AI Model:

Oso Ighodaro▲

PHX · C

PPG

6.2

RPG

4.9

APG

2.2

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.0

6.2

9.2

RPG+1.5

4.9

6.4

APG+2.4

2.2

4.6

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 10 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 2 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 8 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 6 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 4 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 15 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

UNDER 7.5BETMGM

82%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.2

9.6

RPG

5.6

6.3

APG

2.7

4.3

vs MIL (H2H)3 games

PPG

6.0

RPG

2.7

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	3	15	75%	+4.6%	medium
Jaxson Hayes	4	13	0%	-65.4%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	10	80%	+14.6%	medium
Deandre Ayton	4	10	100%

Expanded role gives Oso a real path to volume, but the scoring line still looks inflated

Oso Ighodaro is trending up, with his last 5 jumping to 9.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 4.6 APG while playing 30.0 MPG, well above his season marks of 6.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 2.2 APG in 21.6 MPG. The minutes bump is supported by teammate absences, especially Mark Williams being Out with 11.6 PPG and 8.1 RPG, which keeps Oso in a featured frontcourt role. Even with that usage, the market is still pricing his points around 9.5 and rebounds around 7.5, and his season-long baseline plus prior head-to-head history suggest the rebound number is the safer side. The game environment is neutral on rest, and his matchup data does not provide any specific defender matchup data.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↑ from 6.2)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 4.9)

APG

4.6(↑ from 2.2)

STL+BLK

1.8(→ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context shows a 116.38 defensive rating and 100 pace, while his own vs-opponent sample is 3 games with 6.0 PPG, 2.67 RPG, and 1.0 APG in 19.3 MPG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Oso Ighodaro▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	12	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	70%	5	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA18UNDER3%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R15.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+A12.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

PTS8OVER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA2UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

REB6UNDER30%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST3UNDER23%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Oso Ighodaro

Rebounds UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the strongest edge in the provided value data, with a best_edge of 0.271 and our_prob_under at 0.783 at BetMGM. His season rebound average is only 4.9 RPG, and even with the recent minutes boost, 7.5 is still a demanding number.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Myles Turner	2	7	3	100%	150%
Jericho Sims	1	3	2	100%	100%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	1	3	8	43%	43%
Ryan Rollins	2	2	5	33%	42%
Kyle Kuzma	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.2 PPG and his vs-opponent history is only 6.0 PPG in 19.3 MPG. The last-5 surge to 9.2 PPG comes with a larger minutes load, but that still trails the 9.5 line and the over is less attractive than the season baseline.

reboundsUNDER 7.582%HIGH

This is the clearest value side: his season mean is 4.9 RPG, last-10 is 6.9 RPG, and the best value props data shows a strong UNDER with 0.783 win probability and 52.9 EV per 100. Even with extra minutes from absences, 7.5 is still a high bar relative to his season and historical production.

assistsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

He has been better recently at 3.8 APG over the last 10 and 4.6 APG over the last 5, but the season mean is just 2.2 APG and the under is the value side in the market. The line is elevated for a big man whose recent assist spike is tied to a much larger role.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.57 stocks on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, with 1.6 over the last 20, so this is a reasonable volume-based over. The volatility is high, so confidence stays modest.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 BPG and recent block rates have held near 0.6 to 0.7. This is a low threshold that he clears often enough to justify a slight lean over.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS