AI Model:

Desmond Bane—

ORL · SG

PPG

20.6

RPG

4.1

APG

4.2

L5 PPG

20.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.4

20.6

20.2

RPG-0.7

4.1

3.4

APG-0.8

4.2

3.4

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

WAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs WAS: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 30 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 18 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 35 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 22 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 24 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5STAKE

64%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

60%

3PM

UNDER 2.5BOVADA

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

68%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

UNDER 2

61%

PRA

UNDER 29.5

57%

P+A

UNDER 23.5STAKE

56%

R+A

UNDER 8.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.6

24.4

RPG

3.7

3.9

APG

3.9

vs LAL (H2H)15 games

PPG

17.7

RPG

4.0

APG

5.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	3	17	43%	-15.0%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	16	59%	+8.0%	medium
Pelle Larsson	4	14	50%	-3.9%	medium
Aaron Nesmith	3	14	56%

Bane’s usage stays elevated, but the matchup leans more toward balanced production than a true scoring spike

Desmond Bane is sitting at 20.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 4.2 APG on the season while logging 34.2 MPG, and his recent production has stayed solid with 22.3 PPG over the last 10 and 24.0 PPG over the last 20. The biggest factor is role: Anthony Black and Franz Wagner are both out, which should keep Bane’s minutes and on-ball involvement strong, especially in playmaking. The matchup data is mixed, though: his 15-game history vs this opponent is only 17.7 PPG, but he has averaged 5.47 APG, so assists may be the cleaner angle than pure points. Orlando’s opponent defense data also shows a 115.14 defensive rating allowed with a 0.045 scoring suppression and a -0.381 three-point suppression, which adds some caution to the scoring ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.2(→ from 20.6)

APG

3.4(↓ from 4.2)

RPG

3.4(↓ from 4.1)

3PM

2.6(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is available, but it does not provide a reliable single primary defender assignment here, so no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 115.14 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.381 three-point suppression, which modestly caps Bane’s scoring and makes the assist path more attractive than the points path.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Desmond Bane▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	5	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Desmond Bane▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%	1	✗
Desmond Bane▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	4	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%	5	✗
Desmond Bane▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	21	✓
Desmond Bane▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	17	✓
Desmond Bane▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	9	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Desmond Bane

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the slate for Bane: DraftKings shows -160 on the over with a 7.9% edge and 12.83 EV per 100. He is averaging 4.16 assists on the season, 4.3 over the last 10, and teammate absences should help keep his creation role elevated.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Marcus Smart	2	6	0	0%	0%
Jake LaRavia	2	5	3	20%	30%
Rui Hachimura	2	5	0	0%	0%
LeBron James	2	4	7	100%	117%
Austin Reaves	2	3	6	60%	60%

pointsUNDER 24.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.56 points and his last 20 is 24.0, so 24.5 sits above his core baseline despite strong minutes. The opponent history is also muted at 17.7 PPG across 15 games, so I’d lean under unless the volume spikes.

assistsOVER 3.570%HIGH

He averages 4.16 APG for the season and 4.3 over the last 10, while teammate absences should preserve usage and creation responsibility. This is also the best value prop on the board with a 7.9% edge and 12.83 EV per 100.

reboundsUNDER 4.560%MEDIUM

Bane’s season rebound average is 4.15 and his last 5 is 3.4, so 4.5 is slightly above his normal output. The opponent split does not show a strong rebound upside, making the under the safer side.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.06 made threes on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, which is below the 2.5 line. Orlando’s three suppression of -0.381 adds another reason to avoid the over.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Bane is at 1.0 steals per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, but 1.5 is still a high bar for a defensive stat with volatility. His season stocks average is 1.47, so the full steals over is not ideal.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

His season block rate is only 0.4 and his last 10 is 0.1, well below a 0.5 line. This is the clearest under on the board.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.47 and last 10 is 1.3, so the total sits just under the benchmark. With that kind of profile, the under is the more conservative play.

turnoversUNDER 261%MEDIUM

Bane’s last 5 turnover average is 1.4 and last 10 is 1.3, both below 2.0. Even with elevated handling from absences, the recent baseline does not justify an over.

praUNDER 29.557%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, his projection lands around 29.0 PRA, and combo props carry extra variance. Since his recent scoring is fine but not explosive enough to safely clear an elevated combo line, the under is preferable.

paUNDER 23.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists total is 24.76, but his opponent history is much more assist-heavy than scoring-heavy. With the line at 23.5 and three of his last five games below 23.5 PA, this is a fragile over.

raUNDER 8.566%MEDIUM

Bane averages only 8.25 rebounds plus assists on the season and 7.7 over the last 5. The 8.5 line asks for a near-best-case rebounding or assist night, which is not the default expectation.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS