AI Model:

Marcus Smart▼

LAL · SF

PPG

9.6

RPG

2.8

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

11.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.0

9.6

11.6

RPG-0.8

2.8

2.0

APG-0.4

2.8

2.4

SPG+0.8

1.4

2.2

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 9 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 11 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 5 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 13 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5STAKE

64%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

61%

AST

OVER 2.5BETONLINEAG

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5BETRIVERS

58%

STL

OVER 1.5

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

69%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

62%

UNDER 2

63%

P+A

OVER 13.5STAKE

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

9.3

RPG

2.5

2.1

APG

3.3

2.3

vs ORL (H2H)12 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

3.4

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	3	17	94%	+26.8%	medium
James Harden	3	14	60%	+10.1%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	13	94%	+37.9%	medium
Ja Morant	2	12	33%

Smart’s defensive production stands out, but scoring remains capped

Marcus Smart is averaging 9.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG on the season, with his recent scoring ticking up to 11.6 PPG over the last 5 and 10.2 over the last 10. His steals remain the clearest strength: 1.4 SPG on the season, 2.2 over the last 5, and 2.3 over the last 10, while his stock production has stayed strong at 1.78 season average and 2.7 over the last 10. The scoring outlook is less convincing because his last-20 scoring average is 9.4 and the opponent profile points to suppressed perimeter output, so the safer angles are around defense and modest assist volume. With two opponent absences listed, his all-around role can hold, but the data still favors a conservative projection on points.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.6(↑ from 9.6)

APG

2.4(↓ from 2.8)

SPG

2.2(↑ from 1.4)

Stocks

2.4(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so there is no defender-based edge to add. The opponent profile shows a 114.28 defensive rating and a -0.999 three suppression figure, which supports caution on scoring and some skepticism on the scoring side of his props.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Marcus Smart▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Marcus Smart▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✗
Marcus Smart▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Marcus Smart▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Marcus Smart▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Marcus Smart▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Marcus Smart▼	P+A	13.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB2.5UNDER20%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R11.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

PRA14.5UNDER18%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

3PA5UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

AST3UNDER5%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

FTM0.5UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA1.5OVER5%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS9OVER0%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

STL1UNDER48%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Marcus Smart

Steals OVER 1.5MEDIUM

His steals production is the cleanest trend on the board at 1.4 SPG season, 2.2 last 5, and 2.3 last 10. Even with normal variance, that level of activity gives the best combination of form and role without needing a scoring spike.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Desmond Bane	2	7	9	43%	50%
Jevon Carter	2	3	0	0%	0%
Paolo Banchero	2	2	2	50%	50%
Tristan da Silva	2	2	4	100%	100%
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 10.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.6 and last-20 is 9.4, both below this line. The recent 11.6 PPG run is stronger, but that is only a 5-game sample and the data supports regression toward his season level.

reboundsUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.8 RPG on the season but only 2.3 over the last 10 and 2.0 over the last 5. That puts him right around the line, but the recent trend is slightly down.

assistsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.81 APG and the recent mean is 3.1 APG, with 3.03 APG at home. The line is modest enough that his average role clears it more often than not.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.64 made threes per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 5. This is one of his better volume-based props, though the recent std of 1.4 shows some volatility.

stealsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He is at 1.4 SPG for the season and 2.2 over the last 5, with 2.3 over the last 10. Given his defensive activity, this is the strongest category to lean over despite variance.

blocksUNDER 0.569%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.4 BPG on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. The under is supported by his low baseline block rate.

stocksOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.78 and his last-10 is 2.7, well above the line. The combined defensive stats are the most reliable way to attack his profile.

turnoversUNDER 263%MEDIUM

He has stayed relatively clean with 0.8 TOPG over the last 20 and 1.1 over the last 10. That level of ball security makes an under on turnovers the lean if the line is near 2.

paOVER 13.556%MEDIUM

He averages 9.6 points and 2.8 assists on the season, and his recent assist rate has been a touch higher. This is a lower-confidence combo because combo props carry more variance.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS