AI Model:

Bilal Coulibaly—

WAS · SF

PPG

11.3

RPG

4.4

APG

2.7

L5 PPG

18.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.3

11.3

18.6

RPG+1.0

4.4

5.4

APG+1.5

2.7

4.2

SPG-0.4

1.4

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 14 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 23 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 6 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 17 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 10 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 29 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 21 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 21 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5BETMGM

72%

REB

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

56%

AST

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

54%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

67%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

55%

UNDER 2

58%

PRA

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

63%

P+A

UNDER 15.5BETMGM

60%

P+R

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.8

11.6

RPG

3.4

4.6

APG

2.6

3.1

vs NYK (H2H)7 games

PPG

8.1

RPG

3.9

APG

3.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	16	56%	+14.0%	low
Paolo Banchero	4	15	46%	+0.1%	medium
Anthony Edwards	2	13	58%	+8.4%	low
Tyrese Maxey	3	13	25%

Coulibaly’s role boost keeps points and stocks in play, but efficiency and B2B risk lean cautious

Bilal Coulibaly is trending up in usage with multiple Wizards absences, and his last 5 show 18.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.2 APG across 32.6 MPG. That said, his season baseline is much lower at 11.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 2.7 APG, so the recent surge should be blended back toward the season mean. The matchup is not a clear shutdown spot, but Washington is on a back-to-back and his season b2b scoring sits at just 9.43 PPG, which tempers the ceiling. His best path remains defensive production and a reasonable scoring line, with the strongest value showing up on the under side of his inflated points number.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.6(↑ from 11.3)

RPG

5.4(↑ from 4.4)

APG

4.2(↑ from 2.7)

Stocks

2.0(→ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data to target beyond the listed key defenders, so the defensive read is general rather than player-specific. New York’s opponent profile shows a 110.34 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -1.138 scoring suppression, which is not an obvious green light for overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	40%	13	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	3	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	5	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	3	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	PRA	20.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	20	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	15	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS12.5OVER9%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PRA19.5OVER1%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB4.5UNDER8%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R18UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

BLK0.5OVER12%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +2.0▼

R+A7UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

AST2.5UNDER5%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.082▼

3PM1.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Bilal Coulibaly

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because the line sits above his season average of 11.3 PPG and the value data shows a 9.2% edge on the under at BetMGM. His recent scoring has spiked to 18.6 PPG over the last 5, but Washington is on a back-to-back and his b2b scoring average is only 9.43 PPG, which makes the under the most defensible side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	3	11	8	33%	39%
OG Anunoby	2	7	6	100%	100%
Mikal Bridges	2	2	0	0%	0%
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	2	5	100%	125%
Josh Hart	2	2	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 13.572%HIGH

His season mean is 11.3 PPG and his recent 15.8 PPG is elevated relative to that baseline. He is also on a back-to-back, and his b2b scoring average is only 9.43 PPG, which supports the under.

reboundsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

He averages 4.4 RPG on the season and 4.6 RPG over the last 10, with 5.4 RPG in his last 5. The line is close, but increased minutes and teammate absences give him a fair shot to clear 4.5.

assistsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.7 APG on the season and 3.1 APG over the last 10, while the last 5 have climbed to 4.2 APG. The trend is positive, but variance is meaningful, so confidence stays modest.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.17 threes per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, with 2.4 fg3mpg in the last 5. The recent volume is strong enough to justify the over despite normal regression risk.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 spg on the season, but the 1.5 line is slightly above that baseline and his last 10 steal rate is only 1.0. This is a thin edge, and the B2B adds some downside.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 bpg on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, so clearing 0.5 is very realistic. Even with some recent volatility, the baseline is strong enough to favor the over.

stocksUNDER 2.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.29 and his last 10 is 1.7, so a projected 2.5 is a bit aggressive. He can get there, but the recent dip makes the under the safer side.

turnoversUNDER 258%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.5 over the last 10, so a 2.0 line would sit above his typical range. The recent role increase helps volume, but not enough to push this above his normal turnover profile.

praUNDER 20.563%MEDIUM

His season line profile is 11.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, which sums to well below 20.5 on a true baseline. Recent production is hotter, but combo props are higher-variance and this number is still demanding.

paUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 14.0, and his recent 5-game form is elevated but not enough to make 15.5 a comfortable over. Back-to-back conditions also argue against pushing the ceiling too hard.

prUNDER 17.561%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds seasonally sits at 15.7, and his recent increase still leaves this line somewhat rich. The market is pricing in a strong scoring night, but his season baseline does not fully support it.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS