AI Model:

Ryan Rollins▼

MIL · PG

PPG

16.8

RPG

4.6

APG

5.6

L5 PPG

18.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.6

16.8

18.4

RPG-1.4

4.6

3.2

APG+1.2

5.6

6.8

SPG-0.7

1.5

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 5 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 13 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 16 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 22 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 20 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 15 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

51%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

OVER 3

61%

P+A

UNDER 25.5

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.3

17.5

RPG

4.7

4.3

APG

5.6

6.5

vs PHX (H2H)3 games

PPG

15.0

RPG

3.7

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	3	25	57%	+2.7%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	20	65%	+4.9%	medium
Jalen Pickett	2	17	44%	-14.0%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	16	71%

Rollins' usage stays elevated, but scoring and playmaking lines look better for the UNDER

Ryan Rollins enters this matchup with strong season volume at 16.8 PPG, 5.6 APG, and 32.2 MPG, and the Giannis absence keeps his role supported. However, his recent scoring has dipped to 15.2 PPG over the last 10 and 15.2 PPG is below his last-5 mark of 18.4, while his assists profile is also volatile with a 2.5 season std and 3.26 recent std. Phoenix has allowed a 111.21 defensive rating and the game total context is not enough to push the more common overs past their season baselines, especially with Rollins' B2B mean lower across key stats. The cleanest edge in the data is rebounds at a modest line, while points and assists are more balanced toward cautious under consideration.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.4(↑ from 16.8)

APG

6.8(↑ from 5.6)

RPG

3.2(↓ from 4.6)

Stocks

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows Phoenix with a 111.21 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a -0.946 scoring suppression, so this is not a major pace boost spot. For defender context, Collin Gillespie is listed at 16.1 minutes with 18 points allowed and 0.5454545454545454 FG%, while the other listed defenders have no meaningful minutes data here.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ryan Rollins▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	26	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	10	✓
Ryan Rollins▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
Ryan Rollins▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	30%	3	✗
Ryan Rollins▼	P+A	25.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	33	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5OVER4%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA29.5OVER2%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA7UNDER45%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)3/2015%▼

FTM2UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

AST7UNDER11%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

STL1UNDER19%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM2.5UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

REB4UNDER15%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Ryan Rollins

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board because the provided value data shows a 5.5% edge and 9.12 EV per 100 at betonlineag. Rollins has a 4.6 rebound season average, 4.2 over the last 10, and the 3.5 line sits well below both.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Collin Gillespie	2	12	9	38%	56%
Grayson Allen	1	4	0	0%	0%
Devin Booker	2	3	1	0%	0%
Jalen Green	2	3	4	40%	40%
Jordan Goodwin	2	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.8, but the recent 10-game mark is 15.2 and the last-5 scoring is 18.4, which is above season but not enough to fully trust with the OVER bias warning. The data shows higher B2B scoring at 14.45 and his opponent history is 15 PPG across 3 games, making the under the more conservative side.

reboundsOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

This is the only prop with a clear positive edge in the provided value data: 5.5% edge and 9.12 EV per 100 at betonlineag. Rollins averages 4.6 rebounds on the season and has 4.2 over the last 10, so 3.5 is well below his typical production.

assistsUNDER 5.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.58 and recent mean is 6.4, but the assist line is inflated relative to his baseline and the season std is 2.5. The best value data also leans under at this number, and his B2B assist mean is 4.91.

threesUNDER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.46 threes on the season, which is below the 2.5 line, and the recent mean of 2.6 is only a small step up. With a 1.48 season std and no positive edge on the provided value list at this exact line, this is a cautious under.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Rollins averages 1.5 steals seasonally, but his last-5 mark is 0.8 and last-10 is 1.4, which points slightly below the threshold. The line is aggressive for a player with uneven game-to-game steal output.

blocksOVER 0.551%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so this is close to a coin flip. The recent rate is enough to justify a small over lean, but the confidence stays low.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.9 and last-10 is 1.9, both above the 1.5 threshold. Even with a dip to 1.4 over the last 5, the season-long baseline supports the over more than the under.

turnoversOVER 361%MEDIUM

He is running at 2.8 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.5 over the last 20, so a 3.0 line is live. His recent game logs include multiple 3+ turnover outings, which supports the over.

paUNDER 25.554%MEDIUM

Using season averages, points plus assists projects to 22.36, which is well below a 25.5 combo line. Combo props are high variance, so the conservative side is the under.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS