AI Model:

Jabari Smith Jr.▲

HOU · PF

PPG

15.7

RPG

6.9

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

18.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.3

15.7

18.0

RPG-0.1

6.9

6.8

APG+0.4

1.8

2.2

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.5

0.9

0.4

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

SAC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAC: 12 pts

ORL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ORL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 3 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 17 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 16 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 23 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

60%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

59%

OVER 1.5

55%

P+R

OVER 21.5STAKE

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.4

16.9

RPG

7.2

5.4

APG

2.0

1.3

vs MIA (H2H)6 games

PPG

13.3

RPG

7.0

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cameron Johnson	4	17	42%	-12.1%	medium
Julius Randle	2	15	42%	-6.9%	low
Trey Murphy III	3	11	67%	+10.2%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	11	57%

Jabari’s volume is solid, but Miami keeps the scoring ceiling in check

Jabari Smith Jr. is in good form, with 18.0 PPG over his last 5 compared to 15.7 PPG for the season, while his minutes stay steady at 35.8. The matchup is tougher for efficiency: his 6-game history vs Miami is only 13.3 PPG in 29.7 MPG, and the Heat are allowing a 0.377 scoring suppression with a pace of 100. Houston is also on a back-to-back, and his b2b point average drops to 14.67, which makes the scoring market more fragile than his recent run suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.0(↑ from 15.7)

RPG

6.8(→ from 6.9)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.8)

Stocks

1.2(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Miami is the more relevant defensive environment here: the opponent profile shows a 116.99 defensive rating, pace of 100, and 0.377 scoring suppression. There is specific defender data on Bam Adebayo, with 9.8 minutes, 16 points allowed, and a 0.5 FG% allowed, so this is not a soft individual matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Points	14.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	13	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	P+R	21.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5OVER40%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+17.4% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS13.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

REB6.5OVER7%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.142▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+6.8% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Jabari Smith Jr.

Points OVER 14.5MEDIUM

This line is below his 15.56 season mean and 16.6 last-10 average, while his home scoring sits at 16.23. The matchup and back-to-back environment reduce the ceiling, but the number is still low enough that his baseline volume gives the over the best balance of hit rate and price.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bam Adebayo	1	8	12	63%	63%
Pelle Larsson	1	2	4	67%	67%
Simone Fontecchio	1	2	0	0%	0%
Tyler Herro	1	1	3	33%	33%
Myron Gardner	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 14.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 15.56 and he’s at 16.6 over the last 10, which supports a modest over despite Miami's suppression. The home split (16.23 PPG) also clears the 14.5 line, but the back-to-back and 13.3 PPG vs this opponent cap confidence.

reboundsUNDER 7.560%MEDIUM

He averages 6.84 rebounds on the season and 5.7 over the last 10, both below 7.5. The recent production trend is softer than the season baseline, and the 7-game away sample is only 5.4 RPG, reinforcing the under lean.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.79 assists and last 10 is 2.2, still short of 2.5. With a 1.24 season standard deviation and only 2.0 assists in home games, this remains more likely to land below the number.

threesUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.22 threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, so 2.5 is not a strong over target. Miami’s three suppression context also points to a slightly tougher shooting environment.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. The upside is limited by variance, but the volume threshold supports the over.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 blocks on the season and 1.1 at home, which gives this line a workable over path. Recent games are quieter at 0.4 over the last 10, so confidence stays modest.

stocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.75, but the last 10 is only 1.1 and the last 5 is 1.2, showing a recent dip. Because stocks are volatile and the recent trend is below the season norm, the under is slightly safer.

turnoversOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He has 1.1 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 1.5 at home, so this sits near the threshold. The recent game log includes several 1-2 turnover outings, but the line is not high enough to ignore.

prOVER 21.552%MEDIUM

His season scoring plus rebounding profile gives him a path here, but combo props are high-variance. The recent scoring bump helps, though Miami and the back-to-back keep this only a narrow lean.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS