AI Model:

Collin Gillespie▲

PHX · PG

PPG

13.2

RPG

4.2

APG

4.8

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.6

13.2

8.6

RPG-0.4

4.2

3.8

APG-0.6

4.8

4.2

SPG+0.1

1.3

1.4

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 5 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 0 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 3 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 24 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 4.5BETMGM

55%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

80%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

UNDER 2

64%

PRA

UNDER 18.5STAKE

56%

P+A

UNDER 17.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.9

12.2

RPG

4.3

APG

4.3

6.3

vs MIL (H2H)4 games

PPG

10.5

RPG

4.3

APG

4.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Russell Westbrook	4	14	56%	+8.0%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	12	30%	-22.0%	medium
Cason Wallace	4	10	100%	+58.0%	medium
Julian Champagnie	4	10	30%

Points outlook leans under, while threes remain his best angle

Collin Gillespie is averaging 13.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 4.8 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 8.6 PPG over the last 5 and 11.3 over the last 10. His minutes have held steady around 29-31 MPG, yet the points prop is priced above both his recent and longer-run form, which creates a lean to the under. The stronger opportunity is from beyond the arc: he averages 3.04 threes per game, has hit 2.9 in his last 10, and his value data shows clear plus-edge on the over at multiple books. With no back-to-back and no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, the projection should stay anchored to season-level production rather than the hottest spike games.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↓ from 13.2)

RPG

3.8(↓ from 4.2)

APG

4.2(↓ from 4.8)

3PM

2.0(↓ from 3.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The Bucks defense context shows a 116.38 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a 0.237 scoring suppression plus 1.327 three suppression, while the listed key defenders data is limited and should not be over-interpreted.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Collin Gillespie▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	18	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	60%	4	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	PRA	18.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	28	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	24	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5OVER19%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+13.1% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.330▼

AST3.5UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

3PA8UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PRA17.5UNDER9%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

3PM2.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER42%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Collin Gillespie

Threes OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the strongest combination of form and price support: 3.04 threes per game on the season, 2.9 over the last 10, and a 12.9% edge at DraftKings. Unlike the points market, this number sits below his normal output, making the over much more sustainable.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ryan Rollins	2	8	7	75%	88%
Gary Trent Jr.	1	3	0	0%	0%
AJ Green	2	2	0	0%	0%
Ousmane Dieng	2	2	4	100%	100%
Taurean Prince	2	2	3	25%	38%

pointsUNDER 12.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.2, but the last 5 is only 8.6 and the last 10 is 11.3. The board also gives an under price edge at 12.5, making this the cleaner side versus the higher 14.5 line.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.2 rebounds on the season and 3.8 over the last 5, which sits just below the 4.5 number. The home split is 4.3 RPG, still short of the line.

assistsOVER 4.555%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 4.8 and the last 10 has climbed to 5.4, with an away split of 5.34 APG. The matchup data also supports volume, but the variance keeps confidence moderate.

threesOVER 2.572%HIGH

He averages 3.04 threes per game and 2.9 over the last 10, so clearing 2.5 is well within his normal range. Value data shows a 12.9% edge on the over at DraftKings.

stealsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 steals on the season, but the 1.5 line is slightly above his baseline and his home split falls to 0.7 SPG. This is a decent under lean because the line is asking for above-average defensive counting stats.

blocksUNDER 0.580%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 blocks per game, far below the 0.5 line. This is the clearest under on the board from a raw projection standpoint.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.51, but the recent mean is 1.2 and the home split is just 0.8. With limited margin above the line and normal variance, the under is slightly preferred.

turnoversUNDER 264%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 turnovers in the last 20 and 1.1 in the last 10, with only 0.8 in the last 5. That recent profile sits comfortably below 2.0.

praUNDER 18.556%MEDIUM

Season PRA is 22.2, but the last 5 scoring dip drags the combo closer to the number and combo props carry extra variance. Because of the lower hit rates on combo markets, this is only a modest lean.

paUNDER 17.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 18.0, but recent scoring has fallen to 8.6 while assists are 4.2 over the last 5. The line is tight, so the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS