AI Model:

Wendell Carter Jr.—

ORL · C

PPG

11.9

RPG

7.6

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.7

11.9

14.6

RPG0.0

7.6

APG+0.5

2.1

2.6

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

HOU

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs HOU: 16 pts

DET

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DET: 4 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 15 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 11 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 19 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 15 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 17 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 11 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5STAKE

63%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

57%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

60%

3PM

UNDER 1

55%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

UNDER 2

58%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.1

10.6

RPG

8.2

7.5

APG

2.1

1.9

vs LAL (H2H)10 games

PPG

14.9

RPG

7.7

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bam Adebayo	5	42	46%	-7.1%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	24	83%	+23.2%	medium
Jalen Duren	4	22	42%	-10.1%	medium
Evan Mobley	4	19	47%

Increased usage, but rib issue and inflated role make the under angles appealing

Wendell Carter Jr. is coming in with a strong recent scoring stretch, posting 14.6 PPG over his last 5 compared to 11.9 for the season, while his minutes have held near 30 MPG. The context is favorable for touches with Anthony Black and Franz Wagner both out, but Carter is listed questionable with a left rib injury, which adds downside risk to his workload and efficiency. Against the Lakers, his 10-game history is solid at 14.9 PPG and 7.7 RPG, but the current season baseline is still closer to 12 points and 8 rebounds than the hot last-5. With the market already pricing some of his lines above those season norms, the cleaner edges lean toward conservative unders on the higher totals.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(↑ from 11.9)

RPG

7.6(→ from 7.6)

APG

2.6(↑ from 2.1)

Stocks

1.4(→ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

There is specific defender matchup data available: Deandre Ayton, LeBron James, and Marcus Smart are listed with limited minutes in the sample. Orlando also faces a Lakers defense with a 115.14 defensive rating, and the opponent context shows a -0.045 scoring suppression and -0.381 three suppression, which is not especially favorable for shooting volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	13	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	9	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	3PM	1	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Wendell Carter Jr.

Points UNDER 12.5MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 11.9, and his last 20 games are even lower at 10.3 PPG, making 12.5 a reachable but slightly inflated number. The questionable left rib injury adds another layer of downside, so the under is the cleanest lean among the listed markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Deandre Ayton	2	11	8	57%	57%
Luka Dončić	2	4	10	27%	30%
Austin Reaves	2	3	12	40%	45%
LeBron James	2	2	2	25%	25%
Jaxson Hayes	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.9 PPG and the recent 14.6 over the last 5 is above that baseline, so regression risk is real. The questionable left rib injury also adds uncertainty, and his last 20 games sit at just 10.3 PPG.

reboundsOVER 7.557%MEDIUM

He averages 7.6 RPG on the season and 7.8 over the last 20, with a 7.87 home mean. The line is right on his baseline, so this is playable but not a high-confidence edge.

assistsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.1 APG and the last 5 are 2.6 APG, while home mean is 2.27. Even with some volatility, 1.5 is below his typical distribution.

threesUNDER 155%MEDIUM

He averages 1.02 threes per game on the season but only 0.8 over the last 10 and 0.5 over the last 20. The recent trend is cooler than the season number, which makes the under slightly preferable.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 10. The line is low, but variance is high, so confidence stays modest.

blocksUNDER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season but only 0.5 over the last 20. With the rib issue and moderate variance, the under is slightly safer.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.45 and recent form is 1.7 over the last 10, which is close to the threshold. This is a volatile combo category, so the confidence remains limited.

turnoversUNDER 258%MEDIUM

He has been at 1.1 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.2 over the last 5, which is below a typical 2.0 line. The recent game logs do not show a turnover spike.

prUNDER 14.562%MEDIUM

His season scoring plus rebounds profile supports a modest total, but combo props carry extra variance and his last 20 scoring is only 10.3 PPG. The current line is aggressive relative to his baseline.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS