AI Model:

Tari Eason▲

HOU · SG

PPG

10.5

RPG

6.3

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

7.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.1

10.5

7.4

RPG+1.9

6.3

8.2

APG0.0

1.6

SPG0.0

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 9 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 2 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 8 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 5 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 10 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 10 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

89%

REB

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 1.5

51%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

STL

OVER 1

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5

50%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

UNDER 2

67%

PRA

UNDER 18.5

54%

P+R

UNDER 16.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.2

9.1

RPG

5.8

7.8

APG

1.6

2.4

vs MIA (H2H)4 games

PPG

7.5

RPG

6.8

APG

2.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Luka Dončić	3	14	46%	-2.6%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	9	57%	+16.0%	low
Kawhi Leonard	2	9	50%	+5.1%	low
Cooper Flagg	3	8	17%

Eason’s scoring is shaky, but the defensive/rebound floor stays live

Tari Eason is sitting at 10.5 PPG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 7.4 PPG over the last 5 and 7.0 over the last 10, well below that baseline. The rebound profile is stronger: 6.3 RPG season-long and 8.2 RPG over the last 5, though his recent production can swing with minutes and shot volume. The matchup context is mixed, but the opponent’s absence list removes multiple rotation pieces, which can help Eason’s overall involvement without guaranteeing scoring efficiency. Given the current form and the available book edges, the safer lean is toward his under points and slightly under the rebound number.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.4(↓ from 10.5)

RPG

8.2(↑ from 6.3)

APG

1.6(→ from 1.6)

Stocks

1.6(→ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Miami’s opponent profile shows a 116.99 defensive rating with a 100 pace and 0.377 scoring suppression, which is not an ideal scoring environment. He also has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the matchup read should lean more on the team-level defense and the opponent absences.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tari Eason▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	89%HIGH	2/2	100%	7	✓
Tari Eason▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Tari Eason▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Tari Eason▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	100%	1	✓
Tari Eason▼	Steals	1	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	0	✗
Tari Eason▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	50%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Tari Eason▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Tari Eason▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	90%	3	✗
Tari Eason▼	PRA	18.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	10	✓
Tari Eason▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA16.5UNDER27%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PA3UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

P+R14.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

PTS8.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

REB5.5OVER18%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%+10.9% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.287▼

FTA0.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

P+A9.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

AST1UNDER11%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Tari Eason

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

This is the clearest play on the board. His season average is 10.5 PPG, but his last 5 and last 10 have both fallen to 7.4 and 7.0, and the value data shows a strong UNDER edge with positive EV at 10.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bam Adebayo	2	6	8	44%	44%
Tyler Herro	1	3	7	60%	70%
Simone Fontecchio	1	1	5	100%	125%
Davion Mitchell	2	1	0	0%	0%
Myron Gardner	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.589%HIGH

He averages 10.5 PPG on the season but only 7.4 over the last 5 and 7.0 over the last 10. The value data also flags UNDER at 10.5 with a strong edge and positive EV.

reboundsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season rebound average is 6.3 RPG, and while the last 5 is up at 8.2, that level is likely to regress toward the season mean. The book line sits above his season average, which keeps the under in play.

assistsOVER 1.551%MEDIUM

He averages 1.6 APG on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so this is a modest over if the role holds. The variance is high, so confidence stays limited.

threesUNDER 1.578%HIGH

He averages 1.62 made threes per game on the season, but only 0.3 over the last 5 and 0.2 over the last 10. That recent drop is hard to ignore, especially with the opponent’s three suppression context.

stealsOVER 156%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 SPG on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, so one steal is reachable. The upside is more stable than his scoring, but this remains a lower-confidence look.

blocksOVER 0.550%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.5 BPG on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so this is close to fair. It is usable, but not a strong edge.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.76 and his last 5 is 1.6, both clearing 1.5. This is a steadier category than points, though the standard deviation still keeps confidence moderate.

turnoversUNDER 267%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.2 over the last 10, with recent games including several 0-2 turnover outings. A 2.0 line is a slight lean under.

praUNDER 18.554%MEDIUM

His season baseline of 10.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists totals 18.4 PRA, and the last 5 scoring dip keeps pressure on the over. Combo props carry extra variance, so this stays cautious.

prUNDER 16.555%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds project to roughly 16.8 on season averages, but the scoring decline makes the over less attractive. Rebounds help the floor, yet the combined line is still not comfortably above his norm.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Eason’s scoring is shaky, but the defensive/rebound floor stays live

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 10.5 PTS