AI Model:

Paolo Banchero▲

ORL · PF

PPG

22.3

RPG

8.6

APG

5.0

L5 PPG

23.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.7

22.3

23.0

RPG-0.4

8.6

8.2

APG+0.4

5.0

5.4

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

WAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs WAS: 37 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 25 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 33 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 25 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 27 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 32 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 20 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

OVER 8.5FANDUEL

55%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANATICS

68%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

53%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

52%

OVER 3

60%

P+R

UNDER 27.5STAKE

58%

P+A

UNDER 25.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.2

25.7

RPG

8.1

8.6

APG

5.2

5.7

vs LAL (H2H)6 games

PPG

20.8

RPG

6.7

APG

4.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Johnson	3	21	50%	+0.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	18	50%	-9.1%	medium
Pascal Siakam	3	18	59%	+4.1%	medium
Scottie Barnes	3	18	50%

Banchero's scoring ceiling stays high, but the assist under has the clearest edge

Paolo Banchero is trending up, with 25.1 PPG over his last 10 compared to 22.3 for the season, while still logging 34.5 MPG. His recent production is strong, but his season baseline and head-to-head numbers versus this opponent are more moderate at 20.83 PPG, 6.67 RPG, and 4.67 APG across 6 games. The absences of Anthony Black and Franz Wagner support his usage, but the data also shows elevated turnover volume and a fairly volatile scoring profile, which keeps the over cases from getting too aggressive. Against a defense with a 115.14 rating and negative three-point suppression, his best value leans toward the safer under on assists and a more cautious stance on combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.0(↑ from 22.3)

RPG

8.2(→ from 8.6)

APG

5.4(↑ from 5.0)

Stocks

1.0(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a 115.14 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative three-point suppression at -0.381. In the provided defender list, there is no specific defender matchup data that clearly changes the projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Paolo Banchero▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	16	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	0	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	10%	21	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	P+A	25.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A29UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

R+A13UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Paolo Banchero

Assists UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the dataset: his season mean is 5.03 APG, his vs-opponent average is 4.67 APG, and the value props show a best-side UNDER with a 9.7% edge at Fanatics. Even with teammate absences boosting usage, the assist line still sits slightly above his core distribution.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Luka Dončić	2	13	13	29%	32%
LeBron James	2	5	6	50%	50%
Deandre Ayton	2	3	8	100%	100%
Rui Hachimura	2	2	0	0%	0%
Austin Reaves	2	2	3	25%	38%

pointsUNDER 24.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 22.3 PPG and his vs-opponent average is 20.83 PPG across 6 games, both below 24.5. The last-10 surge to 25.1 is real, but it is not enough to fully override the season baseline and the historical matchup output.

reboundsOVER 8.555%MEDIUM

He averages 8.6 RPG on the season and 8.6 RPG over the last 10, with 8.97 RPG away and 8.6 RPG in b2b contexts. This is close to a coin flip, but the recent consistency keeps the over viable at a modest confidence.

assistsUNDER 5.568%MEDIUM

Season assists are 5.03 APG and the last 5 is 5.4 APG, both below or near 5.5, while his vs-opponent mark is 4.67 APG across 6 games. The value data also points to the under with a 9.7% edge at this line.

threesOVER 1.553%MEDIUM

He averages 1.19 made threes on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, which is enough to clear 1.5 at times but not with high certainty. The recent trend supports the over, but variance remains noticeable with a 1.15 season standard deviation.

blocksOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game for the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so a single block is plausible. This is a low-volume category, so confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 360%MEDIUM

He has 3.2 turnovers per game in both the last 5 and last 10, so a 3.0 line is playable to the over. The recent logs also show multiple 3+ turnover games, reinforcing that floor.

prUNDER 27.558%MEDIUM

His season-based projection is close to this range, but the matchup history and season scoring baseline do not strongly support a clear over. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 25.564%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 27.33, but the opponent history drops to 25.5 combined points and assists only if he stays at his normal level; his assists profile is the weaker piece here. The available value data also favors under on assists, which supports the under angle on this combo.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS