AI Model:

Kyle Kuzma▼

MIL · PF

PPG

13.0

RPG

4.6

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

7.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.4

13.0

7.6

RPG-1.6

4.6

3.0

APG0.0

2.6

SPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

BPG0.0

0.4

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

NYK

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs NYK: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 10 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 16 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 33 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 5 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 11 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 8 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 3 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 11 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

67%

AST

OVER 2.5BETMGM

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5BETMGM

56%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2

57%

P+R

UNDER 17.5STAKE

64%

P+A

OVER 14.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.6

11.0

RPG

3.8

4.3

APG

3.9

1.9

vs PHX (H2H)11 games

PPG

17.2

RPG

5.3

APG

4.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Paul George	3	14	50%	-15.8%	medium
Miles Bridges	4	11	46%	-13.4%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	10	44%	-11.6%	medium
Kon Knueppel	3	10	70%

Giannis’ absence keeps Kuzma’s usage elevated, but recent scoring form is shaky

Kyle Kuzma is still in a spot to handle more offense with Giannis Antetokounmpo out, and his season averages sit at 13.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.6 APG across 26.5 MPG. The concern is recent form: his last 5 games are just 7.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 2.6 APG, which is well below his season baseline and points to a clear downtrend. Phoenix has a modest defensive environment with a 111.21 defensive rating and a 100 pace, which does not strongly boost his scoring ceiling. His best statistical path is still through volume and versatility, but the recent dip and away split make the edges thinner than the season numbers suggest.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.6(↓ from 13.0)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 4.6)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data from the provided key_defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. Phoenix’s team context shows a 111.21 defensive rating and 100 pace, with scoring suppression of -0.946 and three suppression of -1.621, which slightly limits ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kyle Kuzma▼	Points	12.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	20	✓
Kyle Kuzma▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	2	✓
Kyle Kuzma▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Kyle Kuzma▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Kyle Kuzma▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Kyle Kuzma▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Kyle Kuzma▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Kyle Kuzma▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✗
Kyle Kuzma▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	22	✗
Kyle Kuzma▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	21	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA20.5UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PA5UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PTS14UNDER17%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB4UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

AST2OVER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM1.5UNDER38%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Kyle Kuzma

Assists OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value on the board with a 11.8% edge and projected over probability of 0.573 at betMGM, plus similar support at other books. Kuzma’s 2.59 season APG, 2.9 last-10 APG, and Giannis being out all support playmaking upside without relying on a big scoring spike.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Booker	2	7	8	38%	38%
Jalen Green	2	4	2	20%	20%
Jordan Goodwin	2	2	4	100%	100%
Grayson Allen	1	2	0	0%	0%
Collin Gillespie	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 12.558%MEDIUM

The line is below his 13.0 season average and his 13.65 home mean, but the last 5 at 7.6 PPG is a major drag. Giannis being out helps usage, yet the recent scoring dip keeps this only a modest lean.

reboundsUNDER 5.567%MEDIUM

He averages 4.6 RPG on the season and only 3.0 RPG over the last 5, while his away mean is 4.85 and recent rebounding is trending down. The 5.5 line sits above both his season and recent production.

assistsOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

This is supported by the value data: 11.8% edge with our projected over probability at 0.573 and EV of 25.99. His season mean is 2.59 APG, last 10 is 2.9 APG, and teammate absences can support more creation.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 made threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, so the volume is enough to attack a 1.5 line. The recent rise in attempts is helpful, though his three-point output remains volatile.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.7 steals and last 5 is 1.2, which is above the 0.5 threshold. This is a low-variance volume play, but still not as strong as the assists angle.

blocksUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, which is below the line. The block profile is too light to justify an over.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.03 and last 5 is 1.6, giving him a reasonable path to 2 combined steals + blocks. This is still a variance-heavy prop, so confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He has 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.9 over the last 10, with season context also near that range. If his usage rises with Giannis out, turnovers can follow.

prUNDER 17.564%MEDIUM

His season mean for points plus rebounds is 17.55, but the last 5 combination is only 10.6 based on 7.6 PPG and 3.0 RPG. The recent trend makes the under the safer side.

paOVER 14.560%MEDIUM

He combines for 15.6 points + assists on the season, and the 14.5 line is below that baseline. Assists remain the cleaner part of his profile, especially with the usage boost.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS