Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 2 | 18 | 75% | +21.6% | low |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 4 | 17 | 41% | -11.8% | medium |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 5 | 11 | 67% | +13.2% | medium |
| Duncan Robinson | 3 | 10 | 25% |
Tristan da Silva’s season line is modest at 9.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 1.5 APG, but his recent role has expanded with 29.8 MPG over the last 10 and 30.8 MPG over the last 5. The biggest swing factor is teammate availability: Anthony Black (15.5 PPG, 3.8 APG, 30.8 MPG) and Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG, 3.6 APG, 5.8 RPG, 31.8 MPG) are both out, which supports his usage and floor. Even so, his recent scoring has cooled from 12.7 PPG over the last 10 to 12.2 over the last 5, and the market is already pricing his points around 11.5. Against a defense with a 115.14 rating and negative scoring suppression, the safer angle leans toward unders on inflated lines rather than chasing an over.
The Lakers have a 115.14 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a -0.045 scoring suppression mark, which is not a pristine spot for overs. Key defender data is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data that clearly tilts the projection.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tristan da Silva▼ | Points | 11.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 12 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | 2 | ✓ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 83%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✓ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
Tristan da Silva▼ | PRA | 24.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 14 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest edge in the dataset: his season average is 1.48 APG, and the value prop model shows an under probability of 0.774 with a 14.8% edge. Even with teammate absences boosting opportunity, his assist production has not consistently reached a level that supports 3+ assists against a 2.5 line.
| medium |
| Simone Fontecchio | 4 | 10 | 58% | +4.9% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 2 | 5 | 6 | 60% | 60% |
| Austin Reaves | 2 | 4 | 4 | 33% | 33% |
| Rui Hachimura | 2 | 3 | 7 | 75% | 88% |
| Marcus Smart | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Deandre Ayton | 2 | 3 | 5 | 100% | 100% |
He’s been at 12.2 PPG over the last 5 and 12.7 over the last 10, but the season mean is only 9.6 and the recent spike is already reflected in a 11.5 line. The value data also shows the under at 11.5 has a small positive edge on multiple books, so the over is not attractive here.
Season average is 3.8 RPG and even with recent improvement to 5.2 over the last 10, the model still shows the under as the best side at 4.5 with a 7.7% edge. His away rebound average is 5.1, but the larger sample and variance support caution on the over.
He averages just 1.48 APG for the season, and even the recent 2.3 APG still trails a 2.5 line. The value prop data shows a strong under with a 14.8% edge, making this the clearest lean.
He averages 1.6 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, so the line sits close to his mean. The under is only a thin edge, so this is playable but not a strong conviction.
He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, with 1.1 in home games. The recent defensive activity supports a modest over if the book posts a standard 0.5 line.
His season average is 0.4 BPG, so a 0.5 line is slightly above his typical production. Recent spike to 0.6-0.8 is helpful, but the baseline still favors the under.
He combines 0.9 SPG and 0.4 BPG for a 1.3 season stock average, but the last 10 jumps to 2.0 and the last 5 to 2.4. This is a volatile combo, so confidence stays moderate.
He has 1.0 TO per game over the last 10 and 0.8 over the last 20, but recent higher minutes and usage have pushed him into more on-ball actions. If the book offers a low line, the over is viable but not strong.
A rough season blend of 9.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists puts him near 14.9 PRA, while recent usage is elevated but still not enough to justify a high combo line. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the safer stance if the line is inflated.