AI Model:

Jalen Green▼

PHX · SF

PPG

17.2

RPG

3.6

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

23.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.2

17.2

23.4

RPG+1.2

3.6

4.8

APG+1.0

2.6

3.6

SPG+0.4

1.2

1.6

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 20 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 25 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 36 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 34 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 21 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 9 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 17 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

83%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

81%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

STL

OVER 0.5

68%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 25

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.3

20.4

RPG

3.7

3.8

APG

2.4

3.0

vs MIL (H2H)7 games

PPG

22.1

RPG

5.4

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Immanuel Quickley	2	8	29%	-13.9%	low
Brandon Miller	2	7	20%	-22.5%	low
Ousmane Dieng	2	6	33%	-9.2%	low
Sam Hauser	2	6	0%

Green’s scoring is off the recent peak, and the under looks live

Jalen Green is averaging 17.2 PPG on the season, but his last 5 games have climbed to 23.4 PPG with 32.6 MPG, while his last 20 sits much closer to the season line at 17.4 PPG and 26.6 MPG. The current trend is marked down, and his home split is also softer at 14.3 PPG compared to 20.4 PPG away. Against Milwaukee, he has averaged 22.14 PPG, 5.43 RPG, and 3.43 APG in 7 games, but the prop market is pricing his points at 22.5, which is above his season mean and aligned with a tougher under angle.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.4(↑ from 17.2)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 3.6)

APG

3.6(↑ from 2.6)

SPG

1.6(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data for this player. Milwaukee’s team defense context shows a 116.38 defensive rating, and the listed key defenders data does not provide enough reliable detail to isolate a single matchup edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Green▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	1/2	50%	24	✗
Jalen Green▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	2/2	80%	3	✓
Jalen Green▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	2/2	50%	2	✓
Jalen Green▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Jalen Green▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Jalen Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Jalen Green▼	P+A	25	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	26	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5OVER10%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+18.5% edge▼

PRA25.5OVER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+15.0% edge▼

P+R25OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A24.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM2.5UNDER17%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA7UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

REB4.5UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER18%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER21%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

FTM2UNDER42%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

FTA2UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Green

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because the season average is 17.2 PPG, the last 20 is 17.4, and the under has strong value support at multiple books. Even with his recent 23.4 PPG surge, the market line is above both the season and longer-run production, making regression the more likely side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ousmane Dieng	2	6	2	33%	33%
Kyle Kuzma	2	4	5	50%	63%
AJ Green	2	3	9	60%	90%
Ryan Rollins	2	3	4	50%	50%
Cam Thomas	2	3	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 22.583%HIGH

Season mean is 17.2 PPG and the last 20 is 17.4, both below 22.5. The value data also shows a strong UNDER edge with 19.6% best_edge and 37.18 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

reboundsUNDER 5.581%HIGH

He averages 3.6 RPG on the season and 3.8 over the last 20, well below 5.5. Value data shows a 18.0% best_edge on the UNDER with 30.56 EV per 100.

assistsUNDER 3.576%HIGH

His season assist average is 2.6 and the recent mean is 3.2, still below the 3.5 line. The under has positive value with a 7.1% best_edge at DraftKings.

threesOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

He averages 2.27 made threes per game on the season and 2.8 over the last 5, with 2.8 FG3M over the last 10. The recent form supports a narrow over lean, though variance is high.

stealsOVER 0.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, which is comfortably above a 0.5 line. Recent games also show multiple steals upside, including 4 steals vs IND.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.32 and recent mean is 1.6, putting him close to or above this range in recent form. The combined category is volatile, so confidence stays moderate.

paUNDER 2570%HIGH

Using season means, his points plus assists projects to 19.8, and his recent 5-game form projects higher but still faces regression risk from the season baseline. Combo props are volatile, so the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS