AI Model:

Pelle Larsson▼

MIA · PF

PPG

10.9

RPG

3.4

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.7

10.9

15.6

RPG-0.4

3.4

3.0

APG-0.3

3.3

3.0

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 3 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 10 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 28 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 15 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 14 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 11 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

OVER 0.5

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

P+A

OVER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.7

10.1

RPG

3.8

4.7

APG

3.9

2.9

vs HOU (H2H)1 games

PPG

20.0

RPG

4.0

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	14	39%	-16.6%	medium
Kon Knueppel	4	10	81%	+12.6%	medium
Mikal Bridges	3	9	80%	+10.1%	medium
Cooper Flagg	2	9	45%

Increased role keeps Larsson’s points and assists live

Pelle Larsson’s recent form is solid, with 15.6 PPG over his last 5 and 13.8 PPG over his last 10, but that comes after a season baseline of 10.9 PPG and 3.3 APG. He’s also playing heavier minutes lately at 31.6 MPG in the last 5 versus 25.7 MPG on the season, and Miami’s injuries should keep his usage elevated. The matchup is not an obvious scoring boost, though Houston’s defense data shows a 109.7 rating and a negative scoring suppression, which slightly supports his floor. With his season averages still well below the recent spike, the best lean is to favor the more stable volume-driven props rather than chase a big points number.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 10.9)

APG

3.0(→ from 3.3)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 3.4)

Stocks

1.2(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Houston’s defense profile shows a 109.7 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression, which is slightly favorable for scoring but not enough to ignore Larsson’s season-level volatility.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Pelle Larsson▼	Points	10.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	19	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.239▼

P+R18UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

REB3.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.059▼

PRA18.5OVER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x13/2065%+12.2% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA2UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTM4UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTA5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Pelle Larsson

Points OVER 10.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest balance of role, recent minutes, and available pricing support. His season average is 10.9 PPG, the last 10 are 13.8, and multiple teammate absences should keep him involved even if his recent surge cools a bit.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Amen Thompson	2	7	9	50%	50%
Alperen Sengun	2	5	2	20%	20%
Reed Sheppard	1	2	3	50%	75%
Kevin Durant	1	2	10	50%	67%
Jabari Smith Jr.	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 10.566%MEDIUM

He’s at 10.9 PPG for the season and 13.8 over the last 10, with 31.6 MPG in the last 5. The recent run is above season norm, but the elevated role and multiple teammate absences support him clearing 10.5 if minutes hold.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.36 rebounds and last 10 is 3.1, both below 3.5. The recent minutes bump has not translated into a rebound surge, making the under the cleaner side.

assistsOVER 3.560%MEDIUM

Larsson is averaging 3.3 APG on the season and 3.3 over the last 10, with a home mean of 3.52. The line is right on his typical production, but the added minutes create a small edge to the over.

threesOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.91 made threes on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so one made three is a reasonable expectation. The edge is modest, so confidence stays moderate.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.93 and last 5 is 1.2, still below 1.5. The volatility is high, but the baseline production doesn’t support an over.

paOVER 14.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 14.2, while recent usage is higher at 13.8 PPG and 3.3 APG over the last 10. This is a thin margin, so it’s a low-to-mid confidence over only because of the minutes and role increase.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS