Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 3 | 25 | 57% | +2.7% | medium |
| Immanuel Quickley | 4 | 20 | 65% | +4.9% | medium |
| Jalen Pickett | 2 | 17 | 44% | -14.0% | low |
| Jalen Brunson | 3 | 16 | 71% |
Ryan Rollins enters this matchup with strong season volume at 16.8 PPG, 5.6 APG, and 32.2 MPG, and the Giannis absence keeps his role supported. However, his recent scoring has dipped to 15.2 PPG over the last 10 and 15.2 PPG is below his last-5 mark of 18.4, while his assists profile is also volatile with a 2.5 season std and 3.26 recent std. Phoenix has allowed a 111.21 defensive rating and the game total context is not enough to push the more common overs past their season baselines, especially with Rollins' B2B mean lower across key stats. The cleanest edge in the data is rebounds at a modest line, while points and assists are more balanced toward cautious under consideration.
The opponent data shows Phoenix with a 111.21 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a -0.946 scoring suppression, so this is not a major pace boost spot. For defender context, Collin Gillespie is listed at 16.1 minutes with 18 points allowed and 0.5454545454545454 FG%, while the other listed defenders have no meaningful minutes data here.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Rollins▼ | Points | 15.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 26 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 10 | ✓ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Assists | 5.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 7 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 3 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 51%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | Turnovers | 3 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 3 | ✗ |
Ryan Rollins▼ | P+A | 25.5 | UNDER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 33 | ✗ |
This is the strongest value on the board because the provided value data shows a 5.5% edge and 9.12 EV per 100 at betonlineag. Rollins has a 4.6 rebound season average, 4.2 over the last 10, and the 3.5 line sits well below both.
| medium |
| Dennis Schröder | 4 | 16 | 39% | -14.0% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Gillespie | 2 | 12 | 9 | 38% | 56% |
| Grayson Allen | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Devin Booker | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| Jalen Green | 2 | 3 | 4 | 40% | 40% |
| Jordan Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 16.8, but the recent 10-game mark is 15.2 and the last-5 scoring is 18.4, which is above season but not enough to fully trust with the OVER bias warning. The data shows higher B2B scoring at 14.45 and his opponent history is 15 PPG across 3 games, making the under the more conservative side.
This is the only prop with a clear positive edge in the provided value data: 5.5% edge and 9.12 EV per 100 at betonlineag. Rollins averages 4.6 rebounds on the season and has 4.2 over the last 10, so 3.5 is well below his typical production.
His season mean is 5.58 and recent mean is 6.4, but the assist line is inflated relative to his baseline and the season std is 2.5. The best value data also leans under at this number, and his B2B assist mean is 4.91.
He averages 2.46 threes on the season, which is below the 2.5 line, and the recent mean of 2.6 is only a small step up. With a 1.48 season std and no positive edge on the provided value list at this exact line, this is a cautious under.
Rollins averages 1.5 steals seasonally, but his last-5 mark is 0.8 and last-10 is 1.4, which points slightly below the threshold. The line is aggressive for a player with uneven game-to-game steal output.
He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so this is close to a coin flip. The recent rate is enough to justify a small over lean, but the confidence stays low.
His season stocks average is 1.9 and last-10 is 1.9, both above the 1.5 threshold. Even with a dip to 1.4 over the last 5, the season-long baseline supports the over more than the under.
He is running at 2.8 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.5 over the last 20, so a 3.0 line is live. His recent game logs include multiple 3+ turnover outings, which supports the over.
Using season averages, points plus assists projects to 22.36, which is well below a 25.5 combo line. Combo props are high variance, so the conservative side is the under.