AI Model:

Jayson Tatum▼

BOS · PF

PPG

19.6

RPG

8.6

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

20.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

19.6

20.4

RPG+0.4

8.6

9.0

APG-0.4

3.4

3.0

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

PHX

2025-04-04

2025-04-04 vs PHX: 23 pts

NYK

2025-04-08

2025-04-08 vs NYK: 32 pts

CHA

2025-04-11

2025-04-11 vs CHA: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 15 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 24 pts

MEM

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MEM: 13 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

64%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 33.5FANDUEL

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.1

24.7

RPG

9.1

7.5

APG

6.6

5.0

vs MIN (H2H)9 games

PPG

33.4

RPG

7.9

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Andrew Wiggins	1	6	75%	+8.8%	low
Jaden McDaniels	1	5	50%	+8.8%	low
Chet Holmgren	1	5	50%	-7.9%	low
Taylor Hendricks	1	5	67%

Tatum's rebounding edge stands out, while scoring projects closer to the under

Jayson Tatum is averaging 19.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 29.6 MPG this season, with his last 5 at 20.4/9.0/3.0 and a clear downtrend from his last 20 mark of 24.0 points and 5.7 assists. The matchup is favorable for rebounds and tough for efficient scoring: Minnesota's defense is listed with a 114.77 defensive rating, a -0.126 scoring suppression, and a -0.193 three suppression, while Tatum also has stronger production at home in rebounding and assists. His history vs this opponent is much stronger than his season baseline at 33.4 points and 7.9 rebounds across 9 games, but the current sportsbook market is still hanging a high points line relative to his recent season form. The best angle is the rebound market, where the combination of role, home split, and value pricing is most supportive.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.4(→ from 19.6)

RPG

9.0(↑ from 8.6)

APG

3.0(↓ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

Minnesota's defense is posted with a 114.77 defensive rating, a -0.126 scoring suppression, and a -0.193 three suppression, which trims upside on scoring and perimeter efficiency. There is specific defender matchup data available, but the overall profile still suggests a tougher scoring environment than Tatum's strong historical numbers vs this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jayson Tatum▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	16	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	60%	11	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	PRA	33.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	29	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS21.5OVER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

AST4.5OVER51%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x8/1457%▼

PRA35.5OVER29%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x8/1457%▼

P+R31.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

STL0.5OVER35%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/1471%▼

FTA4.5OVER4%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)7/1450%▼

R+A15.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x7/1450%▼

3PM3.5UNDER36%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)5/1436%+5.1% edge▼

3PA8.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1450%▼

REB8.5UNDER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/1471%▼

P+A26.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x6/1443%▼

FTM3UNDER12%gbtAvoid (7/20)6/1443%▼

Featured Pick

Jayson Tatum

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest projection on the board: he averages 8.6 rebounds for the season, 9.0 over the last 5, and 10.75 at home in the provided splits. The value data is strongly supportive too, with multiple books showing an over edge above 14%, including a 14.7% edge at DraftKings.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaden McDaniels	1	5	2	50%	50%
Julius Randle	1	3	4	100%	100%
Ayo Dosunmu	1	1	2	33%	33%
Rudy Gobert	1	1	0	0%	0%
Bones Hyland	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 21.566%MEDIUM

He is at 19.6 PPG for the season and 20.4 over the last 5, both below 21.5. His recent trend is down, and while he has strong history vs this opponent, the current form does not support chasing an over.

reboundsOVER 7.572%HIGH

He averages 8.6 rebounds for the season and 9.0 over the last 5, both above 7.5. The value data also shows positive edge on multiple books, including a 14.7% edge at DraftKings on the over.

assistsUNDER 4.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.4 assists and last 5 is 3.0, both below 4.5. The assist line is being priced above his typical output, and the recent trend does not indicate a clear uptick.

threesOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.86 threes per game season-long and 2.86 in the recent sample, which is above 2.5. The edge is not huge, but the volume is consistently there.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 stocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, which is below 1.5. With limited block production and only moderate steal volume, the over would need an outsized defensive game.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 2.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 5, so 2.0 is a live over target. The recent logs also show multiple games with 2+ turnovers.

praUNDER 33.556%MEDIUM

His season PRA based on the provided averages is 31.6, and the last 5 still sits around 32.4. Combo props carry extra variance, and the market number is a bit above his current baseline.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS