Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum | 5 | 15 | 53% | -7.6% | medium |
| Derrick White | 2 | 9 | 75% | +3.5% | low |
| Desmond Bane | 2 | 8 | 70% | +13.5% | low |
| Andrew Nembhard | 2 | 8 | 35% |
Kevin Porter Jr. is carrying a strong all-around workload with season averages of 17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 2.2 steals across 33.2 MPG. Milwaukee’s teammate absences matter here: Giannis Antetokounmpo is out, which supports Porter’s usage and ball-handling, but his recent scoring has cooled to 13.4 PPG over the last 5 while his assists have settled at 5.6. The matchup also leans a bit muted for scoring, as his head-to-head line versus this opponent is just 14.15 PPG over 13 games, and the opponent’s scoring suppression plus three-point suppression are both favorable for the under.
He has no specific defender matchup data beyond the provided key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to anchor on. The opponent context is still relevant: his 13-game history vs this team is 14.15 PPG, and the opponent’s scoring suppression and three-point suppression both point toward a tougher scoring environment.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | Points | 17.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | Assists | 6.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 50% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 50%MEDIUM | — | 60% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | STL+BLK | 3.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 90% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | Turnovers | 2.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 50% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | PRA | 30 | UNDER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% |
Kevin Porter Jr.▼ | P+A | 24.5 | OVER | 53%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
This is the strongest value play in the dataset, with a 12.0% edge at DraftKings and 24.4 EV per 100. Porter averages 5.21 rebounds on the season, 5.2 at home, and 5.4 over the last 5, so the line is below his typical output.
| low |
| Cade Cunningham | 2 | 8 | 33% | -13.2% | low |
Season mean is 17.4 and the last 5 are down to 13.4, which is well below the line. His 13-game average vs this opponent is only 14.15 PPG, making the under the cleaner side.
This is the best value on the card: the model shows a 12.0% edge with 24.4 EV per 100 on the over. He averages 5.21 rebounds on the season and 5.4 over the last 5.
He sits at 7.4 APG on the season and 6.7 over the last 10, so the baseline supports the over even with some recent dip. Giannis being out keeps Porter in a playmaking-heavy role.
He averages 1.21 made threes per game on the season and 1.24 at home. The last 5 are only 0.4, so confidence stays modest, but the season profile still leans over.
He averages 2.2 steals per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, giving this prop a strong baseline. The line is below his normal production level.
He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 10. This is a thin edge, so confidence should stay moderate.
Season stocks average is 2.68 and last 10 are 2.9, which is below a projected 3.5-type threshold. Even with strong defensive counting stats, this is still a high line.
He averages 2.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.0 over the last 10, with several recent games at 3 TOs. The ball-handling load without Giannis supports the over.
His season PRA is 30.0 on the nose, but combo props are high-variance and his last 5 scoring drop lowers the ceiling. This is a cautious lean to the under.
He averages 17.4 points and 7.4 assists, putting his season PA at 24.8. Giannis being out helps keep his playmaking volume intact.