AI Model:

Ziaire Williams—

BKN · PF

PPG

9.7

RPG

2.4

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

9.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.1

9.7

9.8

RPG+0.2

2.4

2.6

APG+0.4

1.0

1.4

SPG+0.2

1.2

1.4

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

OVER 1.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

1.5

BOS

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BOS: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CLE: 4 pts

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 16 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs DET: 23 pts

MEM

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs MEM: 11 pts

PHI

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs PHI: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs POR: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 5 pts

NYK

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs NYK: 17 pts

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

PTS

OVER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 1

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

P+R

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.7

10.0

RPG

3.4

1.6

APG

1.7

1.2

vs SAC (H2H)5 games

PPG

5.6

RPG

1.8

APG

0.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	3	10	40%	-2.5%	medium
James Harden	3	9	33%	-9.2%	medium
Jalen Brunson	3	8	64%	+12.0%	medium
Anfernee Simons	4	8	44%

Ziaire Williams leans toward threes, but rebounds and combo volume stay capped

Williams is producing a stable scoring profile, with 9.7 PPG on the season and 10.3 over the last 20, while his 1.58 threes per game give him clear 3-point volume. His last-5 scoring is 9.8 and his minutes have stayed near his season norm, so there is no major hot streak pushing him far above baseline. The matchup environment is mixed: Sacramento’s opponent defense data is not especially restrictive, but his own head-to-head sample vs this opponent is weak at 5.6 PPG in 16.2 MPG across 5 games. With teammate absences potentially supporting usage, the best angle is still the threes market rather than a points or combo over.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.8(→ from 9.7)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.4)

APG

1.4(↑ from 1.0)

3PM

1.6(→ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defender note, so the main matchup takeaway is the opponent context. Sacramento’s defense allows a 120.99 rating, but Williams has struggled in the head-to-head sample, averaging 5.6 PPG and 1.8 RPG in 5 games against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ziaire Williams▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	78%HIGH	2/2	50%	2	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%	2	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	Points	9.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	18	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	Assists	1	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+A13OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Ziaire Williams

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fit for his season profile because he averages 1.58 made threes and has stayed near that level recently at 1.6 over the last 20. The value screen is also very strong across books, with the best edge listed at 0.2 and positive EV on the OVER.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan	1	5	3	50%	50%
Dylan Cardwell	1	0	0	0%	0%
Devin Carter	1	0	0	0%	0%

threesOVER 1.578%HIGH

He averages 1.58 threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 20, which aligns well with a 1.5 line. The value data also shows strong support for the OVER, including a 0.195 best edge at DraftKings and 0.2 at Bovada.

reboundsUNDER 2.574%HIGH

Williams averages only 2.4 rebounds on the season and 2.5 over the last 20, while his last-10 rebounds are just 1.9. The under is reinforced by his weaker opponent history at 1.8 RPG across 5 games versus this team.

pointsOVER 9.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 9.7 PPG and he has averaged 10.3 over the last 20, so the 9.5 line is reachable but not a smash spot. The best value is only modest on points, so this stays a lower-confidence over.

assistsOVER 156%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 assists on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, with recent minutes around 21.0 to 23.4. The role bump from teammate absences helps, but the assist profile remains volatile.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

Williams has a 1.6 season average in stocks and 1.4 over the last 5, with 1.5 over the last 20. His steal production is consistent enough to justify a modest over lean at this level.

prUNDER 12.569%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 12.1, and the rebound profile is modest enough to make 12.5 a difficult over. Given the historical caution on combo props, the under is the safer side.

timelineOVER 1.5 PTS