but the scoring suppression mark of 1.123 suggests some resistance overall.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Stephon Castle▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Stephon Castle▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Stephon Castle▼	Assists	7.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Stephon Castle▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Stephon Castle▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Stephon Castle▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%
Stephon Castle▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%
Stephon Castle▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Stephon Castle▼	R+A	11.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	80%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA31.5OVER2%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PA4UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%▼

P+R22.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

FTM3.5UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST9OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

FTA4UNDER4%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Stephon Castle

Assists OVER 7.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest production lane because Castle is at 7.1 APG for the season, 8.5 over the last 10, and 9.2 over the last 5. His home split is also 7.4 APG, which supports the over more than his points line does.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pascal Siakam	1	5	5	50%	50%
Andrew Nembhard	1	2	2	50%	50%
Bennedict Mathurin	1	1	0	0%	0%
Aaron Nesmith	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jay Huff	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.4 PPG and the last 10 is 15.7, so the 16.5 line is slightly above his baseline. The last 5 at 17.8 is higher, but the injury question mark and down trend keep the under in play.

reboundsOVER 4.557%MEDIUM

He averages 5.0 RPG on the season and 5.5 over the last 10, with 6.4 RPG at home. That keeps 4.5 slightly below his normal output despite some game-to-game variance.

assistsOVER 7.560%MEDIUM

Castle is at 7.1 APG for the season and 8.5 over the last 10, while his home split is 7.4 APG. The recent playmaking run makes 7.5 reachable even though the under has some book support.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.12 made threes per game for the season and 1.5 over the last 5, but the season baseline is still below 1.5. With a 1.08 standard deviation, the profile is volatile enough to prefer the under at this line.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season but only 0.4 over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10. That recent dip makes 1.5 a tough ask.

stocksUNDER 263%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.52, but the last 5 is just 0.6 and the last 10 is 0.8. With that recent slide, 2.0 is above his current form.

turnoversOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.5 turnovers per game on the last 20 and 2.6 over the last 5. The ball-handling load is high enough that 2.5 is a fair over target.

paOVER 23.554%MEDIUM

His season point-assist average is 23.5 exactly on the listed line, and the last 5 production in points plus assists is elevated. This is a higher-variance combo, so confidence stays modest.

raOVER 11.552%MEDIUM

He averages 12.1 rebounds plus assists on the season and 12.5 over the last 5. The number is supported by recent role, but combo volatility keeps the edge small.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS