AI Model:

Neemias Queta▼

BOS · C

PPG

9.9

RPG

8.3

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.7

9.9

10.6

RPG-0.1

8.3

8.2

APG+1.1

1.5

2.6

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.3

1.3

1.0

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

PHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs PHI: 27 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 16 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 4 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 5 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 24 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 5 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 8 pts

MEM

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MEM: 12 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 1.5

58%

BLK

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

67%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

61%

P+R

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

64%

P+A

OVER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.4

8.6

RPG

7.8

9.8

APG

1.8

1.4

vs MIN (H2H)2 games

PPG

13.5

RPG

11.5

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nic Claxton	3	19	43%	-21.9%	medium
Jalen Duren	3	19	50%	-14.8%	medium
Bam Adebayo	4	16	54%	-18.6%	medium
Andre Drummond	4	15	86%

Queta’s rebounding floor is solid, but scoring comes with a modest ceiling

Neemias Queta is averaging 9.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists on the season, with recent production staying close to that profile at 10.7 points and 9.0 rebounds over his last 10. His points trend is labeled down, and his last-5 scoring at 10.6 is only slightly above season level, so this is not a strong over environment for points. The matchup is mixed: he has two games vs this opponent and averaged 13.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in those meetings, but Minnesota’s defense context is not especially soft. Anthony Edwards being out helps Boston’s overall game environment, but Queta still has more stable value in rebounds and combo board stats than in a pure scoring bet.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↓ from 9.9)

RPG

8.2(→ from 8.3)

APG

2.6(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Rudy Gobert is the only specific defender matchup data provided, and the data also lists Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels with limited minutes against him. Queta’s two-game history versus this opponent is strong at 13.5 points and 11.5 rebounds, but there is no broad defensive soft spot in the supplied opponent profile to rely on.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Neemias Queta▼	Points	9.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	10	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Neemias Queta▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Neemias Queta▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✓
Neemias Queta▼	P+A	11.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	5	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.079▼

REB7.5UNDER17%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)12/2060%▼

PRA19.5OVER34%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 6x11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

BLK1.5UNDER40%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A10.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Neemias Queta

Points OVER 9.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of price and projection: he averages 9.9 points on the season, 10.7 over the last 10, and both DraftKings and FanDuel show 9.5 as the main line. The recent data is volatile, but the baseline and available value pricing still support a slight lean to the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Rudy Gobert	2	12	7	100%	100%
Julius Randle	2	2	1	0%	0%
Kyle Anderson	1	2	0	0%	0%
Anthony Edwards	1	1	7	29%	36%
Naz Reid	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 9.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.9 and the last 10 are 10.7, so 9.5 is a reachable number. Value props also show a positive edge on this range, but his recent game log is volatile, so confidence stays moderate.

reboundsUNDER 8.556%MEDIUM

He averages 8.3 rebounds for the season and 8.5 at home, which sits below or right at the line. The last-10 rebound average of 9.0 supports some upside, but the season baseline makes this a slightly cautious under in a variance-prone spot.

assistsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 1.5 and the last-5 are 2.6, with 1.8 at home. The role is enough to keep him around the line, but the season mean prevents high confidence.

blocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 blocks per game on the season, below 1.5, and the last-10 block rate is 1.1. With moderate variance but no clear reason to expect a spike, the under is the cleaner side.

stocksUNDER 261%MEDIUM

Season stocks average is 2.11, but recent form is 1.7 over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10. That leaves room for an over, but the recent dip and variance make the under safer.

prUNDER 18.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 18.2 using the provided season means, which is just under this line. Even with a solid head-to-head sample, the season baseline is not strong enough to push an over confidently.

paOVER 11.557%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists totals 11.4, but last-5 assists have jumped to 2.6 while points remain steady. This is close enough to the number to lean over, but only with modest confidence.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS