AI Model:

Alperen Sengun▲

HOU · C

PPG

20.3

RPG

8.9

APG

6.2

L5 PPG

16.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.9

20.3

16.4

RPG-2.3

8.9

6.6

APG-0.2

6.2

6.0

SPG-0.6

1.2

0.6

BPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

ORL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ORL: 16 pts

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 13 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 32 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 17 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 28 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 14 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 10 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 27 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 15 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

79%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

69%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 3.5

63%

PRA

UNDER 35.5

68%

P+A

UNDER 25.5STAKE

64%

P+R

UNDER 29.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.3

19.1

RPG

8.5

7.7

APG

6.5

5.0

vs MIA (H2H)8 games

PPG

13.0

RPG

8.3

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	4	24	58%	-0.0%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	4	20	50%	-5.0%	medium
Rudy Gobert	2	14	57%	+4.7%	low
Luke Kornet	3	13	100%

Sengun’s usage is steady, but Miami has kept him in check

Alperen Sengun is still carrying a heavy workload at 33.4 MPG with season averages of 20.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 6.2 APG, but his recent scoring has softened to 16.4 PPG over the last 5 and 18.8 over the last 10. His prior meeting with Miami was modest at 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists in 35 minutes, which matters because the Heat profile has also suppressed scoring overall. The current projection should lean closer to his recent and head-to-head production than his season baseline, especially with his last-5 turnover rate up to 3.6 and assists down to 6.0. Miami’s listed absences do help the matchup a bit offensively, but the data still points to a disciplined defensive environment for his scoring and passing lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.4(↓ from 20.3)

RPG

6.6(↓ from 8.9)

APG

6.0(→ from 6.2)

Key Matchup

Miami’s opponent defense data shows a 116.99 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.377 scoring suppression, which points to a slower, more controlled environment. The only listed defender data is Bam Adebayo, and Sengun’s previous game vs Miami finished at 13 points on 35 minutes, so there is no specific defender matchup data beyond that.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Alperen Sengun▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	1/2	70%	19	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	3	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	PRA	35.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	34	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	P+A	25.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	22	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	P+R	29.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	31	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA33.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+R29.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PTS18.5UNDER12%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

REB8.5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+7.2% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK0.5UNDER23%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST5.5UNDER33%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%+5.7% edge▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Alperen Sengun

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board: the data gives a 14.4% edge to the under at DraftKings 19.5, and Sengun’s recent scoring has slipped to 16.4 PPG over the last 5. He also posted just 13 points in his last game against Miami, making this the strongest combination of price, form, and opponent history.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bam Adebayo	2	5	21	54%	62%
Pelle Larsson	1	3	13	100%	120%
Davion Mitchell	2	2	12	80%	120%
Simone Fontecchio	1	1	5	100%	125%
Myron Gardner	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.584%HIGH

His value data shows a 14.4% edge to the UNDER at 19.5, with our projected under probability at 0.691. He’s at 16.4 PPG over the last 5 and scored 13 points in his last game vs Miami, so the shorter-term form supports the under.

reboundsUNDER 8.561%MEDIUM

Season mean is 8.9, but his recent mean is 7.5 and his last 5 is 6.6, which pulls him below this number. The standard deviation is 3.62, so this is not ultra-safe, but the recent trend still leans under.

assistsUNDER 5.572%HIGH

The value props show a 8.4% edge to the UNDER at 5.5 on DraftKings, and his recent assist mean is 5.0 versus 6.1 for the season. Against Miami, he has averaged only 2.75 APG in 8 games, which is a strong negative split.

threesUNDER 0.579%HIGH

He averages just 0.5 made threes per game this season, and his recent mean is 0.3 with only 0.2 FG3M over the last 5 and last 10. That low volume makes the under the cleaner side.

stealsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.2 steals, but the last 5 dropped to 0.6 and the last 10 is 0.7. With a 1.5 line, the lower recent defensive-event rate favors the under.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so there is still enough baseline block activity to consider the over. The line is only 0.5, but the recent dip keeps confidence moderate.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.24 and his last 20 is 2.0, so the combined defensive event floor is solid. Recent form is lower at 1.6, which keeps this from being a stronger play.

turnoversOVER 3.563%MEDIUM

He’s at 3.5 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 3.6 over the last 5, with season turnover pressure also elevated in the logs. That makes the over viable even if the line is only projected.

praUNDER 35.568%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 35.4, but recent form is below that with 16.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in the last 5. Combo props are higher variance, so the slight recent dip pushes the under.

paUNDER 25.564%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is strong, but the last 5 scoring drop to 16.4 makes this number tighter. Miami also held him to 13 points and 3 assists in the last meeting, which supports the under.

prUNDER 29.566%MEDIUM

He averages 29.2 points plus rebounds on the season, but recent form is weaker with 23.0 combined in the last 5. Since the line is slightly above his season base and the matchup history was quiet, the under is preferred.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS