AI Model:

LeBron James▲

LAL · PF

PPG

21.3

RPG

5.9

APG

6.9

L5 PPG

20.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.9

21.3

20.4

RPG+1.7

5.9

7.6

APG-1.1

6.9

5.8

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

23.5

PHX

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHX: 15 pts

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 22 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 16 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 18 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 30 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 19 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 6.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 6.5STAKE

64%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

OVER 3

57%

PRA

UNDER 33.5

54%

P+A

UNDER 30.5STAKE

60%

P+R

UNDER 30.5STAKE

58%

R+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

57%

OVER 0.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.1

20.8

RPG

5.5

6.0

APG

7.8

6.4

vs ORL (H2H)8 games

PPG

25.8

RPG

7.4

APG

5.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
John Collins	4	14	100%	+28.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	12	89%	+37.6%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	11	75%	-1.3%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	10	43%

LeBron’s scoring ceiling is supported, but passing looks capped in Orlando

LeBron James is averaging 21.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 6.9 APG on the season, with recent production still steady at 20.4 PPG and 5.8 APG over his last 5. His matchup history against Orlando is strong, posting 25.75 PPG and 7.375 RPG across 8 games, but this opponent also has a low pace (100) and a strong three-point suppression profile. With Anthony Black and Franz Wagner out, the matchup environment helps, but the posted assist markets are still higher than his recent 6.3 APG and season 6.9 APG baseline. The best edge appears to be on rebounds and modestly on points, while assists lean under at the current numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.4(↓ from 21.3)

RPG

7.6(↑ from 5.9)

APG

5.8(↓ from 6.9)

Stocks

1.8(→ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Orlando’s team defensive profile includes a 114.28 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a very strong three-point suppression mark, which supports a slightly tougher scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
LeBron James▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	12	✓
LeBron James▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	6	✗
LeBron James▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
LeBron James▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
LeBron James▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✓
LeBron James▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
LeBron James▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✓
LeBron James▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
LeBron James▼	PRA	33.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓
LeBron James▼	P+A	30.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	16	✓
LeBron James▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	18	✓
LeBron James▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	10	✗
LeBron James▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

3PM1.5UNDER5%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 9x4/2020%+23.1% edge▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

PTS23.5UNDER43%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)3/2015%+28.5% edge▼

REB7.5UNDER24%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)5/2025%+13.5% edge▼

PRA39.5UNDER47%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)4/2020%+26.7% edge▼

AST9.5UNDER17%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+22.4% edge▼

3PA3UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

FTM3.5UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 6x10/2050%▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

STL1.5UNDER45%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 7x7/2035%▼

FTA5OVER3%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x8/2040%▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

LeBron James

Assists UNDER 6.5MEDIUM

His season assist average is 6.9, but the last 5 have dropped to 5.8 and the last 10 sit at 6.3. With the market asking for 7+ assists to cash the over at several books, the under is the cleaner side given the recent trend and the modest pace environment.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Paolo Banchero	2	6	2	0%	0%
Desmond Bane	2	4	5	40%	50%
Tristan da Silva	2	4	10	100%	125%
Jalen Suggs	1	2	3	50%	75%
Noah Penda	1	2	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 23.562%MEDIUM

He is at 21.3 PPG for the season and 20.4 PPG over the last 5, both below 23.5. Orlando's pace is 100 and the season sample points to more of a low-20s outcome than a mid-20s one.

reboundsOVER 6.558%MEDIUM

His last 5 rebounds are 7.6 and his vs-opponent rebound average is 7.375 across 8 games, both above the line. The season mean is 5.9, so this is not a huge edge, but the recent form supports it.

assistsUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 6.9, but the last 5 are down to 5.8 and recent game logs include multiple low-assist outings. The 6.5 line is close to his mean, but the recent dip makes the under the safer side.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.38 threes per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, both below 1.5. With a 0.319 three-point percentage and Orlando's three suppression profile, the under is preferred.

stealsOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, well above 0.5. This is one of the cleaner volume-based overs on the board.

blocksUNDER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks on the season, but only 0.4 over the last 5. This sits right near the threshold, so the under is slightly safer.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.73 and the last 10 is 1.9, both above 1.5. With combined defensive event volume staying stable, the over is playable.

turnoversOVER 357%MEDIUM

He is sitting at 3.0 turnovers in the last 5 and 2.9 in the last 10, with a 3.2 last-20 mark. That level of ball-handling volume makes the over more likely than not.

praUNDER 33.554%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his PRA projects around 34.1, but combo props carry extra variance and his recent scoring is below season form. The under is only a slight lean, not a strong play.

paUNDER 30.560%MEDIUM

He averages 28.2 points + assists on the season and 26.2 over the last 5, both below 30.5. The recent assist decline makes this an attractive under.

prUNDER 30.558%MEDIUM

His season points + rebounds sit at 27.2, and even with a rebound uptick recently he still profiles below 30.5. The line is well above his baseline production.

raOVER 12.557%MEDIUM

He is averaging 12.8 rebounds + assists on the season and 13.9 over the last 5. This is a thin edge, but the recent form clears the line.

double_doubleOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He has clear double-double potential through points and rebounds, and his last game was a 19-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist outing. The probability is still moderate because his scoring and assists have been inconsistent lately.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS