AI Model:
C
Alex Sarr▼
WAS · C
PPG
16.5
RPG
7.3
APG
2.7
L5 PPG
12.8
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-3.7
16.5
12.8
RPG-2.7
7.3
4.6
APG-0.5
2.7
2.2
SPG+0.2
0.8
1.0
BPG+0.2
2.0
2.2
UNDER 16.5 PTS
Last 10 games
4
Current Streak
4
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
16.5
16
LAL
2026-01-30
2026-01-30 vs LAL: 16 pts
11
NYK
2026-02-03
2026-02-03 vs NYK: 11 pts
12
DET
2026-02-05
2026-02-05 vs DET: 12 pts
12
MIA
2026-02-08
2026-02-08 vs MIA: 12 pts
7
NOP
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs NOP: 7 pts
28
MIA
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs MIA: 28 pts
16
ORL
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs ORL: 16 pts
4
BOS
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs BOS: 4 pts
2
DET
2026-03-19
2026-03-19 vs DET: 2 pts
14
OKC
2026-03-21
2026-03-21 vs OKC: 14 pts
Over 16.5
Under 16.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 16.5
99%
REB
UNDER 7.5
99%
AST
UNDER 2.5
99%
3PM
UNDER 1
99%
STL
UNDER 0.5
99%
BLK
UNDER 2
99%
STL+BLK
UNDER 2.8
99%
TO
UNDER 2
99%
PRA
UNDER 26.5
99%
P+A
UNDER 19
99%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
15.8
14.9
RPG
7.9
5.8
APG
3.7
1.2
vs NYK (H2H)6 games
PPG
12.7
RPG
6.0
APG
3.2
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | 3 | 15 | 47% | -1.7% | medium |
| Moussa Diabaté | 3 | 15 | 100% | +51.6% | medium |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 3 | 14 | 86% | +24.3% | medium |
| Neemias Queta | 2 | 14 | 92% |
Injury-impact capped, but matchup and role keep the board mixed
Alex Sarr’s season line is strong at 16.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 27.1 MPG, but his recent form has cooled to 12.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.2 APG over the last 5. The biggest factor here is that he is listed as OUT, so his usual production baseline should not be projected for tonight. Washington is also on a back-to-back, which further supports a conservative stance on any over-based angle in this game.
Stat Trends
PPG
12.8(↓ from 16.5)
RPG
4.6(↓ from 7.3)
APG
2.2(↓ from 2.7)
Key Matchup
No specific defender matchup data should be used beyond the provided key defenders, and the key issue is that Sarr is OUT. The opponent data shows the Knicks with a 110.34 defensive rating and 100 pace, but injury status is the dominant factor.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Sarr▼ | Points | 16.5 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% |
Alex Sarr▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | 2/2 | 80% |
Alex Sarr▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% |
Alex Sarr▼ | 3PM | 1 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% |
Alex Sarr▼ | Steals | 0.5 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | — | 40% |
Alex Sarr▼ | Blocks | 2 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% |
Alex Sarr▼ | STL+BLK | 2.8 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | — | 80% |
Alex Sarr▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | — | 80% |
Alex Sarr▼ | PRA | 26.5 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% |
Alex Sarr▼ | P+A | 19 | UNDER | 99%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% |
ML Scout Analysis
P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 5x9/2045%▼
P+A17UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼
R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼
Featured Pick
Alex Sarr
Points UNDER 16.5HIGH
Sarr is listed as OUT, making an under on his points the clearest call. Even if one were to ignore the injury designation, his last-5 scoring average of 12.8 is well below his 16.5 season mean.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.