Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 2 | 9 | 27% | -19.3% | low |
| Jalen Green | 2 | 9 | 27% | -15.1% | low |
| Kevin Durant | 1 | 7 | 33% | -9.1% | low |
| Kyle Filipowski | 4 | 7 | 71% | +29.0% |
Ousmane Dieng’s form has improved sharply, with his last 5 at 9.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.2 APG versus season marks of 5.8, 2.4, and 1.5. He’s also logging far more court time lately at 26.2 MPG over the last 5 and 25.4 MPG over the last 10, which supports the recent bump. Even with that usage lift, the available market data still prices his points, rebounds, assists, and threes below his recent run, and his season base remains modest enough to keep the unders in play. The biggest statistical caution is variance: his points and rebounds profiles are volatile, so confidence should stay controlled.
No specific defender matchup data. Phoenix’s opponent profile shows a 111.21 defensive rating, 100 pace, and three suppression of -1.621, which is a modest drag on perimeter production rather than a boost.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ousmane Dieng▼ | Points | 9.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 2/2 | 40% | 11 | ✗ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 83%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 1 | ✓ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | Steals | 0.8 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | — | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 2 | ✗ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | PRA | 16.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 15 | ✓ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | P+A | 11 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 13 | ✗ |
Ousmane Dieng▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 73%HIGH | — | — | — | — |
This is the strongest value on the board: the draftkings line is 4.5, his season rebound average is 2.43, and the value data shows best_edge at 26.2% with our_prob_under at 0.757. Even with the recent minute spike to 25.4 MPG, the underlying rebound baseline and the 8-game vs-opponent average of 3.25 still point under.
| medium |
| Ace Bailey | 3 | 6 | 63% | +7.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 2 | 9 | 7 | 23% | 27% |
| Jalen Green | 2 | 9 | 8 | 27% | 27% |
| Oso Ighodaro | 3 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Jordan Goodwin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Rasheer Fleming | 3 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
His season mean is 5.8 PPG, and even with the recent surge to 9.2 PPG, the book line of 9.5 sits above both season and vs-opponent average of 5.875 PPG. The last-5 is hot, but the over bias warning and the lack of a stronger long-run scoring baseline keep the under viable.
This is the clearest edge: his season rebound mean is 2.43, last 5 is 4.0, and the value data shows the UNDER at 4.5 with a best_edge of 0.262 and our_prob_under of 0.757. The recent jump is real, but his season profile and 8-game vs-opponent rebound average of 3.25 still point below the line.
He averages 1.48 APG on the season and 0.875 APG in 8 games vs this opponent, while the market line is 2.5. Recent minutes have helped, but his assist distribution remains volatile with season_std at 1.79.
He averages 1.14 threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 5, but the line at 1.5 is still above his season baseline. The recent hot stretch helps the over case, yet the season mean and the opponent’s three suppression lean under.
Season steals average is only 0.3, below meaningful volume for an over case. Even with a recent uptick in activity, the profile does not support a confident steal over.
He averages 0.3 blocks per game on the season, which is below a typical 0.5 line. Recent block production has been sporadic rather than stable.
Season stocks are 0.66, and even recent stocks at 1.1 do not clear a 1.5 expectation with enough consistency. The combined volatility is still too high for an over lean.
His last 5 turnovers are 1.4 and last 10 are 1.5, both below a 2.0 line. He’s been handling a larger role, but not to a turnover level that justifies the over.
Using season averages, his projected PRA is 9.7, while his recent run has pushed that closer to the mid-teens. Because combo props carry extra variance and his role can swing, the under is still the safer side.
His season points plus assists baseline is 7.3, and recent form has improved but not enough to make 11.0 a comfortable over. The market is asking for sustained usage that hasn’t shown up consistently.
He has some DD potential, but the season averages are still well below double-double territory in both points and rebounds. His recent 12-point, 10-rebound game shows the ceiling, not the median.