AI Model:

Jalen Suggs▼

ORL · PG

PPG

13.8

RPG

3.8

APG

5.2

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

13.8

14.6

RPG+0.6

3.8

4.4

APG0.0

5.2

SPG-0.5

1.9

1.4

BPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

WAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs WAS: 10 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 17 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 20 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 28 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 14 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 8 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 9 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 1.5

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3.5

55%

OVER 2.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 18.5STAKE

56%

P+A

UNDER 19.5STAKE

57%

UNDER 0.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.5

12.4

RPG

4.2

3.8

APG

7.1

4.1

vs LAL (H2H)4 games

PPG

17.3

RPG

5.8

APG

5.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	20	62%	+15.3%	medium
Norman Powell	5	12	65%	+9.6%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	2	11	32%	-14.7%	low
Donovan Mitchell	3	11	44%

Suggs gains usage with key Orlando absences, but scoring remains a thin edge

Jalen Suggs is in a stronger role environment with Anthony Black and Franz Wagner both out, and his home splits support a better all-around line than his season averages. He has averaged 13.5 PPG, 7.1 APG, and 2.6 SPG at home, compared with 12.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, and 1.2 SPG away, while his last 10 show 14.6 PPG and 5.2 APG on 29.3 MPG. The matchup data is not especially restrictive, but the Lakers-side defender note is limited to no specific defender matchup data beyond Austin Reaves’ small sample. Because his scoring line is right near his season mean and the three-point environment is mixed, the better angles are the modest under/over combinations rather than chasing a big scoring overshoot.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(→ from 13.8)

APG

5.2(→ from 5.2)

RPG

4.4(↑ from 3.8)

SPG

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Austin Reaves is the only listed key defender, but the data is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond his small sample. Orlando’s opponent defense numbers are moderate, with a 115.14 defensive rating and -0.381 three suppression, which makes clean shooting volume less appealing.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Suggs▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	14	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	STL+BLK	3.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	17	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	20	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Suggs

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the strongest value spot in the dataset, with a 10.9% edge and +21.48 EV at FanDuel on the over. Suggs is averaging 3.8 rebounds on the season, 4.4 over the last 5, and 4.2 at home, so the 3.5 line is below his typical output.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Austin Reaves	1	6	9	100%	117%
Luke Kennard	1	1	3	100%	150%
Marcus Smart	1	1	0	0%	0%
Luka Dončić	1	1	7	100%	100%
Deandre Ayton	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 14.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.8 points and the recent 14.6 is only slightly above it, while the season trend is down and the over bias warning favors caution. The 14.5 line is close enough to the mean that the under has a slight edge, especially without a strong opponent-specific boost in the data.

reboundsOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

This is the clearest value spot: the value data shows a 10.9% edge and +21.48 EV on the over at FanDuel, and his home average is 4.2 rebounds. Recent form is also supportive at 4.4 RPG over the last 5.

assistsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.2 APG and the recent mean is also 5.2, so this line sits above his baseline. The value sheet also points to the under on a 6.5 assist line with a 10.0% edge, which reinforces that assists are more likely to settle around his normal range than spike.

threesUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 2.0 threes per game on the season, below this 2.5 line, and the opponent three suppression data is unfavorable at -0.381. Recent volume is decent, but the line still asks for an above-baseline shooting night.

stealsOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 steals per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, which is comfortably above this threshold. His home steal rate rises to 2.6, giving the over solid statistical support.

blocksOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, both above the 0.5 line. The recent sample is stable enough to support a small over lean.

stocksUNDER 3.555%MEDIUM

Even though his season stocks average is 2.63, the recent 2.5 and last 20 at 3.1 do not make 3.5 a clean over. This is a volatile combo category, so the conservative lean is under.

turnoversOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He has been at 2.5 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.6 over the last 5, so this is a fair over spot despite the variance. If his minutes stay near the recent 29.3 MPG, turnover volume should stay elevated.

prUNDER 18.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 17.63, which is below the 18.5 line. The recent role bump helps, but combo props carry added variance and this line is still a bit high relative to his baseline.

paUNDER 19.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists average is 19.04, essentially right around the line, but the over bias warning and his downtrend push this slightly to the under. The home boost helps, but not enough to make this a strong over.

double_doubleUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

He does not show consistent double-double output in the provided game log, and his season averages are not near double digits in two categories at once. The path is there on a strong all-around night, but the under is still the safer side.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS