AI Model:

Kevin Durant—

HOU · SF

PPG

25.5

RPG

5.4

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

20.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.7

25.5

20.8

RPG-0.6

5.4

4.8

APG-0.1

4.5

4.4

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

UNDER 26.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

26.5

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 30 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 23 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 29 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 32 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 25 pts

Over 26.5

Under 26.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

53%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 3.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 35.5

62%

P+A

UNDER 30.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.5

27.6

RPG

5.7

5.5

APG

4.5

4.0

vs MIA (H2H)10 games

PPG

23.9

RPG

6.2

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	3	18	75%	+5.4%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	17	50%	-1.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	2	16	59%	+2.8%	low
Saddiq Bey	4	16	54%

Durant’s scoring outlook is capped, but rebounds offer the cleaner angle

Kevin Durant’s season line of 25.5 PPG is running ahead of his recent form, with just 20.8 points over his last 5 and 22.9 over his last 10. The matchup is mixed: Miami’s defense has a 116.99 rating and 100 pace, but Durant has still averaged 23.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 10 games against this opponent. He also benefits from opponent absences, but his recent scoring has been below the market number and the current props show stronger support for the under than the over.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.8(↓ from 25.5)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.4)

APG

4.4(→ from 4.5)

Key Matchup

Miami’s defense carries a 116.99 defensive rating and 100 pace, which suggests a more controlled scoring environment. The provided key defenders list does not give specific defender matchup data, so there is no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kevin Durant▼	Points	26.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	70%	27	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Kevin Durant▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Kevin Durant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✗
Kevin Durant▼	PRA	35.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	33	✓
Kevin Durant▼	P+A	30.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	30	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

AST5.5OVER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 7x9/2045%▼

REB5.5UNDER4%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

PRA36.5UNDER26%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

P+R31UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

PTS25.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

3PM2.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

3PA5.5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

BLK1UNDER50%gbt_blocksAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

FTM4UNDER24%gbtAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTA5UNDER4%gbtAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Durant

Points UNDER 26.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: Durant’s season average is 25.55, his last 5 is down at 20.8, and his recent_mean is 23.6. The value data is strongly aligned with the under at 26.5, including a 0.251 edge and ev_under of 48.08.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Andrew Wiggins	1	6	2	20%	20%
Simone Fontecchio	1	6	8	75%	100%
Bam Adebayo	2	2	2	50%	50%
Myron Gardner	1	2	0	0%	0%
Pelle Larsson	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 26.584%HIGH

His season mean is 25.55, but his last 5 is only 20.8 and his recent_mean is 23.6. The value data also shows strong under support at 26.5 with a 0.251 edge and ev_under of 48.08.

reboundsOVER 5.561%MEDIUM

Durant’s season mean is 5.48 and his recent_mean is 6.0, with a 5.52 home_mean and 5.45 away_mean. Value props show a positive edge on the over at 5.5 with ev_over of 11.11.

assistsUNDER 4.556%MEDIUM

His season mean of 4.45 sits just below the line, and his recent_mean is 3.9. The edge here is small, but the under is the side supported by the value data.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.23 threes on the season, but recent_mean is 1.8 and the last 5 form has cooled. The book data and value data both lean under at 2.5.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so he clears 0.5 frequently. This is a low-variance volume-based over.

blocksOVER 0.553%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 0.9 and recent form is 0.6 over the last 5. At a 0.5 line, the over is reasonable despite some recent cooling.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.75 and his recent_mean is 1.9. That keeps him above the 1.5 threshold even with some variance.

turnoversOVER 3.557%MEDIUM

Recent turnover volume is elevated at 3.0 over the last 5 and 3.5 over the last 10. His season line is 3.5 as well, making the over the more playable side.

praUNDER 35.562%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his baseline PRA projects near 35.4, while recent scoring has dipped. Because combo props carry more variance, the under is the safer lean.

paUNDER 30.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is around 30.0, and recent production is below that level. The market line at 30.5 is slightly inflated relative to his recent scoring.

timelineUNDER 26.5 PTS