AI Model:

Victor Wembanyama▼

SAS · C

PPG

24.3

RPG

11.1

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

28.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.5

24.3

28.8

RPG+0.1

11.1

11.2

APG+0.5

2.9

3.4

SPG+0.4

1.0

1.4

BPG-0.5

2.9

2.4

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

25.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 25 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 38 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 27 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 29 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 39 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 32 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 34 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5STAKE

55%

REB

UNDER 11.5STAKE

66%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

52%

3PM

UNDER 2.5STAKE

58%

BLK

OVER 2.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 4.5

53%

OVER 2.5

54%

PRA

UNDER 38.5

51%

P+R

UNDER 37.5STAKE

57%

R+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

28.2

21.4

RPG

12.0

10.7

APG

3.0

3.5

vs IND (H2H)4 games

PPG

23.5

RPG

11.3

APG

3.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Draymond Green	4	26	37%	-20.8%	medium
Jusuf Nurkić	3	23	38%	-18.7%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	20	67%	+15.9%	medium
Daniel Gafford	2	15	44%

Wembanyama’s scoring ceiling is high, but the rebound under looks strongest

Victor Wembanyama is averaging 24.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 2.9 APG this season, with his last 5 jumping to 28.8 PPG and 11.2 RPG. That scoring spike is higher than his season baseline, but his last 20 points average is 24.8 and his recent trend is down, which points to some regression from the hottest stretch. In this matchup, the opponent defense has a 120.24 defensive rating and his head-to-head line is 23.5 PPG and 11.25 RPG across 4 games, while his home split is materially stronger than his away split. The best angle is on the board where the market is pricing a bit too much rebound volume relative to his distribution and the value model.

Stat Trends

PPG

28.8(↑ from 24.3)

RPG

11.2(→ from 11.1)

APG

3.4(↑ from 2.9)

Stocks

3.8(→ from 4.0)

Key Matchup

The available defender data shows Pascal Siakam with just 1.5 minutes logged as a key defender and 5 points allowed, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. The opponent defense profile is porous overall, with a 120.24 defensive rating and pace of 100, which supports production but does not eliminate regression risk at inflated lines.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Victor Wembanyama▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	20	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	Rebounds	11.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	8	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	Blocks	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	STL+BLK	4.5	UNDER	53%MEDIUM	—	40%	6	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	PRA	38.5	UNDER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	34	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	P+R	37.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	28	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	R+A	13.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A29.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A15.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R38UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Victor Wembanyama

Rebounds UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: his season average is 11.1 rebounds, his last 20 is 11.3, and the market line is 11.5. The value props show a 9.0% edge on the under at multiple books, with our model giving the under a 0.59 probability at the 11.5 line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jay Huff	1	2	3	33%	50%
Pascal Siakam	1	1	2	33%	33%
Micah Potter	1	1	0	0%	0%
Andrew Nembhard	1	1	4	50%	50%
Jarace Walker	1	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 25.555%MEDIUM

His season mean is 24.3 points and his last 20 is 24.8, so 25.5 is slightly above his baseline despite the recent 28.8 surge. The matchup and home split support scoring, but the recent trend is down and the over has only modest pricing support.

reboundsUNDER 11.566%MEDIUM

He averages 11.1 RPG on the season and 11.3 over the last 20, which sits just below this line. The value data strongly supports the under at 11.5, including a 9.0% edge at multiple books and a 0.59 win probability for the under.

assistsOVER 2.552%MEDIUM

He is at 2.9 APG for the season and 3.2 over the last 20, so 2.5 is below his normal production. Recent games also show 3.4 APG over the last 5, though the standard deviation is high.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.94 made threes on the season and 2.5 over the last 20 is still below the 2.5 line. The recent 3.1 made threes over the last 5 looks elevated relative to the season mean, so regression risk is real.

blocksOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.9 blocks per game on the season and 3.4 over the last 20, making 2.5 a favorable threshold. His shot-block volume has stayed elite even in lower-minute games.

stocksUNDER 4.553%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 3.96 and the last 20 is 4.6, which puts a 4.5 line right near the recent average but above the season baseline. The high variance keeps confidence modest.

turnoversOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.5 over the last 10, so this is a live over if the book sets the line at 2.5. His usage has been high enough to carry turnover risk.

praUNDER 38.551%MEDIUM

Using season means, his PRA projection lands around 38.3, and the combo prop carries extra variance. With combo markets historically less reliable, the under is slightly safer if the line is 38.5.

prUNDER 37.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 35.4, while the line sits at 37.5. Even with recent scoring up, the market is still asking for a clear beat over his baseline.

raUNDER 13.567%MEDIUM

He averages 14.0 rebounds plus assists on the season, but the best value signal is still to the under at this number because rebounds are the stronger component and the under has the clearest edge in the value data. This is the strongest combo fade among the available markets.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS