AI Model:

Kevin Porter Jr.▲

MIL · SG

PPG

17.4

RPG

5.2

APG

7.4

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.0

17.4

13.4

RPG+0.2

5.2

5.4

APG-1.8

7.4

5.6

SPG-0.4

2.2

1.8

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

NOP

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs NOP: 25 pts

TOR

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs TOR: 21 pts

MIA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIA: 32 pts

CLE

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs CLE: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs NYK: 11 pts

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 10 pts

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 8 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 6 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 18 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 25 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

STL

OVER 1.5

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5

50%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3.5

56%

OVER 2.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 30

54%

P+A

OVER 24.5

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.0

14.4

RPG

5.2

5.5

APG

7.7

6.4

vs PHX (H2H)13 games

PPG

14.2

RPG

5.1

APG

5.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
CJ McCollum	5	15	53%	-7.6%	medium
Derrick White	2	9	75%	+3.5%	low
Desmond Bane	2	8	70%	+13.5%	low
Andrew Nembhard	2	8	35%

Porter’s role is boosted, but the market may still be too high on points

Kevin Porter Jr. is carrying a strong all-around workload with season averages of 17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 2.2 steals across 33.2 MPG. Milwaukee’s teammate absences matter here: Giannis Antetokounmpo is out, which supports Porter’s usage and ball-handling, but his recent scoring has cooled to 13.4 PPG over the last 5 while his assists have settled at 5.6. The matchup also leans a bit muted for scoring, as his head-to-head line versus this opponent is just 14.15 PPG over 13 games, and the opponent’s scoring suppression plus three-point suppression are both favorable for the under.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↓ from 17.4)

APG

5.6(↓ from 7.4)

RPG

5.4(→ from 5.2)

SPG

1.8(↓ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data beyond the provided key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to anchor on. The opponent context is still relevant: his 13-game history vs this team is 14.15 PPG, and the opponent’s scoring suppression and three-point suppression both point toward a tougher scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	50%MEDIUM	—	60%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	STL+BLK	3.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	90%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	PRA	30	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	P+A	24.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Porter Jr.

Rebounds OVER 4.5HIGH

This is the strongest value play in the dataset, with a 12.0% edge at DraftKings and 24.4 EV per 100. Porter averages 5.21 rebounds on the season, 5.2 at home, and 5.4 over the last 5, so the line is below his typical output.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 17.558%MEDIUM

Season mean is 17.4 and the last 5 are down to 13.4, which is well below the line. His 13-game average vs this opponent is only 14.15 PPG, making the under the cleaner side.

reboundsOVER 4.567%MEDIUM

This is the best value on the card: the model shows a 12.0% edge with 24.4 EV per 100 on the over. He averages 5.21 rebounds on the season and 5.4 over the last 5.

assistsOVER 6.555%MEDIUM

He sits at 7.4 APG on the season and 6.7 over the last 10, so the baseline supports the over even with some recent dip. Giannis being out keeps Porter in a playmaking-heavy role.

threesOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.21 made threes per game on the season and 1.24 at home. The last 5 are only 0.4, so confidence stays modest, but the season profile still leans over.

stealsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.2 steals per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, giving this prop a strong baseline. The line is below his normal production level.

blocksOVER 0.550%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 10. This is a thin edge, so confidence should stay moderate.

stocksUNDER 3.556%MEDIUM

Season stocks average is 2.68 and last 10 are 2.9, which is below a projected 3.5-type threshold. Even with strong defensive counting stats, this is still a high line.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.0 over the last 10, with several recent games at 3 TOs. The ball-handling load without Giannis supports the over.

praUNDER 3054%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 30.0 on the nose, but combo props are high-variance and his last 5 scoring drop lowers the ceiling. This is a cautious lean to the under.

paOVER 24.553%MEDIUM

He averages 17.4 points and 7.4 assists, putting his season PA at 24.8. Giannis being out helps keep his playmaking volume intact.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS