Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 3 | 12 | 50% | -3.3% | medium |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 4 | 11 | 75% | +8.2% | medium |
| Cooper Flagg | 2 | 9 | 33% | -8.5% | low |
| Andrew Wiggins | 3 | 7 | 61% |
Sam Hauser’s season baseline sits at 9.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 1.5 APG in 24.5 MPG, but his recent scoring has dipped to 5.6 PPG over the last 5 and 7.7 PPG over the last 10. The opponent context helps: Anthony Edwards is out, which can open up scoring and shot volume, and Hauser’s away splits are stronger than his home splits at 10.3 PPG and 2.8 threes made. Still, Minnesota’s defense shows a 114.77 defensive rating with -0.193 three suppression, and his head-to-head line against this opponent is only 6.7 PPG in 16 MPG, so the profile is more balanced than explosive. Given the over-bias warning and his recent downturn, the stronger lean is on the lower-volume side for most counting props.
No specific defender matchup data is provided beyond the listed Minnesota key defenders, so the main matchup note is team-level: Minnesota allows a 114.77 defensive rating, but also shows -0.193 three suppression, which matters for a perimeter shooter like Hauser. Anthony Edwards being out helps the offensive environment, but there is no specific defender matchup data to target.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sam Hauser▼ | Points | 7.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 2 | ✗ |
Sam Hauser▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% | 2 | ✗ |
Sam Hauser▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Sam Hauser▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
Sam Hauser▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Sam Hauser▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Sam Hauser▼ | Turnovers | 1 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | — | 100% | 0 | ✓ |
Sam Hauser▼ | P+R | 10.5 | OVER | 51%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 4 | ✗ |
Hauser averages only 0.2 turnovers per game on the season and 0.3 over his last 10, far below the projected line. Unlike his points and threes props, this does not rely on efficiency or shot volume and is the cleanest statistical edge in the data.
| medium |
| AJ Green | 3 | 7 | 0% | -41.8% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte DiVincenzo | 2 | 4 | 5 | 50% | 63% |
| Julius Randle | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Naz Reid | 2 | 2 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels | 2 | 2 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
His season mean is 9.0 PPG and his away mean is 10.3 PPG, while the market line is 7.5. Anthony Edwards being out can help volume, but his last 5 at 5.6 PPG keeps this from being a strong play.
He averages 3.9 RPG on the season and 4.4 RPG away, with 4.5 RPG over the last 10. The edge is modest, but the line is below his season average and recent rebounding level.
His season mean is 1.46 APG, last 5 is 1.2, and last 10 is 1.1, all below the 1.5 line. With limited playmaking volume, the under is the cleaner side.
He averages 2.54 threes made per game on the season and 2.8 away, which is above this 2.5 line. Even with Minnesota’s -0.193 three suppression, his volume and away splits keep the over playable.
He averages only 0.3 BPG on the season and 0.4 in his last 10, so clearing 0.5 requires an above-normal night. This is a lower-variance under compared with his scoring props.
His season stocks rate is 0.87 and his last 10 is 1.0, both below 1.5. Even with an occasional spike, the combined steals-plus-blocks line is too high for his baseline.
He averages just 0.2 turnovers per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. This is well below the projected line and one of the safest unders in his profile.
His season points plus rebounds average is roughly 12.9, and his away scoring/rebounding profile is stronger than at home. The recent scoring dip makes this only a slight lean over.