AI Model:

Deandre Ayton▼

LAL · C

PPG

12.6

RPG

8.3

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

12.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.4

12.6

12.2

RPG-0.7

8.3

7.6

APG+0.1

0.9

1.0

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 9 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 16 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 6 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5STAKE

72%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

60%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

83%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

66%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

P+R

UNDER 25.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

9.2

RPG

8.5

6.8

APG

0.9

1.0

vs ORL (H2H)10 games

PPG

17.6

RPG

11.1

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	21	83%	+15.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	20	50%	-17.4%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	14	75%	+7.6%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	14	90%

Ayton’s rebounding looks steadier than his scoring, with value leaning to the under on points

Deandre Ayton is averaging 12.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 0.9 BPG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 12.2 PPG over the last 5 and 10.6 PPG over the last 10, matching the overall downtrend in his game log. His rebounding remains the more stable lane at 8.3 season RPG, and he has averaged 8.5 RPG at home and 11.1 RPG in 10 games vs this opponent. The matchup is not a clear shutdown spot, but Orlando’s profile and Ayton’s recent minutes/usage suggest a modest projection rather than a breakout.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.2(↓ from 12.6)

RPG

7.6(↓ from 8.3)

APG

1.0(→ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

The provided matchup data shows no specific defender matchup data for Ayton. Orlando has a 114.28 defensive rating and a 100 pace, which points to a slower environment than a track meet and slightly limits counting-stat upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Deandre Ayton▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%	9	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	12	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	P+R	25.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	21	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PTS11.5UNDER27%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB6.5UNDER15%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x13/1968%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.417▼

PRA19.5UNDER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Deandre Ayton

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is well above his season average of 12.6 PPG and his last-10 average of 10.6 PPG, while the recent trend is clearly down. Even with strong historical production vs this opponent, his current form does not support a 16.5-point projection.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	12	9	57%	64%
Paolo Banchero	2	2	12	50%	50%
Tristan da Silva	2	2	3	50%	75%
Goga Bitadze	1	2	0	0%	0%
Desmond Bane	2	2	17	73%	77%

pointsUNDER 16.572%HIGH

He is at 12.6 PPG on the season and only 10.6 PPG over the last 10, well below 16.5. The recent trend is down, and his game log includes multiple low-scoring outings, including 6 and 7 points in two of his last four.

reboundsOVER 7.560%MEDIUM

Ayton’s season mean is 8.3 RPG, with 8.5 RPG at home and 11.1 RPG in 10 games vs this opponent. This is his steadiest category, though recent form has dipped to 7.2 RPG over the last 10, so confidence stays moderate.

assistsUNDER 1.583%HIGH

He averages just 0.9 APG for the season and 1.0 APG over the last 5. A 1.5 line is above his normal production, and his assist volume is too low to support the over consistently.

blocksOVER 0.566%MEDIUM

Ayton averages 0.9 BPG on the season and 1.0 BPG over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is well within range. His recent block rate supports a modest over despite some volatility.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.52 stocks on the season and 1.4 over the last 20, which is close to the line. This is a higher-variance prop, so the edge is smaller and confidence stays limited.

prUNDER 25.567%MEDIUM

His season PR is 20.88 using 12.6 points and 8.3 rebounds, and recent scoring has been weaker at 10.6 PPG over the last 10. The rebound component helps, but the current scoring level makes 25.5 a tough ask.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS