AI Model:

RJ Barrett—

TOR · SF

PPG

19.0

RPG

5.4

APG

3.2

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.2

19.0

21.2

RPG+0.2

5.4

5.6

APG-0.8

3.2

2.4

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 20 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 31 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 18 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5STAKE

64%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

60%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

67%

3PM

OVER 1.5

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

73%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

OVER 29

54%

P+A

UNDER 22

66%

P+R

UNDER 24.5

61%

R+A

UNDER 8.5

70%

UNDER 0.5

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.7

18.2

RPG

6.2

5.3

APG

3.4

2.2

vs PHX (H2H)10 games

PPG

18.0

RPG

4.2

APG

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dyson Daniels	4	18	53%	+4.1%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	11	50%	+0.8%	low
Michael Porter Jr.	2	10	31%	-24.2%	low
P.J. Washington	2	10	70%

RJ Barrett’s scoring floor is solid, but the matchup leans to a restrained night

RJ Barrett is averaging 19.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 3.2 APG this season, with his last-5 scoring up to 21.2 PPG and his last-10 at 22.8 PPG. That said, his season-long profile is closer to his current projection than the hotter short-term run: his last-20 scoring is 19.1 PPG and his road scoring drops to 18.2 PPG. Phoenix has a strong scoring-suppression profile and a negative three-point suppression number, which makes this a tougher environment for an efficiency-driven scoring outing. The absence of A.J. Lawson is too small to materially shift his usage, so the strongest angles are still centered on his baseline season averages rather than a big role spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↑ from 19.0)

RPG

5.6(→ from 5.4)

APG

2.4(↓ from 3.2)

Stocks

1.4(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Phoenix has a 111.17 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a scoring suppression mark of -0.948, which points to a tougher-than-average scoring environment. There is no specific defender matchup data to isolate beyond the listed defenders, so the matchup edge is more about team defense and pace than a single assignment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
RJ Barrett▼	Points	14.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	13	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	3	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	3	✓
RJ Barrett▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	—	50%	0	✓
RJ Barrett▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%	3	✓
RJ Barrett▼	PRA	29	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	19	✗
RJ Barrett▼	P+A	22	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	16	✓
RJ Barrett▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	16	✓
RJ Barrett▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	80%	6	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (15/20)10/2050%▼

P+A24OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (14/20)11/2055%▼

PTS21.5UNDER1%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.040; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

REB5.5OVER1%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.141▼

PRA30.5UNDER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x7/2035%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.230▼

3PM1.5UNDER3%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%+16.1% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.383▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

RJ Barrett

Points OVER 14.5HIGH

His season average is 19.0 PPG, his road average is 18.2, and the line sits well below both. Even with matchup caution, the number is low enough that it grades as the cleanest play on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Green	2	8	6	25%	38%
Devin Booker	2	4	7	33%	33%
Jordan Goodwin	2	3	3	100%	150%
Rasheer Fleming	2	2	0	0%	0%
Oso Ighodaro	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 14.564%MEDIUM

He is averaging 19.0 PPG on the season and 18.2 PPG away, which is comfortably above 14.5. The line is low enough that even with Phoenix’s scoring suppression, the over is supported by his season baseline.

reboundsOVER 4.560%MEDIUM

Barrett is at 5.4 RPG for the season, 5.5 over the last 10, and 5.6 over the last 5. His home/away splits and recent consistency point slightly above this number.

assistsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.2 APG, but the last-5 is only 2.4 and the last-10 is 2.2. With no major teammate absence creating a usage bump, 3.5 is a bit high relative to his recent distribution.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.73 made threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10. The line is below his mean, though the opponent’s three suppression keeps confidence moderate.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game this season and 0.8 over the last 5. A 0.5 line is playable, but defensive stats remain volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.573%HIGH

His season average is only 0.3 blocks per game, well below the 0.5 threshold. Even with a couple recent block games, the season baseline points to the under.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.11 stocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10. The combined number is still short of 1.5, and the variance in defensive stats makes the over less attractive.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He has 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.9 over the last 20, with recent game logs showing multiple 2+ turnover outings. The recent trend supports a slight lean over 2.0.

praOVER 2954%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 27.6 PRA, while his last-5 production is stronger at 29.2. This is a low-confidence combo prop because combo variance is higher and the season mean is slightly below the line.

paUNDER 2266%MEDIUM

Barrett’s season P+A is 22.2, but his recent assist dip keeps this close to fair value. Given the over-bias caution on combo props, the under is the safer side if the line lands around 22.0.

prUNDER 24.561%MEDIUM

His season P+R is 24.4, which is essentially in line with this number. Because his last-5 scoring is above average but rebounds are stable, this sits near true value with slight under lean.

raUNDER 8.570%HIGH

He averages 5.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists for 8.6 R+A on the season, but his recent assists have been lower. Since this is a combo prop with added variance, the under is a conservative lean.

double_doubleUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

He is not a strong double-double candidate based on 19.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 3.2 APG. None of the secondary categories are close enough to ten to make this likely.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS