AI Model:

Ousmane Dieng▲

MIL · SF

PPG

5.8

RPG

2.4

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.4

5.8

9.2

RPG+1.6

2.4

4.0

APG+0.7

1.5

2.2

SPG+0.7

0.3

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

NYK

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs NYK: 0 pts

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 7 pts

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 13 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 14 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 2 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 12 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 0 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 13 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

83%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

UNDER 0.8

70%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

71%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

67%

UNDER 2

69%

PRA

UNDER 16.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 11

63%

UNDER 0.5

73%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.1

7.8

RPG

4.3

2.1

APG

2.5

1.3

vs PHX (H2H)8 games

PPG

5.9

RPG

3.3

APG

0.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Devin Booker	2	9	27%	-19.3%	low
Jalen Green	2	9	27%	-15.1%	low
Kevin Durant	1	7	33%	-9.1%	low
Kyle Filipowski	4	7	71%	+29.0%

Expanded role, but the market still leans under on most of Dieng’s counting stats

Ousmane Dieng’s form has improved sharply, with his last 5 at 9.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.2 APG versus season marks of 5.8, 2.4, and 1.5. He’s also logging far more court time lately at 26.2 MPG over the last 5 and 25.4 MPG over the last 10, which supports the recent bump. Even with that usage lift, the available market data still prices his points, rebounds, assists, and threes below his recent run, and his season base remains modest enough to keep the unders in play. The biggest statistical caution is variance: his points and rebounds profiles are volatile, so confidence should stay controlled.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↑ from 5.8)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 2.4)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Phoenix’s opponent profile shows a 111.21 defensive rating, 100 pace, and three suppression of -1.621, which is a modest drag on perimeter production rather than a boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ousmane Dieng▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	40%	11	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	1/2	70%	2	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	60%	2	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	1	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	Steals	0.8	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	40%	1	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	90%	2	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	PRA	16.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	15	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	P+A	11	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	13	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5UNDER25%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x2/2010%+39.5% edge▼

PRA28.5UNDER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)2/2010%+37.6% edge▼

AST4.5UNDER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%+17.4% edge▼

3PA4UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB5.5UNDER18%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%+16.5% edge▼

P+R15.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER58%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%+22.3% edge▼

FTA0.5UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Ousmane Dieng

Rebounds UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board: the draftkings line is 4.5, his season rebound average is 2.43, and the value data shows best_edge at 26.2% with our_prob_under at 0.757. Even with the recent minute spike to 25.4 MPG, the underlying rebound baseline and the 8-game vs-opponent average of 3.25 still point under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Booker	2	9	7	23%	27%
Jalen Green	2	9	8	27%	27%
Oso Ighodaro	3	3	2	100%	100%
Jordan Goodwin	3	2	0	0%	0%
Rasheer Fleming	3	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 9.574%HIGH

His season mean is 5.8 PPG, and even with the recent surge to 9.2 PPG, the book line of 9.5 sits above both season and vs-opponent average of 5.875 PPG. The last-5 is hot, but the over bias warning and the lack of a stronger long-run scoring baseline keep the under viable.

reboundsUNDER 4.583%HIGH

This is the clearest edge: his season rebound mean is 2.43, last 5 is 4.0, and the value data shows the UNDER at 4.5 with a best_edge of 0.262 and our_prob_under of 0.757. The recent jump is real, but his season profile and 8-game vs-opponent rebound average of 3.25 still point below the line.

assistsUNDER 2.572%HIGH

He averages 1.48 APG on the season and 0.875 APG in 8 games vs this opponent, while the market line is 2.5. Recent minutes have helped, but his assist distribution remains volatile with season_std at 1.79.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.14 threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 5, but the line at 1.5 is still above his season baseline. The recent hot stretch helps the over case, yet the season mean and the opponent’s three suppression lean under.

stealsUNDER 0.870%HIGH

Season steals average is only 0.3, below meaningful volume for an over case. Even with a recent uptick in activity, the profile does not support a confident steal over.

blocksUNDER 0.571%HIGH

He averages 0.3 blocks per game on the season, which is below a typical 0.5 line. Recent block production has been sporadic rather than stable.

stocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 0.66, and even recent stocks at 1.1 do not clear a 1.5 expectation with enough consistency. The combined volatility is still too high for an over lean.

turnoversUNDER 269%MEDIUM

His last 5 turnovers are 1.4 and last 10 are 1.5, both below a 2.0 line. He’s been handling a larger role, but not to a turnover level that justifies the over.

praUNDER 16.561%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his projected PRA is 9.7, while his recent run has pushed that closer to the mid-teens. Because combo props carry extra variance and his role can swing, the under is still the safer side.

paUNDER 1163%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists baseline is 7.3, and recent form has improved but not enough to make 11.0 a comfortable over. The market is asking for sustained usage that hasn’t shown up consistently.

double_doubleUNDER 0.573%HIGH

He has some DD potential, but the season averages are still well below double-double territory in both points and rebounds. His recent 12-point, 10-rebound game shows the ceiling, not the median.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS