AI Model:

Scottie Barnes▲

TOR · PF

PPG

18.6

RPG

7.9

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

14.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.6

18.6

14.0

RPG-0.5

7.9

7.4

APG0.0

5.4

SPG+0.2

1.4

1.6

BPG0.0

1.6

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 18 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 14 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 15 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

71%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

57%

BLK

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

64%

OVER 2

58%

PRA

UNDER 29.5FANDUEL

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.4

16.6

RPG

7.2

6.1

APG

5.2

4.4

vs PHX (H2H)7 games

PPG

16.4

RPG

6.3

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Pascal Siakam	4	26	48%	-10.2%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	22	65%	+9.8%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	22	35%	-14.9%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	21	75%

Barnes brings multi-category upside, but assists and rebounds lean under

Scottie Barnes is playing his usual heavy minutes at 34.2 per game, but his recent scoring and rebounding have cooled versus his season baseline. Over his last 5, he is at 14.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 5.4 APG, which is below his season averages of 18.6, 7.9, and 5.4. The matchup is not a pure stop spot, but Phoenix is on a back-to-back, and Toronto’s leading absence is A.J. Lawson, a small rotational hit rather than a usage spike. With his recent assist trend down at 4.2 over the last 10 and his road scoring at 16.6 PPG, the cleaner angles are on the under side for his core counting props.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.0(↓ from 18.6)

RPG

7.4(↓ from 7.9)

APG

5.4(→ from 5.4)

Key Matchup

Phoenix has a defensive rating of 111.17 and the game pace is 100, which does not create an especially fast scoring environment. There is no specific defender matchup data to target, so the read is mainly about the team environment and pace rather than a named one-on-one matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Scottie Barnes▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%	17	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	5	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%	6	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	28	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5UNDER26%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%+17.8% edge▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

REB7.5UNDER50%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 6x3/2015%+27.0% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

PRA32.5UNDER26%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x3/2015%+30.0% edge▼

P+A22UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

AST6.5OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

BLK1.5UNDER81%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%+8.3% edge▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

STL1.5UNDER9%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 7x12/2060%▼

Featured Pick

Scottie Barnes

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: the model lists UNDER 4.5 assists as the best side at multiple books, including a 9.7% edge at DraftKings. Barnes is at 5.36 APG for the season, but his last 10 has slipped to 4.2, and that recent drop lines up with the under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Booker	2	7	8	50%	50%
Oso Ighodaro	2	2	4	100%	100%
Rasheer Fleming	2	2	3	100%	150%
Khaman Maluach	2	2	4	50%	50%
Collin Gillespie	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.571%HIGH

His season mean is 18.6, but his last 5 is only 14.0 and his last 10 is 15.9, both below this line. Value data also shows UNDER at 16.5 with a 7.4% to 7.7% edge at multiple books.

reboundsUNDER 7.569%MEDIUM

Barnes is at 7.9 RPG for the season, but only 5.6 RPG over the last 10 and 7.4 over the last 5. That recent dip makes the under more appealing than the season-long average suggests.

assistsUNDER 4.574%HIGH

His season mean is 5.36 APG, but his last 10 is down to 4.2 and the value model shows the UNDER as the best side with a 9.7% edge at DraftKings. The recent trend and the lower recent distribution support fading the over.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, so he clears a 0.5 line more often than not. The edge is small, so this is a lower-confidence over.

blocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.6 blocks, but that is a volatile category and the line is set at 1.5. With standard deviation on blocks not explicitly provided here but his recent block rates fluctuating, this is a cautious under lean only.

stocksOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 2.93 stocks on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, comfortably above a projected 2.5 line. His defensive playmaking volume keeps this category viable even with some recent regression.

turnoversOVER 258%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 5, so a 2.0 line is live. The higher usage role makes turnovers a steady over candidate.

praUNDER 29.566%MEDIUM

His season profile would suggest interest, but recent form is softer: 15.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists over the last 10. Combo props carry higher variance, so the under is the safer side at this number.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS