AI Model:

Tyler Herro▼

MIA · SG

PPG

21.4

RPG

4.9

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

21.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.4

21.4

21.8

RPG+2.5

4.9

7.4

APG+1.5

3.9

5.4

SPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

OVER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

20.5

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 14 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 25 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 18 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 22 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 33 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 25 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 10 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 20 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 21 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

86%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

76%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

70%

OVER 2.5

62%

P+R

OVER 24.5STAKE

57%

P+A

OVER 23.5STAKE

78%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.2

21.3

RPG

4.1

5.6

APG

3.7

4.3

vs HOU (H2H)9 games

PPG

24.1

RPG

4.7

APG

5.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Max Christie	2	11	50%	-8.1%	low
Sam Hauser	2	9	67%	+18.6%	low
Sam Merrill	2	9	63%	+1.9%	low
Duncan Robinson	2	9	42%

Herro’s role is secure, but the scoring ceiling is capped by Houston’s slower profile

Tyler Herro is producing 21.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 3.9 APG on the season with 30.7 MPG, while his last 10 sits very close at 21.3 PPG and 5.0 APG. The key role boost is real with Andrew Wiggins (15.9 PPG), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.1 PPG), and Terry Rozier all out, and his assists have climbed to 5.0 over the last 10 and 5.4 over the last 5. Against Houston, he has averaged 24.1 PPG and 5.2 APG in 9 games, but the Rockets’ defense metrics and the fact that this is Miami’s second night with Houston on a back-to-back make the profile a bit less explosive. The best angle leans to assists and possibly threes, while points are closer to fair than a must-bet over.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.8(→ from 21.4)

RPG

7.4(↑ from 4.9)

APG

5.4(↑ from 3.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data should be assumed beyond the listed key defenders: Amen Thompson and Tari Eason. Houston’s defense profile shows a 109.7 defensive rating, 100 pace, and mild three suppression, which slightly tempers Herro’s scoring and three-point upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tyler Herro▼	Points	20.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	25	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	86%HIGH	2/2	70%	4	✓
Tyler Herro▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	100%	1	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Tyler Herro▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	100%	1	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Tyler Herro▼	P+R	24.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	31	✓
Tyler Herro▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	70%	29	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R25.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST3.5OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.111; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA29.5UNDER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS21.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

REB4.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%+7.0% edge▼

3PM2.5UNDER29%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge changed +0.031▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tyler Herro

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because Herro’s 3.87 season average is already above the line, and his recent assist form has jumped to 5.0 over the last 10 and 5.4 over the last 5. The teammate absences create a clear usage and creation boost, making 3.5 the most actionable number on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Amen Thompson	2	5	6	43%	43%
Jabari Smith Jr.	1	4	0	0%	0%
Kevin Durant	1	3	6	75%	75%
Alperen Sengun	2	2	0	0%	0%
Tari Eason	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 20.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.39 PPG and his last 10 is 21.3, so the 20.5 line is slightly below his typical output. The downside is that his trend is down and Houston has a slower 100 pace with some scoring suppression, so this is not a high-confidence over.

reboundsOVER 4.555%MEDIUM

Herro is at 4.91 RPG for the season and 5.2 over the last 10, with 5.6 RPG in away games. The 4.5 line is workable, but the variance is moderate and this is not as strong as his assist angle.

assistsOVER 3.586%HIGH

This is the strongest number on the board: 3.87 APG season, 5.0 in the last 10, and 5.4 over the last 5. He also has a 5.222 APG average in 9 games vs Houston, and the line is below both his season and recent passing production.

threesOVER 2.568%MEDIUM

Herro averages 2.52 made threes per game on the season and 3.1 over the last 10, so this is a modest positive matchup for volume. The concern is that Houston’s three suppression is slightly negative, which keeps confidence from getting too high.

stealsUNDER 1.576%HIGH

He averages just 0.7 steals per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10. A 1.5 line is well above his normal range, making the under the safer side.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

Herro averages only 0.3 blocks per game this season and 0.3 over the last 10. Even with a low line, his block rate is not strong enough to favor the over.

stocksUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His combined steals and blocks profile is only 1.09 stocks per game seasonally and 0.8 over the last 10. That sits below the 1.5 threshold, so the under is the more conservative play.

turnoversOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

Herro is at 2.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 20, which supports this side despite the season mean not being explicitly provided here. His higher usage with teammates out makes turnovers a reasonable over candidate, but the variance keeps confidence moderate.

prOVER 24.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 26.3, and his recent form is similar with 21.8 PPG and 7.4 RPG over the last 5. Combo props carry extra variance, so this stays only a modest lean.

paOVER 23.578%HIGH

Herro’s season points and assists combine to 25.3, and his last 10 passing surge boosts this further. With the assist role elevated by teammate absences, this is a stronger combo than PR.

timelineOVER 20.5 PTS