AI Model:

Jakob Poeltl▲

TOR · C

PPG

10.7

RPG

7.8

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

15.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.3

10.7

15.0

RPG+1.8

7.8

9.6

APG-0.1

2.1

2.0

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

SAS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAS: 15 pts

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 18 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 8 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 21 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 17 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 23 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETONLINEAG

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

62%

P+R

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.2

10.1

RPG

8.1

7.0

APG

2.0

2.5

vs PHX (H2H)7 games

PPG

14.3

RPG

9.6

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Kalkbrenner	3	21	57%	-12.7%	medium
Jalen Duren	2	13	75%	+5.2%	low
Kristaps Porziņģis	2	10	41%	-38.5%	low
Andre Drummond	1	10	25%

Poeltl’s recent rebounding surge meets a tough number in Phoenix

Jakob Poeltl’s form is trending up, with his last 5 at 15.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, and 28.6 MPG versus season marks of 10.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 25.9 MPG. The biggest concern is regression: his recent scoring and rebounding are well above season averages, while Phoenix has a 111.17 defensive rating and the game is on the road for Toronto. He has shown upside in this matchup before, averaging 14.29 PPG and 9.57 RPG in 7 games vs the Suns, but the books are still hanging a higher rebound line at 8.5. With the data pointing to a strong but volatile role, the safest angle is to lean under on the inflated rebound and scoring expectations.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.0(↑ from 10.7)

RPG

9.6(↑ from 7.8)

APG

2.0(→ from 2.1)

Stocks

1.6(→ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Phoenix’s defense is listed at a 111.17 defensive rating with pace 100 and a 0.948 scoring suppression mark, which slightly pressures Poeltl’s scoring ceiling even though his history vs this opponent is solid.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jakob Poeltl▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	1/2	60%	0	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB7.5UNDER29%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%+14.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA22.5UNDER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+8.8% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS11.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jakob Poeltl

Rebounds UNDER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value in the data set. His season average is 7.8 rebounds, last-20 is 7.5, and the value props show the under as the best side with a 0.33 edge and 64.45 EV per 100 at betmgm. The recent 9.6 RPG stretch is real, but it sits above his longer baseline and makes the under the better regression play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Oso Ighodaro	2	7	2	25%	25%
Rasheer Fleming	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jalen Green	2	1	18	88%	100%
Khaman Maluach	2	1	3	100%	150%
Devin Booker	2	1	6	50%	63%

pointsUNDER 11.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.7 points, and the last-20 is exactly 10.7, which is below the 11.5 line. The recent 15.0 PPG run is above season level, so this is more of a regression spot than a clear over.

reboundsUNDER 8.584%HIGH

This is the strongest angle: his season mean is 7.79 RPG, last-20 is 7.5 RPG, and the value data shows a 0.33 best edge on the under. Even with 9.6 RPG over the last 5, the line sits above his season baseline and the recent surge is likely to cool.

assistsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

Poeltl averages 2.09 assists on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, but the line is still 2.5. The assist profile has a high standard deviation of 1.84, so confidence should stay modest and the under is slightly preferred.

blocksOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, which clears a 0.5 line. Variance is present, but the recent block rate supports the over.

stocksOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

Poeltl’s season stocks average is 1.53 and his last 10 is 2.3, so a 1.5 threshold is reachable. The combined category is still volatile, but the recent form is strong enough to lean over.

prUNDER 20.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 18.47 combined from the season means, while the line is 20.5. Recent form is hot, but combo props have added variance and the under is the more conservative side.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS