Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toumani Camara | 3 | 18 | 75% | +5.4% | medium |
| DeMar DeRozan | 4 | 17 | 50% | -1.7% | medium |
| Jaden McDaniels | 2 | 16 | 59% | +2.8% | low |
| Saddiq Bey | 4 | 16 | 54% |
Kevin Durant’s season line of 25.5 PPG is running ahead of his recent form, with just 20.8 points over his last 5 and 22.9 over his last 10. The matchup is mixed: Miami’s defense has a 116.99 rating and 100 pace, but Durant has still averaged 23.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 10 games against this opponent. He also benefits from opponent absences, but his recent scoring has been below the market number and the current props show stronger support for the under than the over.
Miami’s defense carries a 116.99 defensive rating and 100 pace, which suggests a more controlled scoring environment. The provided key defenders list does not give specific defender matchup data, so there is no specific defender matchup data.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Durant▼ | Points | 26.5 | UNDER | 84%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 27 | ✗ |
Kevin Durant▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Kevin Durant▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
Kevin Durant▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 5 | ✗ |
Kevin Durant▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Kevin Durant▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 53%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Kevin Durant▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
Kevin Durant▼ | Turnovers | 3.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 3 | ✗ |
Kevin Durant▼ | PRA | 35.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 33 | ✓ |
Kevin Durant▼ | P+A | 30.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 30 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest edge on the board: Durant’s season average is 25.55, his last 5 is down at 20.8, and his recent_mean is 23.6. The value data is strongly aligned with the under at 26.5, including a 0.251 edge and ev_under of 48.08.
| medium |
| Spencer Jones | 4 | 15 | 67% | -1.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins | 1 | 6 | 2 | 20% | 20% |
| Simone Fontecchio | 1 | 6 | 8 | 75% | 100% |
| Bam Adebayo | 2 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Myron Gardner | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Pelle Larsson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 25.55, but his last 5 is only 20.8 and his recent_mean is 23.6. The value data also shows strong under support at 26.5 with a 0.251 edge and ev_under of 48.08.
Durant’s season mean is 5.48 and his recent_mean is 6.0, with a 5.52 home_mean and 5.45 away_mean. Value props show a positive edge on the over at 5.5 with ev_over of 11.11.
His season mean of 4.45 sits just below the line, and his recent_mean is 3.9. The edge here is small, but the under is the side supported by the value data.
He averages 2.23 threes on the season, but recent_mean is 1.8 and the last 5 form has cooled. The book data and value data both lean under at 2.5.
He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so he clears 0.5 frequently. This is a low-variance volume-based over.
His season block rate is 0.9 and recent form is 0.6 over the last 5. At a 0.5 line, the over is reasonable despite some recent cooling.
His season stocks average is 1.75 and his recent_mean is 1.9. That keeps him above the 1.5 threshold even with some variance.
Recent turnover volume is elevated at 3.0 over the last 5 and 3.5 over the last 10. His season line is 3.5 as well, making the over the more playable side.
Using season averages, his baseline PRA projects near 35.4, while recent scoring has dipped. Because combo props carry more variance, the under is the safer lean.
His season points plus assists profile is around 30.0, and recent production is below that level. The market line at 30.5 is slightly inflated relative to his recent scoring.