AI Model:

Norman Powell▲

MIA · SF

PPG

22.4

RPG

3.7

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

17.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.2

22.4

17.2

RPG-0.1

3.7

3.6

APG-0.4

2.6

2.2

SPG-0.6

1.2

0.6

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

CHI

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs CHI: 21 pts

BOS

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs BOS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs WAS: 21 pts

ATL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs ATL: 15 pts

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 25 pts

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 26 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 20 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 20 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

67%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

66%

3PM

OVER 2.5STAKE

52%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 2

55%

P+A

UNDER 23.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.7

17.4

RPG

2.7

3.9

APG

3.1

2.2

vs HOU (H2H)14 games

PPG

15.2

RPG

3.3

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anthony Black	4	16	50%	+2.7%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	14	100%	+27.7%	medium
Landry Shamet	3	13	70%	+2.7%	medium
Jalen Suggs	5	13	56%

Absences help the role, but recent scoring form still points to a tempered night

Norman Powell is in a larger offensive role with Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Terry Rozier all out, and his season scoring average sits at 22.4 PPG across 30.2 MPG. That said, his last 5 games have dipped to 17.2 PPG and 27.0 MPG, and his recent logs show more volatility than his season line suggests. The matchup data is mixed: Houston plays at a 100 pace with a 109.7 defensive rating, but Powell has averaged only 15.214285714285714 PPG in 14 games vs this opponent. With the book's current numbers, the best look is to lean under on scoring and assists, while rebounds has the clearest value angle.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.2(↓ from 22.4)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

APG

2.2(↓ from 2.6)

Stocks

1.0(↓ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent context is generally moderate with a 109.7 defensive rating and 100 pace. Powell's 14-game history vs Houston is notably lower at 15.214285714285714 PPG, which is the strongest matchup note in the data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Norman Powell▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Norman Powell▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	30%
Norman Powell▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Norman Powell▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Norman Powell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%
Norman Powell▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%
Norman Powell▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5OVER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+18.8% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.435▼

PRA23.5OVER0%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)15/2075%+21.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.491; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+R23OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2.5UNDER15%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

AST2.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Norman Powell

Rebounds OVER 3.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value spot in the data because his season average is 3.7 RPG, his away average is 3.9 RPG, and the value_props table shows a positive edge on the 3.5 line. It is less sensitive to scoring volatility than his points prop and better aligned with his baseline than the current recent dip.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 21.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 22.4 PPG, but his last 5 are down to 17.2 and he has averaged 15.214285714285714 PPG in 14 games vs this opponent. The current line is above his recent production and the matchup profile does not add enough upside to justify the over.

reboundsOVER 3.567%MEDIUM

Powell's season average is 3.7 RPG and his away average is 3.9 RPG, with value_props showing a positive edge on 3.5 rebounds. Even with variance, the line is right in his range and the projected role from teammate absences supports steady minutes.

assistsUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 APG for the season but only 2.2 APG over the last 5, and his recent usage has not translated into playmaking growth. The under is also supported by the value data and his opponent history of just 2 APG in 14 games.

threesOVER 2.552%MEDIUM

Powell averages 2.78 made threes per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, so the volume is there even with some regression risk. This is a thinner play than the counting stats, but the line sits close to his baseline.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.41 and his last 5 are only 1.0, which sits just below the meaningful threshold. With a volatile recent range and no clear defensive spike in the data, the under is slightly preferred.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He has averaged 2.1 turnovers over the last 10 and last 20, and his season topg sits at 2.0. That makes the over viable, though the confidence is modest because recent game logs still show some low-turnover outings.

paUNDER 23.560%MEDIUM

Powell's season P+A is 25.0 and last-5 form is 19.4 P+A, but the assist component has stayed muted. With his scoring already projecting closer to the low 20s and his assists under pressure, the under is the safer side on the combo.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS