AI Model:

Davion Mitchell▼

MIA · PG

PPG

9.1

RPG

2.7

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.7

9.1

11.8

RPG+1.3

2.7

4.0

APG-1.6

6.6

5.0

SPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 6.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

6.5

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 5 ast

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 4 ast

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 4 ast

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 7 ast

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 4 ast

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 5 ast

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 5 ast

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 4 ast

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 5 ast

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 6 ast

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

PTS

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

OVER 1.5BETONLINEAG

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

UNDER 2

66%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

57%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.2

7.6

RPG

2.9

APG

5.3

5.6

vs HOU (H2H)13 games

PPG

8.8

RPG

2.2

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	4	21	75%	+11.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	20	55%	+1.7%	medium
Cade Cunningham	3	17	33%	-20.5%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	16	47%

Mitchell’s assist floor is solid, but scoring is priced close to fair

Davion Mitchell is trending slightly down overall, but his role remains stable as a starting PG at 28.3 MPG on the season. The biggest boost comes from teammate absences: Andrew Wiggins (15.9 PPG), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.1 PPG), and Terry Rozier are all out, which should keep Mitchell involved in the offense. His season averages are 9.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, and 6.6 APG, while the recent form is 11.8 PPG and 5.0 APG over the last 5, though that scoring spike is likely to regress closer to his season level. Houston’s defense is respectable enough to suppress scoring slightly, so the cleaner angle is to lean on his playmaking and ancillary stats rather than chasing a points over.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↑ from 9.1)

APG

5.0(↓ from 6.6)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 2.7)

Stocks

0.8(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Houston’s opponent defense data shows a 109.7 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -1.293, which points to a slightly tougher scoring environment. The provided key defenders list includes Tari Eason and Amen Thompson, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond their listed minutes and points allowed, so no individual matchup can be assumed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Davion Mitchell▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	9	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	Points	8.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	15	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	90%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	90%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	24	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	16	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%+10.0% edge▼

REB2.5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST5.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/2035%+16.0% edge▼

PRA17.5UNDER6%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%▼

P+R13OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

3PA4UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x6/2030%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Davion Mitchell

Rebounds OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the strongest blend of form, role, and value. He averages 2.7 RPG on the season, 3.2 over the last 10, and the value data shows an 8.0% edge with positive EV across multiple books, making the over the most appealing prop in the set.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Reed Sheppard	1	6	2	25%	25%
Amen Thompson	2	2	5	100%	100%
Aaron Holiday	1	2	3	100%	150%
Jabari Smith Jr.	1	2	0	0%	0%
Alperen Sengun	2	2	2	100%	100%

assistsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.6 APG and recent mean is 4.9, so 6.5 is a tight number despite the added usage from teammate absences. The under is also supported by his last-10 average of 4.9 APG and a downward overall trend.

pointsOVER 8.555%MEDIUM

He averages 9.1 PPG on the season and has cleared that level with 11.8 PPG over the last 5. The book line is only 8.5, but the recent spike is above the season baseline, so confidence stays modest.

reboundsOVER 2.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.7 RPG and the last 5 are up to 4.0 RPG, while the value data shows an 8.0% edge on the over. This is the cleanest positive-EV angle in the provided data.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.24 threes per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, with value data showing a 7.9% edge on the over. The recent volume supports a modest over lean, though variance keeps confidence moderate.

stealsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 1.0 SPG on the season but just 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10, which makes 1.5 a tough ask. His stock production has cooled recently, and his season mean is below a high-steal threshold.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.19 and recent mean is only 0.7, so this combination prop is harder to clear than his raw season total suggests. With the recent dip and combo variance, the under is the safer side.

turnoversUNDER 266%MEDIUM

He is at 0.8 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.1 over the last 20, well below a 2.0 line. Even with more creation duties, the recent ball-security profile points under.

paUNDER 14.557%MEDIUM

His season 9.1 PPG plus 6.6 APG suggests 15.7 PA on average, but the last-10 assist drop and the game-to-game volatility make 14.5 less appealing than it first appears. Combo props are lower-hit markets, so the under is the conservative lean.

prUNDER 10.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 11.8, but the market line is elevated and his points profile is still close to his season baseline. Given the over-bias warning and his recent scoring regression risk, under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 6.5 AST