AI Model:

Amen Thompson—

HOU · PG

PPG

17.9

RPG

7.8

APG

5.2

L5 PPG

19.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

17.9

19.6

RPG+1.6

7.8

9.4

APG-0.2

5.2

5.0

SPG-0.5

1.5

1.0

BPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 22 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 18 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 26 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 23 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 19 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 26 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 14 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

OVER 2.5

63%

PRA

UNDER 33.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.0

15.9

RPG

7.5

8.5

APG

4.9

4.6

vs MIA (H2H)4 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

6.8

APG

3.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	4	21	50%	-12.6%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	19	60%	-2.6%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	15	28%	-30.4%	medium
Jalen Brunson	2	15	11%

Amen Thompson’s all-around role is solid, but scoring looks capped in this matchup

Amen Thompson is holding a strong minute load at 37+ MPG, and his recent form is steady-to-better with 19.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, and 5.0 APG over the last 5 games. The season baseline is 17.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.2 APG, so the biggest recent lift has come in points and rebounds, while his assists have stayed close to normal. Miami’s opponent profile points toward a slower, more suppressive scoring environment, and his head-to-head sample vs this team is only 12 PPG across 4 games in 29.25 MPG. The absence data helps some on the usage side, but the current point line and his lower historical output vs this opponent keep the scoring side from being an obvious over.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.6(↑ from 17.9)

RPG

9.4(↑ from 7.8)

APG

5.0(→ from 5.2)

Stocks

1.2(↓ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

The provided key defender list only includes limited data, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the names listed. Miami’s opponent defense metrics show a 116.99 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and scoring suppression of 0.377, which leans against a big scoring ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Amen Thompson▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	1/2	20%	24	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	18	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Amen Thompson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	30%	3	✓
Amen Thompson▼	PRA	33.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	46	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB7.5OVER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.158▼

PTS16.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x16/2080%▼

STL1.5UNDER28%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

PRA29.5UNDER3%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%▼

P+R28UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

AST4.5UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

R+A13.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A25UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Amen Thompson

Points UNDER 17.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the slate from the supplied data, with a 18.6% edge and an estimated 70.7% probability for the UNDER at DraftKings. His season average is 17.9 PPG, but his head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 12 PPG, and the matchup environment is not projecting a fast, high-scoring game.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tyler Herro	1	6	6	50%	50%
Bam Adebayo	2	2	4	50%	50%
Davion Mitchell	2	2	2	50%	50%
Pelle Larsson	1	2	1	0%	0%
Andrew Wiggins	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 17.584%HIGH

The value data shows the UNDER as the best side with a 18.6% edge and projected probability of 70.7%. Even with 19.6 PPG over the last 5, his season mean is 17.9 and his vs-opponent scoring is just 12 PPG in 4 games.

reboundsOVER 7.561%MEDIUM

He is at 7.8 RPG for the season and 9.4 RPG over the last 5, with 38.1 recent minutes supporting the rebound volume. His away split is 8.5 RPG, which also clears this line in the small-sample road profile.

assistsUNDER 5.556%MEDIUM

His season mark is 5.2 APG and his recent mean is 5.3, both just below the line. The prop-market value data is weak here and the standard deviation of 2.31 makes this a modest-confidence under.

stealsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 steals per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 20, with strong defensive activity overall. This is a volatile category, but the baseline volume is right on the edge of an over.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 blocks and his last 20 is also 0.6, so the profile supports clearing a 0.5 line. Recent games are a bit lower at 0.2, so confidence stays limited.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He combines 1.5 steals and 0.6 blocks for a 2.06 season stocks average, which is above this threshold. Recent stocks have cooled to 1.2 over the last 5, so this is playable but not strong.

turnoversOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He is at 2.6 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 5, which supports an over at a modest line. His high usage and 37+ MPG create steady turnover exposure.

praUNDER 33.557%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, 17.9 points + 7.8 rebounds + 5.2 assists equals 30.9 PRA, which is below this projected number. Combo props are inherently higher variance, so this is only a mild lean.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS