Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Williams | 4 | 21 | 83% | +15.9% | medium |
| Rudy Gobert | 3 | 20 | 50% | -17.4% | medium |
| Maxime Raynaud | 3 | 14 | 75% | +7.6% | medium |
| Alperen Sengun | 2 | 14 | 90% |
Deandre Ayton is averaging 12.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 0.9 BPG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 12.2 PPG over the last 5 and 10.6 PPG over the last 10, matching the overall downtrend in his game log. His rebounding remains the more stable lane at 8.3 season RPG, and he has averaged 8.5 RPG at home and 11.1 RPG in 10 games vs this opponent. The matchup is not a clear shutdown spot, but Orlando’s profile and Ayton’s recent minutes/usage suggest a modest projection rather than a breakout.
The provided matchup data shows no specific defender matchup data for Ayton. Orlando has a 114.28 defensive rating and a 100 pace, which points to a slower environment than a track meet and slightly limits counting-stat upside.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deandre Ayton▼ | Points | 16.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% | 9 | ✓ |
Deandre Ayton▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 12 | ✓ |
Deandre Ayton▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 83%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Deandre Ayton▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
Deandre Ayton▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Deandre Ayton▼ | P+R | 25.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 21 | ✓ |
This is well above his season average of 12.6 PPG and his last-10 average of 10.6 PPG, while the recent trend is clearly down. Even with strong historical production vs this opponent, his current form does not support a 16.5-point projection.
| low |
| Moussa Diabaté | 2 | 14 | 86% | +18.3% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 2 | 12 | 9 | 57% | 64% |
| Paolo Banchero | 2 | 2 | 12 | 50% | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva | 2 | 2 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Goga Bitadze | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Desmond Bane | 2 | 2 | 17 | 73% | 77% |
He is at 12.6 PPG on the season and only 10.6 PPG over the last 10, well below 16.5. The recent trend is down, and his game log includes multiple low-scoring outings, including 6 and 7 points in two of his last four.
Ayton’s season mean is 8.3 RPG, with 8.5 RPG at home and 11.1 RPG in 10 games vs this opponent. This is his steadiest category, though recent form has dipped to 7.2 RPG over the last 10, so confidence stays moderate.
He averages just 0.9 APG for the season and 1.0 APG over the last 5. A 1.5 line is above his normal production, and his assist volume is too low to support the over consistently.
Ayton averages 0.9 BPG on the season and 1.0 BPG over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is well within range. His recent block rate supports a modest over despite some volatility.
He averages 1.52 stocks on the season and 1.4 over the last 20, which is close to the line. This is a higher-variance prop, so the edge is smaller and confidence stays limited.
His season PR is 20.88 using 12.6 points and 8.3 rebounds, and recent scoring has been weaker at 10.6 PPG over the last 10. The rebound component helps, but the current scoring level makes 25.5 a tough ask.